Model output discussion - into July 2020

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes the clock is ticking down, but we had a great march, april, may, june. Have to pay,

Great June?! Have to disagree there!

Anyway - down she goes...

 

 

[Djdazzle]

I think we should have heard alarm bells when the Meto were going for a good second half of July. Usually you can bank on the opposite being true.

it may also be one of those occasions when the background signals don’t deliver.

Still hopeful of a late July hot spell though.

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes the clock is ticking down, but we had a great march, april, may, june. Have to pay,

A great second half to March, and a great April and May, but not June in the main.

[mb018538]

52 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I think we should have heard alarm bells when the Meto were going for a good second half of July. Usually you can bank on the opposite being true.

it may also be one of those occasions when the background signals don’t deliver.

Still hopeful of a late July hot spell though.

It’s just changed from this morning....the evening update is now unsettled. Couldn’t make it up. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just changed from this morning....the evening update is now unsettled. Couldn’t make it up. 

I don’t know why they don’t just get a piece of seaweed and dangle it out of the window. Much cheaper, probably as accurate and doesn’t need my taxes to fund it!

2 weeks of summer to go, unless August decides to rejoin the season which it left at the end of 2003!

The models aren’t terrible - just full of bland nothingness. Maybe we will wake up to a good set of 00z runs.

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I don’t know why they don’t just get a piece of seaweed and dangle it out of the window. Much cheaper, probably as accurate and doesn’t need my taxes to fund it!

2 weeks of summer to go, unless August decides to rejoin the season which it left at the end of 2003!

The models aren’t terrible - just full of bland nothingness. Maybe we will wake up to a good set of 00z runs.

I don’t normally bite on this sort of stuff but this update says everything you want to see/hear . It actually says it’s going to be Settled and fine and wet and windy . Proper finger in the air stuff . Any way I might be back later to post the hopefully mighty Navgem . 

[mb018538]

I do worry about how repeatedly poor those extended forecasts can be for one of the best organisations in the world. There hasn’t been anything to really suggest any longer lasting settled weather in any output or teleconnections, yet they kept putting in the extended for days on end. Some of the members here would do a much better job.

[Guest]

The rapid change in the space of 48hrs is the thing that’s getting me, 48hrs ago we were looking at 27-29c on Saturday and still a decent Sunday and Monday. It’s looks like it’ll struggle to reach 20c here on Saturday now and just 21-22c in other areas as the cold pool rapidly sinks south. 

[Downpour]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I do worry about how repeatedly poor those extended forecasts can be for one of the best organisations in the world. There hasn’t been anything to really suggest any longer lasting settled weather in any output or teleconnections, yet they kept putting in the extended for days on end. Some of the members here would do a much better job.

Not sure about that! 
 

Many Netweather members call “dire and unsettled” whenever it’s anything but a massive UK high. 
 

Take today for example, actually a warm and decent day down here. Not clear blue skies, but perfectly useable weather. 

[Guest]

What’s Arpege smoking? Showing a max of 28c here on Thursday? Similar Friday and Saturday.....

[Sweatyman]

50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just changed from this morning....the evening update is now unsettled. Couldn’t make it up. 

they are effing useless

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Downpour said:

Not sure about that! 
 

Many Netweather members call “dire and unsettled” whenever it’s anything but a massive UK high. 
 

Take today for example, actually a warm and decent day down here. Not clear blue skies, but perfectly useable weather. 

Are you really from East London or from another planet? What was decent about today? I'm just over the river and today was rubbish not a bit of sun it was humid and very dull the worst summer weather. Surely you can understand people want better than this in high summer period? I haven't seen any commentary on GFS 18z and well having a look I can see why.

[NApplewhite]

Weather is currently very unsettled across most of Europe - very unusual for July when we normally expect clear skies over Spain, Germany, France and the low countries! Could this be a later than normal European Monsoon? Azores high is very close to Western Europe - its teasing us as it never properly makes it today.  NW/SE Split with the south coast of England and channel islands getting the benefit of the ridging Azores high (though the high looks to slowly retrogress and elongate). Renewed push on Monday but it brings very cool Northerly/NW winds. The Iceland low moves into Scandinavia with western parts seeing more sunshine closer to the  (weak) Azores ridge. Month end is looking very unsettled as well with plenty of heavy rain to close out a miserable July in the UK.  The sunshine shortage is the biggest problem this month with major shortfalls continuing. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by NApplewhite

[Methuselah]

Well, there's nowt to be gained from posting another wodge of GFS 00Z charts, as 'mixed' sums it up nicely IMO...?

Which is of course all quite normal for a British summer...

Edited July 15, 2020 by General Cluster

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, there's nowt to be gained from posting another wodge of GFS 00Z charts, as 'mixed' sums it up nicely IMO...?

Whis is of course all quite normal for a British summer...

General Custer..I mean Cluster sums things up well when he says mixed!..however, mixed means good as well as bad so it’s not a write off by any means..the Gfs 0z op / Gefs 0z mean indicates a fair deal of ridging / high pressure influence and there are some Gefs members flirting with late July heat or at least very warm conditions...so, it’s a mixed bag but even mixed bags have some goodies in them!

[mb018538]

Look at how this just drops into negative as soon as June started, and has been stuck in the depths ever since. Rubbish. Spikes in April and May corresponding to the nice weather we had here.

[Djdazzle]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I do worry about how repeatedly poor those extended forecasts can be for one of the best organisations in the world. There hasn’t been anything to really suggest any longer lasting settled weather in any output or teleconnections, yet they kept putting in the extended for days on end. Some of the members here would do a much better job.

I could understand the need to tweak an extended outlook based on the most up to date signals. But it’s the complete flips which inspire no confidence. To be fair, most output this summer has been very unreliable beyond 4-5 days.

[mountain shadow]

54 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, there's nowt to be gained from posting another wodge of GFS 00Z charts, as 'mixed' sums it up nicely IMO...?

Which is of course all quite normal for a British summer...

The Azores high has pretty much stopped even bothering to ridge in now. 

Another 10 days of cloud and drizzle in the North West beckons.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Azores high has pretty much stopped even bothering to ridge in now. 

Oh really?

 

[Azazel]

Mixed is OK - BUT - is there any sign of any convection or anything at least? It's been so boring here.

[carinthian]

Morning all. This chart not the most inspiring one as we enter the height of summer period. Really has been a less than average summer for many in Central Europe and Eastern Alps especially. Very noticeable the amount of cloud cover and cool day time temps. Of course from day to day can change quickly over here from hot to cold and has at times been the case. So still a fair bit of summer period to get into a above average temp phase I hear from my friends in Sweden that they have had a poor run since early June and many back in blighty a distinct  worsening of the summer weather in the NW. Looks like summer on hold for many apart from the far south. Just as an observation, I note the mountain peaks still have many snow patches left in this region, possibly more so than I have seen in the last 15 years. Certainly a very different summer compared to the recent run of hot ones in these parts.

C

[wellington boot]

I can only advise more of you move south (although cant say we really want you here...).

Most of the last week to ten days has been pretty pleasant - mostly pleasantly warm, plenty of sunshine. In fact, Friday up to today, 5 days out of 6 have been sunny, except for yesterday, which was still perfectly warm.

With that in mind, the models look fine to me. Plenty more sunny weather on the way over the next week, and teleconnections mixed and complicated enough that many possibilities exist beyond that. Given June was also fine, it feels to me like we're getting away with one down here given questionable underlying conditions for summer weather...

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

I can only advise more of you move south (although cant say we really want you here...).

Most of the last week to ten days has been pretty pleasant - mostly pleasantly warm, plenty of sunshine. In fact, Friday up to today, 5 days out of 6 have been sunny, except for yesterday, which was still perfectly warm.

With that in mind, the models look fine to me. Plenty more sunny weather on the way over the next week, and teleconnections mixed and complicated enough that many possibilities exist beyond that. Given June was also fine, it feels to me like we're getting away with one down here given questionable underlying conditions for summer weather...

Pretty much the only place below average rainfall wise - the west was exceptionally wet in June.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty much the only place below average rainfall wise - the west was exceptionally wet in June.

Yup, not a great month locally,July is even worse though.

We can't seem to shake off the yellows up at northern latitudes meaning the Jetstream is never far from our latitude.

Those SE of the Pennines have fared better but for MBY the last two weeks have been horrendously poor.

Looking at the 00z runs things might improve over the weekend but there is a  signal for things to start going downhill again with the lows towards Iceland heading SE ...

It's not great, I always try to look at things from a positive angle but I must admit,I'm beginning to struggle now.

Hopefully those in the SE might do OK ,but for those of us north of the Midlands,esp west of the Pennines, its slowly turning into a rubbish summer.

Edited July 15, 2020 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I could understand the need to tweak an extended outlook based on the most up to date signals. But it’s the complete flips which inspire no confidence. To be fair, most output this summer has been very unreliable beyond 4-5 days.

Tbh the EC46 updates I've been posting have pretty much nailed this pattern all Summer.. Azores ridge ebbing and flowing with low Heights to the NW and a flow mainly Wstly.. Those NOAA charts have also been pretty successful I must admit, and that's coming from someone who doubted them not so long back. I would say so far this summer a blend of EC46 and NOAA charts would have brought a pretty reliable forecast, especially for trends, and perhaps just relying on the ops for the finer details of the weather at ground level. Because on there own they have certainly been very dodgy and that goes for the means also. I also think Tamara as been pretty close with her summarys also, never once highlighted a persistently settled or very warm outcome. 

While I'm at it the GEM looks OK overall.. But even here you can still see that familiar pattern of ridging for a few days before a retreat takes places every so often..