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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.e1622b3cf8c6660890c6b4d01d9324c6.png

    An ever growing number of ensemble members on the 6z ensemble showing something akin to the ECM/GEM this morning. 6z OP doesn't quite make it, but a window of opportunity is there for sure..

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 06Z ensembles look interesting, in a who-knows-what-that-means? kind of way::oldlaugh:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I suspect increased interest in the 12z runs tonight, given the ECM and GEM 0z - are we headed towards a plume end of next week?  

    First up ICON 180:

    E2D7D048-308F-40A5-9832-E3ACCFBDB302.thumb.png.bc6a7088508882f3620826f6d1811648.pngDDEE1212-F0A7-4690-B628-A1203CA8BE84.thumb.png.3aba228e6c7f8fe820131e8bf707cc55.png

    Promising, but maybe the real action beyond the end of the run.

    Could be our last, and only, plume hope of the year. Desperate times

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I suspect increased interest in the 12z runs tonight, given the ECM and GEM 0z - are we headed towards a plume end of next week?  

    First up ICON 180:

    E2D7D048-308F-40A5-9832-E3ACCFBDB302.thumb.png.bc6a7088508882f3620826f6d1811648.pngDDEE1212-F0A7-4690-B628-A1203CA8BE84.thumb.png.3aba228e6c7f8fe820131e8bf707cc55.png

    Promising, but maybe the real action beyond the end of the run.

    It’s worth noting there’s a plume of sorts next Tuesday but we are set to miss out Benelux east, it’s only a one day affair so we’re not missing out on much. I don’t see much potential other than a very brief plume but I guess this is better than where we were before. More changeable weather which is welcome as it’s been a stalemate this July.  

    AAE9674E-B641-4373-BFE0-ADE5DBF5BF2A.thumb.png.4048343a3bbedb723166ff2900f31f1e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    It’s worth noting there’s a plume of sorts next Tuesday but we are set to miss out Benelux east, it’s only a one day affair so we’re not missing out on much. I don’t see much potential other than a very brief plume but I guess this is better than where we were before. More changeable weather which is welcome as it’s been a stalemate this July.  

    AAE9674E-B641-4373-BFE0-ADE5DBF5BF2A.thumb.png.4048343a3bbedb723166ff2900f31f1e.png

    The stalemate this week has been pretty bloody good for the SE! I’ve been on an off road biking tour across Essex and Suffolk and have a good tan. Lots of sunshine around and some lovely warm days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GFS has 14c uppers in the SE

    @210

    gfseuw-1-210.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z GFS has 14c uppers in the SE

    @210

    gfseuw-1-210.png

    I think UKMO would have been much better if it had gone that far, at T144 it is less half hearted with the ridge than the GFS, makes more of it, which would result in a better plume down the line.  GFS first:

    00BC9645-2BD5-4429-B99F-7E0620E4073B.thumb.png.9cb8a09f4bb3ede5ef17c2ed94beb912.png216C5076-715F-4156-968D-A676C0804974.thumb.gif.e87d876322683663412b0f2df28a4989.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z GFS has 14c uppers in the SE

    @210

    gfseuw-1-210.png

    One day wonder and only the extreme south east benefits a strong westerly cools the surface back to low 20s for most - not really a plume and certainly wouldn't deliver any TS activity. Really need to that low to slow down significantly but with a 100knts jet core aimed at the south west thats the last thing that will happen. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Subtle differences in the profile of the Jet at 300mbs between GFS and GEM meaning the GEM would probably deliver two more reasonably widespread warm days than GFS but given the continued over egging of warmth and 850's of GEM recently I wouldn't exactly back it. 

     

     

    GFSOPEU12_168_21.png

    GEMOPEU12_168_21.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEM has the low out west better orientated T144 for UK plume than either GFS or UKMO:

    C80E53AC-0273-4842-82C7-DEE2305FA591.thumb.png.c7a14c57a25439367076e6526457e063.png

    Move on to T192, and the plume is evident:

    E30292AB-24AE-49A7-BA72-84094E4DB8BA.thumb.png.c0e10621f8b2bd047053a87802efa4bf.pngF164E82D-6E90-4A9C-90AE-36EDACF541D7.thumb.png.d97e45691869a12b96d3e2c3b064f945.png

    Plenty of time for this to correct more favourably as well.  Interesting model output again...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    One day wonder and only the extreme south east benefits a strong westerly cools the surface back to low 20s for most - not really a plume and certainly wouldn't deliver any TS activity. Really need to that low to slow down significantly but with a 100knts jet core aimed at the south west thats the last thing that will happen. 

    That's the GFS though. ICON and GEM are much better and would probably be better scenarios for any thunderstorm activity.

    Speaking of the GEM, this looks pretty good for the SE if you ask me:

    gemeuw-0-198.thumb.png.748334bdc58d43eaf9286cd2cd5fdc25.png   gemeuw-1-198.thumb.png.b1feaefeff1ac12f783dc0dd3de611f2.png

    Plenty of time for a westward correction too as @Mike Poole has mentioned above.

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144, more plumeworthy than any of the others in my opinion, should be interesting later on in the run, comparison is with GEM at same time:

    B1937162-8CEF-4856-A907-6727A9603D66.thumb.gif.13bfa146fe808ad8c5622dfd15f51430.gif9FF265BF-ECEF-4E46-B7CB-45AC32E8BD7B.thumb.png.e86a842af1197083f5fb6e28f9efcbb4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @168

    67166022_ECM1-168(3).thumb.gif.1fccfe842ca7009ec360a7a441746ea2.gif

    👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Yes Zak it's looking more interesting for sure.. Will be looking forward to the EC46 take on it later...all this talk of plums... I mean plumes is making me hungry... For the love of God... Bring us a plume, we've been waiting over a month.. 

    ECM1-168.gif

    ECM0-168.gif

    Shuffle-Cross_anim_3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Forgot to post this morning but here are the 00z ECM clusters @192:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072300_192.thumb.png.17fbca170cfd302f5e2926f7cb31cad6.png

    Clusters 3 and 4 look very good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I ain't been so excited for ages... Get a life Matt.. 🤣

    ECM1-192.gif

    ECM0-192.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    18c uppers clipping the SE @216

    943402564_ECM1-216(3).thumb.gif.c801a9a1db6117ed29e657c93bf0735e.gif   536012783_ECM0-216(2).thumb.gif.1ece730cbe7e3435d3365118e2e7b8e9.gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    We will need it to stall a bit more - it’s a very quick glancing blow! As the warmer air only arrives Thursday into Friday, maxes on Friday are only around 25-26c, which isn’t anything special for late July. We’ve just had that the last couple of days! Saturday is more of a ‘hot’ day with 27-29c in the E/SE. All about the corrections as @Steve Murr says.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    We will need it to stall a bit more - it’s a very quick glancing blow! As the warmer air only arrives Thursday into Friday, maxes on Friday are only around 25-26c, which isn’t anything special for late July. We’ve just had that the last couple of days! Saturday is more of a ‘hot’ day with 27-29c in the E/SE. All about the corrections as @Steve Murr says.

    Yes I totally agree with this, the GEM 0z was about the bounds of the envelope of current model runs, but this is over a week away at the moment, there is a significant chance of a westwards correction, and it is well worth watching on the models over the next few days, the models might have it properly nailed by Monday, maybe?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    JMA very much on board, here T192:

    A9EBDB24-FA7D-4EF0-9B22-DF70431873E4.thumb.gif.acb9f1e895a4a96d6e6b642b7d68616a.gif35CA0A76-7B5E-4403-B182-6CA6E0287B56.thumb.gif.136ed6a6f5261c5bbc237925c9080244.gif

    At T144 it was more favouring ECM and GEM than the others...

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