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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Just to add some weight to John's post above regarding tonight's EC 46...its pretty much a non event out to the 12th of August.. I'm still waiting for it to update out to mid month and beyond.... But to sum up we have a situation of Low Pressure to the NW very often and the Azores High is displaced far to much SW to have any telling influence. The flow is mainly Wstly and so the temps are never anything to write home about... 20-22c for the far SE... mid teens to high teens much further North.. This run is miles away from last Thursdays... I'm still hoping for that improvement Exter mentioned by mid month, but still awaiting on this... 

But as it stands I think Alderc said earlier that another Summer like this could be 7 or 8 years before another... I hope your right mate.. 

Still know signs of Summer proper out to the 15th..Annoyingly temperatures are struggling also... To say average is an understatement! This is a long way out though and can obviously change.. Anyway I've had enough now, the run is depressing me.. 🤣

 

Edited by MATT☀️
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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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GFS rolling out doesnt look too bad heading into next week and nothing like the cold rubbish we've had. Onwards and upwards from now on . 

Meanwhile Yakutsk in Russia that reaches -40C in winter are enjoying days on end of 30C Plus this summer. Wonder if our bad weather has something to do it?? 

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Tuesday 21 July

Almost a week since my last update, and a quick look suggests, as has each daily check, no signal for any major wave length changes that could lead to a spell of settled weather and some sunshine and heat!

Ec-gfs have some difference this morning with gfs again trialling very modest height rises west of the uk, its done this before in the past week but with no consistency and ec has not followed anyway.

Noaa has kept almost exactly the same pattern for the past week it shows from last evening. No signal from it of any marked change.

Obviously an odd day or two will give a chance for a brief attempt at ridging from the Azores area, again the NW-SE split in conditions. But until they consistently signal some definite ridging then our weather continues much as it has fro some time

The NOAA 8-14 is also very similar

now.http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Not sure why I've got two links to NOAA!

 

 

image.png

Edited by johnholmes
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Just to conclude last night's EC weeklies.. Tentative signs of an improvement by the final 3rd of next month, with more ridging to the SW.. Bit concerned how it's been pushed back from the 1st week out to the final 3rd though! But again absolutely know signs of any significant warmth being flagged up,and this keeps with the pattern it's showed all Summer... So whatever signals have been leading it seem to have been pretty close to the mark. Here's hoping for a better run on Thursday. 

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ECM clusters:

Day 6 - unsettled
image.thumb.png.5267bdebc283dca23caacac4bdf1ec76.png

Day 8 - NW/SE split developing:
image.thumb.png.39ed345e8dd90b969da633a4f24b20c4.png

Day 10 - Likely still best SE

image.thumb.png.1a56643108b7d74d7043c1482e9bc0eb.png

No real changes beyond either. Wettest further N and W (4-6 inches of rain in the next ten days over parts of Scotland, NW England and Wales), drier in the East and South in general. All very 'meh'.

Edited by mb018538
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters:

Day 6 - unsettled
image.thumb.png.5267bdebc283dca23caacac4bdf1ec76.png

Day 8 - NW/SE split developing:
image.thumb.png.39ed345e8dd90b969da633a4f24b20c4.png

Day 10 - Likely still best SE

image.thumb.png.1a56643108b7d74d7043c1482e9bc0eb.png

No real changes beyond either. Wettest further N and W (4-6 inches of rain in the next ten days over parts of Scotland, NW England and Wales), drier in the East and South in general. All very 'meh'.

Has anybody ever done any research into these to discover how accurate they are like JH did with the NOAA anomalies?

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There’s very little cheer from the models so far today apart from the Gem 0z which is a 💎...looking through the GEFS 6z there are a few hints that an early august plume is possible but on the whole, it’s a poor outlook and I take no pleasure in saying that..believe me!

2D549B55-B83A-41F6-91D2-36331207203A.thumb.png.926e87914bf0e9258e9ebf33845cdbc0.pngE690FAF8-E026-49EE-BFB7-0BF62EA065B0.thumb.png.06bfef8f16e58aa7dad90a4b423e63c7.png

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No doubt about it the GEFS 12z mean is an improvement on the 6z, especially for the south and there is some plume potential during early august which the 6z also hinted at but more so on the 12z..also more chance of high pressure building in too..it may not mean anything ultimately but I will keep looking for signs that summer 2020 might make a comeback!🙏😉

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ECM T240:

8FFE9E75-6744-4DA5-BFD2-A610BC9F8741.thumb.gif.33ec59b937edcb1c7e811ec449a5ae8e.gif55A20F44-19B1-465D-84CC-B9DB4AEA3BCD.thumb.gif.b5faf157b9dc4b48730aa4bede4c9a6d.gif

Some work to do still with the T850s, but some signs at least from a number of models that a warm up could happen by day 10, but then couldn’t it always?  But I think some interest post next weekend, and for thunderstorms too...

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2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

No doubt about it the GEFS 12z mean is an improvement on the 6z, especially for the south and there is some plume potential during early august which the 6z also hinted at but more so on the 12z..also more chance of high pressure building in too..it may not mean anything ultimately but I will keep looking for signs that summer 2020 might make a comeback!🙏😉

Yes a few model runs going for some more sustained ridge development as we end the month and enter August, but with the jetstream forecast to go southerly and height rises to our NW not looking like backing down, I'm not sure any ridge will be very sustained. Friday will see a very shortlived ridge before low pressure steamrolls back in to spoil the weekend.

Trying to stay positive, but it does look rather humdrum for high summer.

Seem to have settled into a westerly dominated pattern. Getting that mid-late Jan feel when we've had weeks of westerly atlantic muck and no sign of any change, and you feel winter is quickly escaping through your fingers, yes still Feb to go, but you get the uneasy sense it may all come too late..

Edited by damianslaw
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10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Has anybody ever done any research into these to discover how accurate they are like JH did with the NOAA anomalies?

When I get a decent bit of time I plan to go back through my old posts and tot up how many clusters were close to the mark. I'd guess they collectively indicate the right outcome about 70% of the time but that's totally unscientific. 

 

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Well back from hols, and to my surprise just the slightest suggestion from the clusters that we could squeeze in a plume before the month ends

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020072112_240.

The Atlantic low only has to stall slightly to allow a surge from the south - even a near miss on a plume might mean 30C at this time of year. Cluster 4 best placed for this, cluster 2/3 close. Much easier to see these sort of charts upgrade in summer than wintry charts in winter. It's give it a 30% chance right now. Maybe just maybe this July could escape the indignity of not one day reaching 30C which is so unusual these days. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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94FD1DBE-953C-45AB-8517-DEC8DAD391E6.thumb.png.a861ca3a1d604d4dbc5f4d778d0bb78a.png

ECM isn’t so good today....though neither are any of the runs really. Starting to see a trend developing for a low to be close by towards next weekend, and probably ploughing straight through the UK.

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Good morning, folks...I'm back, after a few days' off with acute model-fatigue; but, anyway, the overall pattern suggested by @Tamara and those upper windflow charts (FWIW, I'll call it 'predictable unpredictability':oldlaugh:!) still seems to be the form horse: a sort of N-S split but with bits and pieces of everything thrown in...?🤔

GFS 00Z:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, not much stands out, in the GEFS 00Z ens:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

NH profiles:

npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

So... now it's time to wait until the North Atlantic Hurricane Season decides what it's going to do...:unsure2:

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