Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - into July 2020

Recommended Posts

That's a different 12z ECM for sure. 

Much better than we've seen of late.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've just shaved ma heid -- a splendid Covid-19. Which means: image.thumb.png.d6a0bc2f881e10e16c0df0d51f514e2a.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where there’s life there’s hope!😉

31BE006F-D0D2-48C6-B620-60E355A9DE1C.thumb.gif.56e9339490fabdc0fc3ca0c9cb00507d.gifDF23A205-A458-4BDB-A4C2-EE22DA4D4500.thumb.png.ab6c729c474ed80d0c5f2b795fb91c1c.png68515FC9-6321-43EC-A837-33870FC1FDEB.thumb.png.11eb7e6da1527f69265c27f9dc739748.pngB6185EF7-40E5-4801-B75E-2644124B45B5.thumb.png.b50682090da1ae6cf4f6791e9f1b18c3.png

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hgt300.pnghgt300.png

Hmm - just as I was starting to consider a strong flat jet stream as probable, the 12z runs made considerable adjustments. Especially ECM with that leading trough undergoing disruption instead of powering straight on in across the UK.

Nice trend - but will it hold through the weekend?

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Again - the less said about the CFS the better as well.

A70F6D4D-CC46-4A45-8185-E45A025E83FD.thumb.jpeg.a552b3d44670b4e2154b3c88b7f8fae6.jpeg

It forecast a very strong and persistent ridge over the UK/scandi for mid to late July. That turned out well....

You are just reading the model wrongly.

It’s the Contrary Forecasting System: look at its runs then forecast the exact opposite and you’ll be quids in.

(P.S. ECM looks decent for the south/east quadrant)

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yet another set of runs today with much more colder than normal temp anomalies over the UK and Europe than warmer ones- latest run as an example-I keep monitoring these daily theres been a consistent colder signal in the main for most months for a while. Interesting atleast if not believable being the CFS 

Screenshot_20200717-234101_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200717-234106_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200717-234110_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200717-234114_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200717-234118_Samsung Internet.jpg

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is a bit kinder with a more average end however GFS keeps the cyclone train rolling right through. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all, another forecast chart today showing lots of cloud in the Eastern Alps associated with yet another upper low circulation in this location. The theme of the summer so far here with much cloud cover and depressed temperatures. Yes, a fresh covering snow at 3000m level in conjunction with the predicted 0c isotherm level. Latest GFS still showing a cool set up for most of this month. I am now beginning to think if the snow patches on our local mountains are going to survive the rest of the summer in the height range 2500-3000m. Still plenty at 3000m and above.

 C

GFSOPEU00_12_24.png

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better run from the ECM this morning when comparing to yesterdays 0z.  This was yesterdays chart for next Saturdays vs this mornings run:

image.png.2aff70d926abf4eef1bcfad20d70eec2.png     image.thumb.png.1ffeecf8fbf6a7d51dad2127d7c34172.png

The GFS has made a similar adjustment as well.  Then we have the familiar routine of the day 10 'Azores Tease'!

image.thumb.png.ff72272d1b071efd03f39d6d6b73a6be.png

Overall, not too bad with nothing awful lurking around the corner.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think I ran out of energy Karl !! And probably the last 2 to 3 weeks of dross is to blame... 💩

Anyway, as you say,a mixed bag this morning..at least we have,hopefully at least,a good 4 or 5 days with more emphasis on drier weather.

Things look pretty slack as we move through the week so a bit of thundery potential,hopefully ...

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Such a pity there is hardly anyone posting..the outlook isn’t to bad, it’s mixed for sure but there is some fine weather at times..I really don’t know what folk expect..heatwaves galore?..come on, it’s the u k and realistically a u k summer is a mixed bag..get over it!!!!😜

01182640-DAA5-44F3-AB97-1601BE002F79.thumb.gif.9568c254c33e8d81c6c22b696a3eb392.gif

 

I think mate its the nothingness of it all.. Its neither unsettled or settled,but just constantly cloudy with limited sun and it does grind the gears after a few weeks tbh.. Yes conditions next week see some at times decent weather. It trends a little more unsettled towards next weekend, but it's a rather slack flow.. Which could entail more gloom and nothingness! Just taken a look at the extended ECM mean out to day 14 and the pressure is disappointing to say the least... Its averaging around 1013mb, which is pretty much the starting point of stuck in the middle of nowhere. I'm still hoping for an improvement during the 1st week of August, going on the 46,but Monday will be an interesting run... Namely due to the fact it went for a major turnaround on Thursdays run, compared to the previous one which was poor.. So here's hoping it keeps with that trend change. 👍

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This mornings brief uptick in the outlook for the end of the week has taken a downturn once again, difficult to see where ukmo is going but with a northerly flow at 144 its not going for a heatwave! 

Gfs back to a very autumnal look with strong winds and rain, which is backed somewhat by the Mets update today...the pubs and resteraunts here in Wales will not be happy!

 

GFSOPEU12_189_1.png

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is a low pressure fest and not worth mentioning!

7114F5DE-9B3C-4134-850A-F56A1EC5C580.thumb.png.95979e6e801ddae47bc4f06918ca4b17.png

GEM shows a weak ridge at day 10 again, which could give a day or two of quieter weather.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is a low pressure fest and not worth mentioning!

7114F5DE-9B3C-4134-850A-F56A1EC5C580.thumb.png.95979e6e801ddae47bc4f06918ca4b17.png

GEM shows a weak ridge at day 10 again, which could give a day or two of quieter weather.

Yes, seems summer came in April / May this year which were glorious here. August can easily be a forward extension of autumn and it seems we are in the middle of a typical solar minimum summer.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 12z makes for very poor viewing as has been mentioned. Looking at the ensembles it is quite an outlier when looking at pressure especially. One can only hope it is overdoing the low pressure.

Quiet and settled for much of next week though.

image.thumb.png.eecde146599ba3ea08074e95553d9bc0.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z ECM @216

1814976937_ECM1-216(1).thumb.gif.522303f4d22cbc11f0000d1201722c99.gif

👀

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

32209FCF-45F7-420B-B0E2-6B80557AF45B.thumb.png.166750ff0dd1e2c0dbe91e0bcad30911.png

High pressure and warmer air nosing in again at day 10. Next weekend looks a bit of a write off, but there could be an improvement Into the following week...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@240

637403678_ECM1-240(2).thumb.gif.5b2a07db7b4bf1b2237ab05d225c09c9.gif

Pretty decent for the south I must say. That low near Iceland could cause a bit of trouble up north but other than that the 12z ECM is a pretty good run, the further south the better.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not a bad ending from ECM and at least it's warmer, especially the South.. I'm not buying this August is an extension of Autumn.. Yes it's been a long while since we had one, but it's sods law we will get another run of good ones.. Also reading between the lines, the met currently saying there could be a good deal of fine weather next month.. Confidence is low but I'm hoping we get another positive ECMWF long range on Monday.. Keep it positive guys, we are due a lucky break.. 

Enjoy your evenings 🍺🎥

ECM1-168 (1).gif

ECM1-192 (1).gif

ECM1-216 (1).gif

ECM1-240.gif

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, KTtom said:

This mornings brief uptick in the outlook for the end of the week has taken a downturn once again, difficult to see where ukmo is going but with a northerly flow at 144 its not going for a heatwave! 

Gfs back to a very autumnal look with strong winds and rain, which is backed somewhat by the Mets update today...the pubs and resteraunts here in Wales will not be happy!

 

GFSOPEU12_189_1.png

I'm heading to Pembrokeshire camping Friday to Monday 😭

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too far out, I know... but I wouldn't mind some warmth on my birthday 🤩

783749276_cfs-0-354(1).thumb.png.fb6a311b07316eb60cbde3ce0e8c1a4e.png   cfs-2-354.thumb.png.3edccf14c091263c466ee48d887176cf.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...