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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    The UKMO showing the N/S split continuing . 144 Hrs not to bad really .

    989175AC-B521-4D78-9E2D-46A13D9B85DB.gif

    92EE762C-4A29-494C-9EF1-3E4C4FEBEFF1.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes UKMO looking good with the Azores high finally making a decent fist of it...

    ☀️🌤️😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    GFS 12z pretty dire. Winds predominantly from the West, North West or North with associated cold uppers and suppressed surface temperatures. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEM T168 looks very promising:

    BE820F0B-C358-4288-AC30-FDA712350E2B.thumb.png.92256cdea1f4be5050e42ff3d81a2eb7.png

    Trouble is such charts have tended not to come into fruition, maybe now there is some momentum behind a high pressure incursion from the Azores that might head east????

    Edit: GEM T240 shows a proper summer pattern, LIKE

    C7B20712-CFA1-4709-A46E-3A793ED56093.thumb.png.fedbfe9f4baba817fb39a812234ecfda.png

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    39 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    GFS 12z pretty dire. Winds predominantly from the West, North West or North with associated cold uppers and suppressed surface temperatures. 

    Yep much of Europe is exceptionally cool for its entirety really. Can anyone possibly see a repeat of late July 2019?

    A33A4D68-B397-442A-85E7-E61CD5275ABB.thumb.png.7d9575ded891124454352d934fbb5078.png2654732F-229E-4240-94AF-71DFDB8B5AB8.thumb.png.1607ec062f9556ef89e649f27b751f51.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just been having a look 👀 a bit further ahead at the 12z runs so far, all similar in terms of timing and evolution so I’m thinking the mid range is shaping up nicely, in my opinion things are not looking bad for the rest of July, at least across the southern half / third of the u k. 👍 

    A338F9E1-BC91-4A03-AFB3-0455E0AABA9D.thumb.png.8d67e2902a23107652a8bf4d7fb24e77.pngC426EDE7-B75E-4529-93A2-81172C256249.thumb.png.afe57fd6bcdd99e6f3e35eb310ee11de.pngD67758BC-F234-408F-9F18-566C44F79B08.thumb.png.0718c16739face8f4eef63ba6920006e.png7DE2E079-15E8-4C8C-962E-075D3F82E6CC.thumb.png.13c118a6f26e654bba7c7a44fc8b4868.png88DB1235-D858-45B4-AE03-DB51840D76BF.thumb.gif.8ac3c2ca4499a0e211a80651a33ca4d2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Yep much of Europe is exceptionally cool for its entirety really. Can anyone possibly see a repeat of late July 2019?

    A33A4D68-B397-442A-85E7-E61CD5275ABB.thumb.png.7d9575ded891124454352d934fbb5078.png2654732F-229E-4240-94AF-71DFDB8B5AB8.thumb.png.1607ec062f9556ef89e649f27b751f51.png

    It was never going to be likely. But no reason to suggest that we won’t get some hot weather between now and the end of the month, even if it’s a 2 day plume. You’d never bet against 90F being exceeded.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    GEM ends on a very fine note!

    anim_azi1.thumb.gif.ecdb249db4cd8f5cf8663978199c64dc.gif   anim_iab8.thumb.gif.cb3527478460e913032a41c54ec08db7.gif

    I've still got my hopes up for a late July/early August consolation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Its all a bit nothingy this evening isn't it, we're back to prospects of anything decent lasting more than a day or two being pushed right back to at least 7-8days out with weak extensions of the Azores being flagged up again.....lol not buying that one again....

    When was the last time 30C wasn't reached in July? 2011? I can remember there being a hot spell in July 2012 as I was in London

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    GFS 12z pretty dire. Winds predominantly from the West, North West or North with associated cold uppers and suppressed surface temperatures. 

    Again, it’s location based. It’s fine if unremarkable down here - decentish summer weather. In the NW, it’s crappy. 
     

    UKM looks better outside the far NW. 

    Edited by Downpour
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Its all a bit nothingy this evening isn't it, we're back to prospects of anything decent lasting more than a day or two being pushed right back to at least 7-8days out with weak extensions of the Azores being flagged up again.....lol not buying that one again....

    When was the last time 30C wasn't reached in July? 2011? I can remember there being a hot spell in July 2012 as I was in London

    I wouldn’t worry yet Chris. The same was being said this time last month, and 90F was broken. Nothing to rule out the same thing happening this month - it seems likely even in poorer months.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Interesting to note AO has been negative pretty much all the way through summer so far, forecasts remain firmly negative even more later this week.. perhaps this is contributing to v suppressed temps in N U.K. with colder air than normal displaced from Arctic. I have noticed 850hPa temps are unusually cold for July.

    13DE2B1F-9727-4FE0-B6CF-A161C131C376.thumb.png.d933c62d7ea589940836897ab7b974ae.pngEBE0BBFC-07E0-4748-918C-F43DAEED8840.thumb.png.3fffc8a608f33c8ce12543f49fc2f3bd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @168

    2122000241_ECM1-168(2).thumb.gif.cac0805a24f02cfd2f542920a8314832.gif

    I reckon the next few frames will be pretty interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    08B74AC6-D2F0-41C9-AF0E-6F6A4A4074CA.thumb.png.3a383585bd80b785319f0542c5b46363.png

    Looks ok at 192, probably another transient ridge that will move away though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Quite decent for the south...

    @192

    ECM1-192 (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    B8162CA2-E04F-4214-8E2A-AFA6C3CE2F5C.thumb.png.dd79ff8d9e339d1ac1e15d7a1b86a51c.png

    Messy by day 10, and with that northern blocking pushing the jet south, it’s not ideal. 

    GEM looks the best, so we can hope it’s closer to the mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    We certainly seem to be stuck in a weather rut at the moment, the runs have continued to churn out the same pattern for the last few days now.  Certainly nothing awful about them but not a nationwide warm spell either (and I certainly shouldn't be complaining, being a south easterner).  The one difference with the ECM tonight is that days 9 and 10 have gone downhill a little!!!! 😬  Good job they never come to fruition then.

    image.thumb.png.99c3847b5655a5bff39e23f2190706b6.png   image.thumb.png.4d4955ec61f0c5c2a4ae1e72d9162933.png

     

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    This is a valid point - and why the 500mb plots that @johnholmes regularly posts are important. Without ridging in the upper air pattern, surface high pressure isn’t as strong or effective. We’ve had a lot of that this summer, where you don’t get as great weather as you’d hope under high pressure. No change expected soon either.

    F3B8BE0D-F63F-45BD-918F-80590E657483.thumb.gif.8f8369a4cba64e6077def20de5090cbe.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Model output showing a classic La Nina imprint for summer, suppressed azores high and a flow from between north and west, whether this is an entrenched pattern remains to be seen but we've been locked in this for a good 3 weeks or so now. Other signals were suggesting we might not quite yet see it imprinting to such degree and ridging may take a foothold. However, models don't seem to be showing this, we continue to see the ridge moving in outside the reliable timeframe, keeps getting pushed back.

    Outcome - cool, cloudy though fairly dry which is some consolation away from western and north west parts. Warmest sunniest conditions always reserved for the SE quarter of the UK, temps here average at best, no real warmth.

    We are losing precious weeks in high summer to very lacklustre conditions.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Model output showing a classic La Nina imprint for summer,

    We're not in one though?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM 12z is very dry. 1-2mm for most areas over the 10 days 

    103EB204-14BA-465F-97D9-13081243295E.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    We're not in one though?

    Not yet however Nina zones 1, 2 and 3 are all below the threshold and persistent trades are being observed.

    The posters above are no doubt inferring that low GLAAM is indicative and suggesting of enhanced mid-lattitude westerlies.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    The latest update to observed AAM showed no overall gain as of 12th. Model forecasts now assume a gain has got underway since in response to the +FTs, which has ties to how quickly the cool air moves away after the weekend. It's difficult to assess to what extent high pressure will manage to hold in warm positions for us next week.

    If we just had another moderately negative AAM cycle in the works, it'd be relatively straightforward - the high tending to be focused to our west, like it is on Sunday.

    As it is, we don't... but while there's a lot of +FTs being input, most of them have so far been in the Southern Hemisphere, though 12th does show an uptick on our side so perhaps there's a more meaningful transition incoming. Applying typical lag on that gives us the 2nd half of next week for results. Models exploring that but tending to be very tentative with ridges over or east of the UK. Wouldn't it be amusing if it turned out that, having overdone such patterns for this week, they proved to be making too little of them for later next week! Too much to ask...?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

     

    We are losing precious weeks in high summer to very lacklustre conditions.

     

    Yes the clock is ticking down, but we had a great march, april, may, june. Have to pay,

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Mein Gott in Himmel, we're all going to die: GFS T+240:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I give up!:help:

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