Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into July 2020


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    This looks good for the SE

    @216

    1287342456_ECM1-216(2).thumb.gif.9e88115e4c1404ff8265b3a204def1f5.gif   1983337719_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.2a68a15c368335a78fb58613e080216b.gif

    Could perhaps be a thundery one too...

    Back the pattern west a bit and we’d be in business there!

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ECM 12z is horrifically wet for NW U.K. a significant deterioration is gathering momentum there.

    37312548-26C6-441E-9072-6D16A992F44B.thumb.png.12251aac0c746ee57d6bb4286c96b363.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Perhaps in the ECM 12z we’re seeing some initial correction to account for the AAM ‘bounce’ as Tamara coined it yesterday.

    Of course, just a little slowing of the trough doesn’t do us much good overall - warmer at times but at the heavy cost of a lot more rainfall.

    So, we could do with further adjustments toward a slower trough that expends more of its energy to our west.

    Or troughs - that one for Mon-Tue has undergone notable slowing as well, on the ECM run. UKMO is also slow with it, much as the 00z was.

    GFS is quick, though, so I’m not hanging my hat on any possibilities with that one.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    On the face of it, T+216 ECM 12z op looks summery doesn’t it?..but it doesn’t tell the true / full story and T+240 looks frankly autumnal but I’m not showing that chart!!..I will leave that to someone else!!!😜

    AED24655-4981-49B2-9E4B-7D8CB348F6A3.thumb.png.8055491c28736c5fcb02bf9f7f98ea9b.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Hmmm 🤔 Not bad in the grand scheme of things . 

    948532C7-4C1B-4DAE-8245-74A1F6D8F944.png

    B8448EBB-475E-4238-8421-A8FC2735DC1C.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    57 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM 12z is horrifically wet for NW U.K. a significant deterioration is gathering momentum there.

    37312548-26C6-441E-9072-6D16A992F44B.thumb.png.12251aac0c746ee57d6bb4286c96b363.png

    Looks great down here in Kent😃. Amazing I left the North today 18c on the car thermometer cloudy and spots of rain got to Cambridge 23c Sunny then back home and its 26c on the car thermometer! Such a huge difference

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    38 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Looks great down here in Kent😃. Amazing I left the North today 18c on the car thermometer cloudy and spots of rain got to Cambridge 23c Sunny then back home and its 26c on the car thermometer! Such a huge difference

    It was really brought home to me on return a few days ago from a holiday in the north - deep green grass further north with sunshine rare, but very yellow grass in the south and lots of hot sunshine back in Portsmouth. 

    Looking at the models, I suspect more of the same to come except the south joining in with the autumnal stuff on occasional days. 

    ECM projected temps for that warmer day next Friday (which can normally be knocked up a couple of degrees in reality) : 24-27C in the SE, 20-24C for central + eastern England, 16-19C for north and west. Sums it up. 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    An uninspiring ECM 12Z. Just a chance for some warm air to transit the far SE at T+216 but that's wishful thinking at this stage and the end of July and into August maintain the cool and unsettled theme for many with a lot of rain for the far NW of Scotland (not unusual).

    GFS 12Z OP also moderate - I imagine some will be pinning their hopes on a "plume" at T+372 - good luck with that. Control somewhat better as it finally breaks the Azores HP cell and sends it NE to the British Isles but that's far FI so we'll see.

    Just seen GEM 12Z OP - well, yes.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Hmmm 🤔 Not bad in the grand scheme of things . 

    948532C7-4C1B-4DAE-8245-74A1F6D8F944.png

    B8448EBB-475E-4238-8421-A8FC2735DC1C.png

    How’s your sponsorship deal with NAVGEM treating you @Mark wheeler? 😁

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.eca8546a14d8f2ca48eea6671bc821f6.pngimage.thumb.png.141010b5285e092ae59f0d0d78e60a07.png

    GEM showing the plume set up again around next Friday/Saturday. 

    There is also a little bit of GFS ensemble support:

    image.thumb.png.694d1deaf44786f3e2298b335def318f.png

    One to watch isn what will otherwise be a fairly disappointing summer week for the UK.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.02c8988e262b17be6cd48cd56f89f6a0.png

    Well then...

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Holy Mackerel Batman..this is a better ECM than last nights 12z!:shok:😜 🦇 ..I did mention something about plumes yesterday!🤓

    0A372322-AF04-48EF-BD35-0ABBBF06B153.thumb.png.8d1fa0036ab693564f2b190e555f64be.png1303AE34-44E8-454C-81F7-74341B8638D9.thumb.png.73818f57d05b67ae9fc5de3745a0ad7d.pngF24BB782-1CBB-4D73-BEA1-C7F147B2B5DD.thumb.png.33e3f51a8fc9e980956742c6b979a27f.png372D3DA4-4CD8-42AA-8743-D9A87EFA2FE3.thumb.png.5ba3c1eff3e3fafbeb75318434b11b79.png546E2039-E7B7-4B5C-A785-90A327BD7915.thumb.png.f04ca124def7dde8d5cacc742a38fadd.png

    3E4029FB-0D68-4170-8922-694CAF37DB5E.png1E3B80DE-77FA-47A1-B8AB-5AB731274693.thumb.png.6a6492b500fdad28e4b07fe0b26c51c3.png8299C830-619E-4FE9-A0F3-7E0C06B0E735.thumb.png.d92ffa14469479260ff58797d3cb4fc7.png474ADCAF-E068-4537-B753-2E69037FABB9.thumb.png.347627cbaf5ce09d2ecd55f794e04f11.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Where did that ECM come from??

    Has Summer been saved from the jaws of defeat? Or is it a massive outlier?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

     

    6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Where did that ECM come from??

    Has Summer been saved from the jaws of defeat? Or is it a massive outlier?

    image.thumb.png.e69322bebe256caff15c14681911ee7a.png

    Bah humbug. Outlier sadly. Still - one to keep tabs on. The op run is higher res so could be on to something.

     

    Edited by mb018538
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Thursday 23 July

    Ec-gfs and ec shows quite a change from the last ‘umpteen’ days but not gfs! EC has small +ve heights affecting the uk but to me it does not look very realistic, gfs does not show nor does noaa. Best wait and see if the others follow suite.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM not alone, GEM has +20C uppers clipping the SE at T234.

    5DCC9F19-9366-408F-8974-017A5AAC02C2.thumb.png.832541f46992ce9d448bcb926f00a61f.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z at T+207... I wonder how it'll develop, and what a TS remnant might send our way:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro appears to throw the cat on the table at day 7 even if temporary.

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

    GFS has a weaker pressure build due to the low over Scandinavia leaving slower and the low in the Atlantic approaching faster, thus we get one day of warm uppers before the front moves through. 

    spacer.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    Where did that ECM come from??

    Has Summer been saved from the jaws of defeat? Or is it a massive outlier?

    Its only transitory, not a pattern change and is probably rather amplified.

    The outlook according to the noaa remains mobile and unsettled, but we could get a nice day here and there as ridges cross between systems , but with negative pressure anomaly over us, and a mean upper trough to our near northwest its not looking very dry for long.



     

    814day.03 aug.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Clusters this morning show the opportunity again for a small ridge around D8/D9, but unlikely to hold back the Atlantic for long given the balance of clusters by D10

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072300_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072300_240.

    Longer term, the clusters continue to suggest the UK may get stuck between ridges, though the smaller clusters (3 and 4) provide small hope of ridges to the east being strong enough to hold the Atlantic back 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072300_324.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    For the first time in absolutely ages... I have woken up to a positive set of runs. 😄

    The ECM and GEM are stonkers, ECM an outlier unfortunately but does show a trend of something plume-like...

    This is the 00z ICON @180. Doesn't go any further but also shows the kind of setup you would see before a plume.

    icon-0-180.png

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    For the first time in absolutely ages... I have woken up to a positive set of runs. 😄

    The ECM and GEM are stonkers, ECM an outlier unfortunately but does show a trend of something plume-like...

    This is the 00z ICON @180. Doesn't go any further but also shows the kind of setup you would see before a plume.

    icon-0-180.png

    Agreed Zak, I mentioned yesterday about catching a break from Atlantic dominance and enabling some plume potential, which mostly fell on deaf ears but whatever, I continue to believe the jet will buckle for a time and kinks in the isobars will bring at least some very warm / hot air to parts of the s / se..and possibly more of the u k will be involved?..time will reveal all!!!😜

    Edited by JON SNOW
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...