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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    No sugar coating the model output, it's horrendous, particularly for the North West.

    Cloud, rain and wind are prominent with just the odd drier day between systems.

     

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

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    Been keeping an eye on things for signs of change. The CFS AAM forecast has had positive bias all summer....but has stuck like a dog with a bone to a rise in AAM for the 1st August for a few days now. As it's only 9 days away, hopefully it's actually on the money this time, and we can perhaps look for an improvement through or after the first week in August. Until then - the last week of July is looking poor again, with a deep-ish low affecting the UK this weekend, and potentially another one next weekend after another fairly cool and unsettled week to close out a very disappointing July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

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    Been keeping an eye on things for signs of change. The CFS AAM forecast has had positive bias all summer....but has stuck like a dog with a bone to a rise in AAM for the 1st August for a few days now. As it's only 9 days away, hopefully it's actually on the money this time, and we can perhaps look for an improvement through or after the first week in August. Until then - the last week of July is looking poor again, with a deep-ish low affecting the UK this weekend, and potentially another one next weekend after another fairly cool and unsettled week to close out a very disappointing July.

    Do you have any analogues maps for rising GLAAM in August? It's neat that it predicts weakly positive almost the turn of the month, so if true will be interesting to see the outcome. I can't find analogues maps for Europe based on that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    Well back from hols, and to my surprise just the slightest suggestion from the clusters that we could squeeze in a plume before the month ends

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072112_240.

    The Atlantic low only has to stall slightly to allow a surge from the south - even a near miss on a plume might mean 30C at this time of year. Cluster 4 best placed for this, cluster 2/3 close. Much easier to see these sort of charts upgrade in summer than wintry charts in winter. It's give it a 30% chance right now. Maybe just maybe this July could escape the indignity of not one day reaching 30C which is so unusual these days. 

    Just to follow this up - this morning's ECM ensembles are slightly less optimistic that last night's for a surprise plume - only 10 out of 51 members have notable heat over the UK by D9/D10 (and that's mainly for the eastern side) - so it's still low odds on a short/sharp heatwave next weekend, but, staying positive, it's only a small correction away. The smart money I'm afraid is still on a generally unsettled end to the month with perhaps a day or two that is slightly warmer in the run-up to next weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    39 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    Do you have any analogues maps for rising GLAAM in August? It's neat that it predicts weakly positive almost the turn of the month, so if true will be interesting to see the outcome. I can't find analogues maps for Europe based on that. 

    It all depends on if we get some movement over the Pacific side.

    Pretty much all of summer thus far has seen the Pacific in a suppressed convective state without any movement, which keeps AAM negative and tends to lead to NW Europe troughing:

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    Some ensemble members are now starting to move things eastwards as we head into August (note the orange 'suppressed' and blue 'active' areas nudging to the right as time progresses):

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    This movement of the convective area eastwards would help to lift AAM. Both the ECM and CFS show this around the turn of the month - not guaranteed to happen or even give us settled weather here, but could mix things up from the stuck pattern we've had for weeks.

    Matt Hugo has linked an anomaly chart for August GWO phase 4/5 (which is where this rise could take us), which still has a UK trough anyway.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z nae too bad at T+222::oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The ECM clusters confirm my suspicions that hot and sunny weather is currently projected to be mostly out of reach for the UK. If following the four charts for D8, D10, D12 and D14, the overall picture is of pulses of heights moving from SW to NE through central Europe, with a slow moving trough the most likely outcome for the UK - just the chance of a gap between D8 and around D11 for something slightly better:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072200_192.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072200_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072200_300.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072200_348.

    Potential variations could allow SE areas to join in with the continental influence at times, or the control run cluster we see the trough making fairly quick progress - but equally the chance is there for the trough to get stuck over the UK.

    Not a write-off, but not particularly confidence inspiring, and hard to see how N/W areas will see much joy at all except just maybe a day or two around the turn of the month.

    We have historically seen plumes correct west from such charts but considering how the jet has been in the past month, I'd actually be pinning my hopes more upon the whole pattern shifting east rather than west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Whisper it but I actually have a good feeling about later next week and into the start of august looking at the GEFS 6z, I’m seeing some potential for an influx of continental air from the s / se..I actually think we could catch a break from the cooler Atlantic airflow in the not too distant future..watch this space!😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    33 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

    Whisper it but I actually have a good feeling about later next week and into the start of august looking at the GEFS 6z, I’m seeing some potential for an influx of continental air from the s / se..I actually think we could catch a break from the cooler Atlantic airflow in the not too distant future..watch this space!😜

    The mean perhaps picks up on that potentially better spell Karl.. I'm hoping you do a repeat of last year when you picked up on a plume 2 weeks out... Come on mate start reading them teabags again.. 🤣

    Excellent summary Tams... 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Nothing but mobile and unsettled here ...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Nothing but mobile and unsettled here ...

     

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    Shame on me for picking that promising GFS mean.. Tut tut. 🤣Yes Rob it has to be said Exter seems to agree with those NOAA charts you have posted. Very mixed into the 1st part of August, perhaps more settled later.. EC46 hinted at this, but it's a long way off.. But this next 2 week period does look far from settled, I hate to say it because it's driving me nuts, but it does look the more sensible call going on the 46 and those NOAA charts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Nothing but mobile and unsettled here ...

     

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    Great weather for cruising the Arctic me thinks. Tromso

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    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS12Z out to day 10 ends almost exactly the same as this mornings Euro with the Atlantic firmly in control. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I view the GFS 12z and I think roll on Winter and perhaps some decent cold and snow action... Looking at runs like this are making me think roll on next Summer for hopefully a much more interesting pattern. Truelly shocking is this run, but it is what it is. 

    Edit.. GEM is not much better at 180hrs.

    I've just noticed by reading back my post, I'm saying roll on Winter and next Summer all in one sentence.. That's model fatigue for ya.. 😂

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    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    GFS12Z out to day 10 ends almost exactly the same as this mornings Euro with the Atlantic firmly in control. 

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    What do you expect, Mid Jul to late Aug, probably the most Atlantic dominated 6 weeks of the year, behind Dec to late Feb

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    UKMO 12Z for 6days is unsettled, probably a good thing its output is only 6days as well, GEM & GFS just cool and blustery - would be decent weather in the middle of October at least I should miss a week of the dross but nothing longer range to indicate that we coming back to the UK on the 3rd August anything will be any different. I would look look forward to winter but I dislike it even more than the weather that most of the rest of the year brings which I why I don't subject you to my posting Oct-Apr......

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GEM is pretty decent for the SE, storm potential on that run too

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    UKMO 12Z for 6days is unsettled, probably a good thing its output is only 6days as well, GEM & GFS just cool and blustery - would be decent weather in the middle of October at least I should miss a week of the dross but nothing longer range to indicate that we coming back to the UK on the 3rd August anything will be any different. I would look look forward to winter but I dislike it even more than the weather that most of the rest of the year brings which I why I don't subject you to my posting Oct-Apr......

    We would all be reaching for the valium if you did... Seriously though enjoy ya Hols and stay safe... ☀️🤣

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    12z GEM is pretty decent for the SE, storm potential on that run too

    gemeuw-0-210.thumb.png.148585119b099e1b0a1a91f85c87e7b2.png   gemeuw-1-222.thumb.png.e37db4ebcfaa544e06b51b99b4d7dac0.png

    I think the problem with the GEM run is that it’s uppers are just too optimistic - it’s overdone warmth at both the surface and 850 level almost all summer and across a wide geographical area. But something to cling on too nevertheless. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    What do you expect, Mid Jul to late Aug, probably the most Atlantic dominated 6 weeks of the year, behind Dec to late Feb

    I expect better than that trash in high summer. Mid July to mid August is also the warmest period of the year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    1 hour ago, MATT☀️ said:

    I view the GFS 12z and I think roll on Winter and perhaps some decent cold and snow action... Looking at runs like this are making me think roll on next Summer for hopefully a much more interesting pattern. Truelly shocking is this run, but it is what it is. 

    Edit.. GEM is not much better at 180hrs.

    I've just noticed by reading back my post, I'm saying roll on Winter and next Summer all in one sentence.. That's model fatigue for ya.. 😂

    There's an element who have been looking forward to solar minimum for winter influence ... it has f......d summer, can it save winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

    Let me preface this by acknowledging as ever that I live in the far South East and i realise this may not be everyone's experience.... BUT...

    It does seem weird that everyone has been complaining so bitterly about the poor weather coming soon for such a long time. We had three pleasant, sunny days last week, Saturday was glorious, and now Monday through Wednesday has also been beautiful. 

    Given the level of uncertainty beyond the weekend, and the fact that the best model (recently), the UKMO, recently had things decent for next week and is showing far greater inconsistency than usual, I'd advise people enjoy the current weather and have some patience... and read Tamara's post...

    Edited by wellington boot
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM is a bit 'meh' so far

    @120

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    This looks good for the SE

    @216

    1287342456_ECM1-216(2).thumb.gif.9e88115e4c1404ff8265b3a204def1f5.gif   1983337719_ECM0-216(1).thumb.gif.2a68a15c368335a78fb58613e080216b.gif

    Could perhaps be a thundery one too...

    Edited by Zak M
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