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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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52 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Like it’s been trying all summer!

Well it’s made it several times down here.

Would be good to see it take control over the U.K. and give our northern friends something summery. 

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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

Self evidently this is yet more nonsense excessive hyperbole. Ultimately, and it seems ridiculous to have to keep mentioning it on the basis of the weather to come in the days ahead for many -  t

It gets a bit of a "boys own" scrum on here. Computer models being assessed like they are competing engines being road tested for performance.  Temperatures being frantically compared from one compute

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Just now, Downpour said:

Well it’s made it several times down here.

Would be good to see it take control over the U.K. and give our northern friends something summery. 

It’s only really made it properly once - end of June. Apart from that, just weak ridging.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

It’s only really made it properly once - end of June. Apart from that, just weak ridging.

Indeed, but that’s enough down here to give us nice warm days. Realise it’s not sufficient up north hence why I say it would be good to see it take control. 

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1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

1st August 2020 looks hot image.thumb.png.88d6deb1f3a87c8771cbf6d26b332711.png

Problem being that the day 14 confidence interval is about 0.2.

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Looking at some of the 12z output for next week, with the aid of beer goggles and as long as you don’t look 👀 to far ahead, there could be some decent weather, at least across the south for most of next week. :drunk:😜:drinks:
0B4902F6-1BFE-4896-9BFD-1E124F0C3C8F.thumb.gif.23f365222e381b6706a470f08f3ad022.gif24C95C88-B59F-4551-A56D-051FA7DDFBCB.thumb.gif.e92fcffd8ca71cc15ddd345bcf73a3f9.gifD7BFD1C5-343C-4FC8-A212-9A493CB403E7.thumb.gif.b6771cabebc2761da12d6c5565439103.gif5BF9218C-382D-45F2-BEE3-D64A18CBB67D.thumb.png.9d594a0849d797f0b34a61d4037e5719.pngF307DFED-9DD9-471D-AA53-96F1ABCD1A84.thumb.png.781c40e27c8bb41603adcc6b54d5eb38.pngB98EAEDF-791D-4689-861A-7157B098E063.thumb.png.5a345f2e56d80f4383697750c3da5949.png

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42 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Indeed, but that’s enough down here to give us nice warm days. Realise it’s not sufficient up north hence why I say it would be good to see it take control. 

Can’t say I agree there. I live in one of the warmest and driest parts of the UK and have had 50 hours sunlight at halfway though July. If we’d had proper high pressure ridging in the sunshine totals would be miles higher.

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Models showing some fairly pleasant weather in the reliable in the main, although a cold front will spoil the party for the north later tomorrow and into Saturday, this moving into southern parts through Saturday to give a rather dank dull day unfortunately. Behind the front a cooler airmass, but much brighter than we have seen for quite some time, with the azores high exerting some influence to kill off the chance of frontal or showery activity. Nothing especially warm but some decent sunny dry weather on the cards early next week.

As we move into the semi-reliable 144hrs onwards, the models are suggesting low pressure coming back on the scene and the atlantic trough settling itself over the UK, not a pleasant sight to see in late July all timed for the first full summer weekend of the school holidays. How often do things tend to go downhill when the schools break up, far to often up here.. From a personal perspective it's really not what I want to see, have some outdoor plans for the Saturday and if the GFS and ECM verify could be looking at a washout day and chilly with it. Time still for trends to change, but this has been a strong theme over last 24 hrs or so. July certainly not going to down as a good summer month, can it redeem itself to average at best..

For me it's the conditions felt at the end of July and early August that for some reason leave the longest lasting indelible mark on how you rate the summer as a whole - prime holiday time, high summer period, same as late Jan and early Feb, depths of winter and when we on average should expect our coldest conditions, and we are in full on hibernation mode still. Opposite times of the year in all respects. Summer 95 and Winter 95/96 were my perfect seasons in this respect as they both delivered cold and hot periods just at the right time when I want it. 3 week snowy cold spell 21 Jan - 10 Feb and 3 week hot spell, roughly 20 July to 8 Aug. Summer 2003 did the same to an extent.

Good post and yes, 1995 was an almost perfect year in that way.

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45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Can’t say I agree there. I live in one of the warmest and driest parts of the UK and have had 50 hours sunlight at halfway though July. If we’d had proper high pressure ridging in the sunshine totals would be miles higher.

Sun came out today at 1.30pm, first time since Sunday.

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Some early updates from the EC46.. next week looks pretty usable for many areas.. No heatwave for sure but High Pressure looks in control for many. Towards next weekend we again have the High receding back to the SW.. Low Pressure looks to be pulling down from the NW.. But at this stage I wouldn't be overly concerned, the precipitation amounts remain low away from the far NW. Into the following week we still have some ebb and flow from the Azores High, and it looks like the far SW is of most benefit, so perhaps not a bad location for a little break or Holiday... Subject to social distancing of course.. 🤣 Pressure close to 1019 in the far SW and more typically 1014 further North.. Very much a NW/SW split.. There you go that's me avoiding that horrid NW/SE split phrase. Temps North to South... Average at best further North, more pleasent further to that High influence.. Overall rainfall amounts are not to high through til the end of the month. But these do trend higher in that NW location. 

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Evening all 🙂

The Azores HP continues to "pulse" ridges towards southern Britain from the SW but they aren't persisting and towards the end of next week general agreement on a retreat of HP and LP (shallow to be honest) rolling in from the Atlantic to take us to the end of the month and what would be a fairly disappointing July in truth.

Looking at the CFS 12Z through into early August (yes, I know), I'm not filled with optimism. The problem seems to be residual heights over Greenland which are forcing the jet further south and the accompanying LP systems are moving much closer to the British Isles while the Azores HP, despite continual efforts to ridge in from the SW, is beaten back by the jet and retreating back to re-gather for another go. The other aspect of heights to the NW is the Scandinavian trough which is persisting to the NE and keeping any hot air to the south and the British Isles often in cooler N'ly air.

I do wonder if we need a bit of hurricane energy to shake things up which could mean a decent autumn but that's just supposition. 

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Cheers Matt - good update.

Well the 12z's continue the theme.  The Azores edges in.... gets flattened and shifted east..... rinse and repeat.  Not sure what's going to shift this current rut, strange spell of weather really.  Still, tomorrow is looking very warm in these parts so I'm not moaning 😬

 

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A little bit of good news moving forward.. The 46 throws another ridge in from around the 1st week in August and it looks a little more extensive for a few days.. So perhaps the next upcoming unsettled spell quickly being followed by another better spell.. 

Early days and tread with caution but looks like a decent spell coming up from mid way through the 1st week of August out towards mid month.. The Azores amazingly seems to be trying to make more of a fist of it. Perhaps it's getting fed up of being bullied around. 😉 Long way off but its a possibility and tbh we at least need to cling on to some kind of better conditions devoloping next month.. 👍

Edited by MATT☀️
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The 12z certainly continues the NW/SE split until late next week when it becomes widely much more unsettled. Very little in the way of decent weather midlands northwards until early August at this stage. 

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2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

@matt I hope your right about the 1st week of August . 

Its flagging up around the 3rd..and the period from then through till the 11th is certainly better than the Monday run Mark.. Its been pretty consistent this summer with its general trend.. And it's never showed any persistent heat all summer so its been bang on with that.. It wouldnt suprise me to see some decent conditions through next month though.. So in the shorter term we have some Decent weather next week... We then have a breakdown come late next week.. Will be interesting to see what the short range models make of that, because the EC46 is currently going for quite low rainfall amounts for much of Central/Southern parts.. The shading is blue which indicates 10mm or less. Its possible it could be localised downpours meaning some areas stay drier.. We should know more come Monday.. 👍

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A few frames from today's GFS 00Z... so,  still nothing that supports the 'summer is over' assumption:😱

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, however, the wait for the next '2018' must go on!:oldlaugh:

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23 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A few frames from today's GFS 00Z... so,  still nothing that supports the 'summer is over' assumption:😱

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, however, the wait for the next '2018' must go on!:oldlaugh:

While summer is clearly not over and wont be over until the 1st of September some of those charts you've posted making that statement are dreadful. 

Seems like a reasonable few days coming up, today and tomorrow generally warm in the south to add to yesterday bonus day. Then through to the middle of next a fairly quiet spell of weather, cloud amounts will need to be resolved but looking dry and temps slowly mixing out the cold poo from so hopefully back to average by Wed/Thurs next week. 

Hopefully beyond D8 out there's enough time time for the forecast to change but GEM, ECM & GFS all look like ploughing an unseasonably strong southerly tracking Jet into western Europe. 

 

 

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ECM not looking great at day 8:

image.thumb.png.a72d2b122661032bb37fcfaccc78e91c.png

But much less threatening at day 10:

image.thumb.png.ee6524fbc60cb1088feecdd94830c875.png

Doesn't look amazing - I know - but I've seen heaps worse in summer.
 

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20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM not looking great at day 8:

image.thumb.png.a72d2b122661032bb37fcfaccc78e91c.png

But much less threatening at day 10:

image.thumb.png.ee6524fbc60cb1088feecdd94830c875.png

Doesn't look amazing - I know - but I've seen heaps worse in summer.
 

GFS models agree - very heavy rain over England and Wales for the period 24th July to 27th July 2020 with large precipitation amounts and suppressed temperatures. 

Long range forecasts on the brilliant Accuweather (what models do they use) are indicating a very warm and dry period August 10th to August 31st 2020 across the UK.

 

Manchester_August_2020.PNG

August_2020_Wrexham.PNG

Edited by NApplewhite
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2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

GFS models agree - very heavy rain over England and Wales for the period 24th July to 27th July 2020 with large precipitation amounts and suppressed temperatures. 

Long range forecasts on the brilliant Accuweather (what models do they use) are indicating a very warm and dry period August 10th to August 31st 2020 across the UK.

 

GFS OP is a wet, cool and more unsettled outlier today:

image.thumb.png.3da9c2c7c189ebef8dc235c973ca269d.pngimage.thumb.png.9f935368dba6697f7a24cceb68a2c9da.png

I'd back the ECM any day and twice on a Sunday. Global Fail System has been dreadful all summer as usual.

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12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS OP is a wet, cool and more unsettled outlier today:

image.thumb.png.3da9c2c7c189ebef8dc235c973ca269d.pngimage.thumb.png.9f935368dba6697f7a24cceb68a2c9da.png

I'd back the ECM any day and twice on a Sunday. Global Fail System has been dreadful all summer as usual.

CFS Model agrees with GFS of very unsettled conditions at day 8 to day 12. Average conditions the following week. 

image.thumb.png.c6bdde22ffc41f5504979e515544a85a.pngimage.thumb.png.8eea7288d68cadbb4158668e89b99055.pngimage.thumb.png.97eb0cc77f0535f4eae5ca91efcb1ff2.pngimage.thumb.png.84127d4c8aea6307e5c03ee2629df01c.pngimage.thumb.png.bde4dc47782dfc44ccff09f98fef2700.pngimage.thumb.png.33e596f96ae902e8fe9d1ad40508123d.pngimage.thumb.png.70cf87d6cafd686c0fef381bfe03ac2e.png

Edited by NApplewhite
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Not much change on the overnight runs, showing a real mixed bag for the next 10 days, some good, some bad (the south/south east fairing better - sorry 😬).  It currently looks like next weekend is going to be pretty awful, wet with depressed temperatures nationwide.  In fact, quite remarkable consistency between the ECM and GFS for 9 days from now 😲

image.thumb.png.a9077ac97c7b33c1d8344371153a32ca.pngimage.thumb.png.e1c1c6bc7591157e06a87b17b6e72814.png   

Both go on to promise something better from day 10 but too far out to worry about.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

CFS Model agrees with GFS of very unsettled conditions at day 8 to day 12. Average conditions the following week. 

image.thumb.png.c6bdde22ffc41f5504979e515544a85a.pngimage.thumb.png.8eea7288d68cadbb4158668e89b99055.pngimage.thumb.png.97eb0cc77f0535f4eae5ca91efcb1ff2.pngimage.thumb.png.84127d4c8aea6307e5c03ee2629df01c.pngimage.thumb.png.bde4dc47782dfc44ccff09f98fef2700.pngimage.thumb.png.33e596f96ae902e8fe9d1ad40508123d.pngimage.thumb.png.70cf87d6cafd686c0fef381bfe03ac2e.png

Again - the less said about the CFS the better as well.

A70F6D4D-CC46-4A45-8185-E45A025E83FD.thumb.jpeg.a552b3d44670b4e2154b3c88b7f8fae6.jpeg

It forecast a very strong and persistent ridge over the UK/scandi for mid to late July. That turned out well....

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