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Paul

Model output discussion - into July 2020

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Yesterdays 0z ECM gave us a new hope, today's is just zonal, with a 24 hour blink and you'll miss it plume.

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Posted (edited)

In order of favour this morning good to bad ICON, GEM, GFS & UKMO, but to be honest there's not a lot in it but UKMO probably the poorest as the low is slightly further north at T144, my reading initially is that being further north at T144 indicates a slightly flatter Jet with it being slightly further south I think it suggest more of a buckled jet with a possibly of the low stalling west a touch and heading more SW/NE opposed to straight west to east. At the other end of the scale ICON @ T180 produces arguably the best chart of summer (even though it looks as though it was heading for being an enormous outlier) and I'd love to see what it would have produced a T192/204. 

GFS probably a decent middle ground and it sit well within its ensembles, GEM more towards the top. Still this is a week away and MASSIVE caution is required, there is a massive spread in all the ensembles, we could easily end up with a 3 or 4 day hot spell with temps into the 30s or a low just blasting straight west to east across the UK and it being cool and breezy - More runs needed......

Edit - ECM ok-ish very brief through days D8-10 but does engage 15-20C 850s just need it to slow down. 

 

ICOOPEU00_180_2.png

Edited by Alderc
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image.thumb.png.0224249be94800921d5697566ceb8c02.png

ECM 00z is warm on Friday and hot on Saturday. A good swathe of the London area is over 30c by this point. 850s are actually above 20c for the SE corner by midday saturday.

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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

There are a lot of pessimists in this thread at the best of times, but I think you win first prize! I really don't get this post, the ECM run is no worse than last night's, and is in some ways better- there does seem to be a fair chance of a short much warmer spell which I think most of us would take with both hands.

I've not been expecting any more heat so to me this ECM run is rather decent- it would at least give us a hot day in these parts and probably a couple of very warm days as well. There is also the chance of the westward progression of the low to be slower than currently being shown which could extend the spell.

There is at least something of interest in this run which I think we've all been crying out for in such an immensely tedious and disappointing summer month so far.

Yeah - nothing has really changed. Even yesterday it was only looking like Friday and Saturday would get a brief blast of warmth or heat before it's swept away.

The AAM forecast I've been keeping tabs on is still rising to positive by August. Surely it can't be wrong at 7 days notice?! ECM monthly shows first week of August as mainly unsettled, before an improvement....response to rising AAM? Let's hope so and try and salvage something from this wreck of a summer.

image.thumb.png.4eea0246a9f6088bb8065dc4e3a97110.png
 

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5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

There are a lot of pessimists in this thread at the best of times, but I think you win first prize! I really don't get this post, the ECM run is no worse than last night's, and is in some ways better- there does seem to be a fair chance of a short much warmer spell which I think most of us would take with both hands.

I've not been expecting any more heat so to me this ECM run is rather decent- it would at least give us a hot day in these parts and probably a couple of very warm days as well. There is also the chance of the westward progression of the low to be slower than currently being shown which could extend the spell.

There is at least something of interest in this run which I think we've all been crying out for in such an immensely tedious and disappointing summer month so far.

Was gona say the same thing!!in actual fact it looks better than last nights run!!lovely couple of hot days for england🔥

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Posted (edited)

Definite signs of a little more Azores influence going out towards mid month and the end of next month, especially for more SW/S areas going on the EC weeklies .. Ridges being thrown up a little more consistently at this stage... Its a long way off but hopefully it's onto something, and perhaps we could end our Summer on a little more of a positive note. 

Edited by MATT☀️
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seeing all these models and people talking about plumes is good, but it also seem like people have forgotten how difficult it is trying to sleep when we have a plume over us 😄. So yes, plume during the day is nice, but during the night it can go back to France.

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Posted (edited)

Not going to make a call for the end of next week yet, a semi-cut off low to our west which could move through the U.K. quite quickly or sink close to the Azores depending on multiple factors. The Navgem shows clearly what happens if things go right here.

Decent ECM this morning, temperatures probably peaking at around 32c in the east and the breakdown looks quite messy with plenty of warm air still in place.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

00z ICON is exceptional this morning, what a chart 🤩👏

533167799_icon-0-180(1).thumb.png.6e81214ed7cd6c6c9c4b688fde8f6b35.png   icon-1-180.thumb.png.2f17a1be5464f1de4e7432acd918e2e5.png

As I said earlier probably the best chart of the entire summer. 

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55 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

seeing all these models and people talking about plumes is good, but it also seem like people have forgotten how difficult it is trying to sleep when we have a plume over us 😄. So yes, plume during the day is nice, but during the night it can go back to France.

lol - you go to bed, close your eyes and fall asleep.....its really difficult....always amazes me people to struggle to sleep with a couple of night that barely fall into the warm category. If we had overnight mins in the high 20s or 30s and no AC I would understand but mins of 15-18C these comments just make me laugh. 

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EC clusters now pretty confident that the Atlantic low will hang back long enough at D7 to allow a continental influence

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072400_168.

Probably over by D9 but not a categorical picture - the low seems to be losing intensity as it reaches the UK.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072400_216.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

There are a lot of pessimists in this thread at the best of times, but I think you win first prize! I really don't get this post, the ECM run is no worse than last night's, and is in some ways better- there does seem to be a fair chance of a short much warmer spell which I think most of us would take with both hands.

I've not been expecting any more heat so to me this ECM run is rather decent- it would at least give us a hot day in these parts and probably a couple of very warm days as well. There is also the chance of the westward progression of the low to be slower than currently being shown which could extend the spell.

There is at least something of interest in this run which I think we've all been crying out for in such an immensely tedious and disappointing summer month so far.

It's your opinion that I'm a pessimist, I only say what I see, others can see differently as they wish and of course depending on where they live.

In my opinion the overnight ECM 0z is worse than the previous as it does not hang the low back as long. 

I also alluded to the 24 hour plume in my post.

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean there’s a brief window of opportunity for summer proper to return, me thinks it was only ever going to be a brief affair but anything that throws a spanner in the Atlantic dominance will do for me as we are now firmly into the dog days of summer..looking forward to winter already, jeez did I really say that??..for sure I’m a glutton for punishment!😜🔥:girl_devil:

EF20FE84-7E8E-4F51-8CAD-28049E4D8EC1.thumb.gif.823ee419fae337f05ef71b24c19e1890.gif01265E3B-F5C2-4FC2-8E82-8B252CF5E450.thumb.gif.7f3a2d4f6be4d6a6797fc16a0f1f9e29.gif6EBE6C77-9CD0-4636-8D61-F90BAF854778.thumb.gif.ca0231e68c8e522dabe107fc5415f6da.gifDE23C53A-AAEE-4F8C-9AC2-824907544A6B.thumb.gif.be48ef44d0750ee3d16d398c7531a98e.gif

Edited by JON SNOW
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GFS 06Z shifts everything through pretty quickly later next however most of the ensembles would deliver a 30C on the Saturday too. Would be ironic if that happened as it would guarantee that even though whats likely to be a pretty naff summer all three summer months would hit 30C.  

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Well whatever the models show London is having and probably will continue to have a splendid spell of weather. 26c again today with good sunny spells. 

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Just as we thought we would experience the first July in a number of years to not record 30C, the models throw up these charts for the final day!  However, unlikely to have much of an effect on the overall monthly CET which will be the first cooler than average month of 2020.

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Another crazy cold CFS monthly temp anomalies October plus all of December to March showing colder than average again

Screenshot_20200724-144800_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-144813_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-144821_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-144826_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-144830_Samsung Internet.jpg

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29 minutes ago, Don said:

Just as we thought we would experience the first July in a number of years to not record 30C, the models throw up these charts for the final day!  However, unlikely to have much of an effect on the overall monthly CET which will be the first cooler than average month of 2020.

Just had a gander at the 7 month EC anomalies Don, and its going for a warmer than average August and September... October November and December perhaps on the cold side, with January being warmer than average.... These update once a month... 2010 repeat anyone.. 😉

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Is next weeks plume going to materialise or is this just the models luring everyone on a trip down the disappointment street for the umpteenth time this summer? Plenty of time this could turn into a classic four/five day hot spell ending with a glorious humid big bang or it could just be a one day, mid 20s supreme before it all quietly whimpers away. 

Meanwhile if the JMA for August is right it will mean yet another unsettled August,  low pressure and the Atlantic well and truly in charge with a S'ly tracking jet.    

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Posted (edited)

Just as I posted the 12z CFS the 18z updated which also yet again shows a cold anomaly for every winter month, this time December is the coldest month of the next 8months

Screenshot_20200724-153928_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-153933_Samsung Internet.jpg

 

Screenshot_20200724-153938_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200724-154246_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

These update once a month... 2010 repeat anyone.. 😉

Nah, December 2015 please!  You believe that and you'll believe anything!! 🤪  A December and January 2010 repeat would be awesome!  I wouldn't complain about winter for at least another year! 😉

Edited by Don
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