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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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39 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Yes that looks pretty good, and it's what Brian Glaze was calling for in his extended outlook for Summer, namely a good month in August. I think Weather online are also making a similar call too, would be interesting to know what Tams makes of it... Or perhaps she may find it a little to early just yet.. ?

CFS is very good for August with higher than normal pressure over the UK.  September looks pretty good too 

Mixed outlook for this week though! 

During Friday outbreaks of rain push across much of the north and west. They will be heavy at times and accompanied by strong winds. There could be some rain in central counties too but much of the south and east remains dry.

Through Saturday outbreaks of rain clear southeastwards. Brighter and showery conditions follow them from the west. Temperatures remain similar to recent days. Another band of persistent rain is likely to push across northern areas overnight with showery conditions returning for Sunday. The south probably remains drier, although there could be a few showers around. 

Next week is looking mixed. The south should have quite a lot of dry and warm weather. In the north it stays more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain and at times they could push southwards.

Low pressure will continue to move east and circulate over Scandinavia on Monday 6th July 2020 allowing for ridging high pressure and drier conditions to come about for the start of the week. With that low pressure still relatively close by the northwest of the country will hang on to wetter conditions; Scotland will see outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy and persistent in that northwesterly wind in the morning, before turning more showery during the afternoon. Sunny spells with showers also expected across Northern Ireland, northwest England and northwest Wales. Drier elsewhere. Highs at 14 to 16C in the north and 18 to 21C in the south.

 

Tuesday 7/7/20
A largely dry day is currently forecast for Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure nudges up from the Azores. Turning cloudy across western places though through the afternoon with rain moving in to Northern Ireland and western Ireland and then western Scotland later on. Temperatures 14 to 17C in the north. Highs at around 17 to 20C in the south.

image.thumb.png.65ab9e7901d0b176a050890faf9021ae.png

Wednesday 8/7/20
A wet day is expected for the northern half of the country; including Scotland, northern England, Wales as well as Northern Ireland and northern parts of Ireland. Further south should stay mainly dry with sunny spells. Temperatures around 16 to 19C. Cooler in the far north of Scotland with highs reaching to only 13 to 14C and warm in the southeast of England at 23C.

image.thumb.png.0868112efc86e4a89ac4437b73aa1b90.png

Thursday 9/7/20
Low pressure will clear to the east on Thursday with a brief ridge of high pressure bringing drier and brighter conditions for a short time before it clouds up again in the west in advance of the next Atlantic Low pressure. Temperatures around 16 to 20C and warmer in the southeast of England at 22C.

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Edited by NApplewhite
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Posted (edited)

Just before the 12z gets into full swing, just want to say I concur with the positive comments regarding further into July seeing a return of very summery conditions (at times)!. If we take a look ? at the Ecm 0z ensemble mean it clearly shows an improving picture as next week progresses, especially across southern u k and I honestly believe we are going to see similar weather towards / during / beyond mid July as we had last week! I don’t think we are looking at an Atlantic driven damp cool squib July by any means!?

63469682-2A43-4E58-B10A-C2951E3E93A6.thumb.gif.402814433e03c095d9507d4ca5644edc.gif51116CC7-984D-4719-A4B9-BA4C88586C90.thumb.gif.422cee4fb0805c2a5a4f86c799496158.gifE506072C-3109-40EE-B540-C9EE214227CD.thumb.gif.bf9058e6fbaffe7bed94910b58f9885e.gif

Edited by JON SNOW
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10 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

CFS is very good for August with higher than normal pressure over the UK.  September looks pretty good too 

Mixed outlook for this week though! 

During Friday outbreaks of rain push across much of the north and west. They will be heavy at times and accompanied by strong winds. There could be some rain in central counties too but much of the south and east remains dry.

Through Saturday outbreaks of rain clear southeastwards. Brighter and showery conditions follow them from the west. Temperatures remain similar to recent days. Another band of persistent rain is likely to push across northern areas overnight with showery conditions returning for Sunday. The south probably remains drier, although there could be a few showers around. 

Next week is looking mixed. The south should have quite a lot of dry and warm weather. In the north it stays more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain and at times they could push southwards.

Low pressure will continue to move east and circulate over Scandinavia on Monday 6th July 2020 allowing for ridging high pressure and drier conditions to come about for the start of the week. With that low pressure still relatively close by the northwest of the country will hang on to wetter conditions; Scotland will see outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy and persistent in that northwesterly wind in the morning, before turning more showery during the afternoon. Sunny spells with showers also expected across Northern Ireland, northwest England and northwest Wales. Drier elsewhere. Highs at 14 to 16C in the north and 18 to 21C in the south.

 

Tuesday 7/7/20
A largely dry day is currently forecast for Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure nudges up from the Azores. Turning cloudy across western places though through the afternoon with rain moving in to Northern Ireland and western Ireland and then western Scotland later on. Temperatures 14 to 17C in the north. Highs at around 17 to 20C in the south.

 

Wednesday 8/7/20
A wet day is expected for the northern half of the country; including Scotland, northern England, Wales as well as Northern Ireland and northern parts of Ireland. Further south should stay mainly dry with sunny spells. Temperatures around 16 to 19C. Cooler in the far north of Scotland with highs reaching to only 13 to 14C and warm in the southeast of England at 23C.

 

Thursday 9/7/20
Low pressure will clear to the east on Thursday with a brief ridge of high pressure bringing drier and brighter conditions for a short time before it clouds up again in the west in advance of the next Atlantic Low pressure. Temperatures around 16 to 20C and warmer in the southeast of England at 22C.

 

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Thanks for that, but you do realise you've just posted the Weather online forecast for the week ahead issued this morning by Alexi Veneros... ?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Just before the 12z gets into full swing, just want to say I concur with the positive comments regarding further into July seeing a return of more summery conditions ( at times)!. If we take a look ? at the Ecm 0z ensemble mean it clearly shows an improving picture as next week progresses and I honestly believe we are going to see similar weather towards / during / beyond mid July as we had last week! I don’t think we are looking at an Atlantic driven damp cool squib July by any means!?

63469682-2A43-4E58-B10A-C2951E3E93A6.thumb.gif.402814433e03c095d9507d4ca5644edc.gif51116CC7-984D-4719-A4B9-BA4C88586C90.thumb.gif.422cee4fb0805c2a5a4f86c799496158.gifE506072C-3109-40EE-B540-C9EE214227CD.thumb.gif.bf9058e6fbaffe7bed94910b58f9885e.gif

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Edited by NApplewhite
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11 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Thanks for that, but you do realise you've just posted the Weather online forecast for the week ahead issued this morning by Alexi Veneros... ?

image.thumb.png.d4919bee7b68b0e08761d722d8f9b94b.pngEnough said for Northern England and Wales! 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.d4919bee7b68b0e08761d722d8f9b94b.pngEnough said for Northern England and Wales! 

Yes it seems to be an improving picture for Central/Southern areas next week, but the unsettled conditions remain to the North and West, could be the following week before these areas see an improving picture also. 

Icon showing that ridge pushing in next week at 120hrs.

icon-0-120.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-0-171.png

Edited by MATT☀️
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9 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.d4919bee7b68b0e08761d722d8f9b94b.pngEnough said for Northern England and Wales! 

I think you need to be careful what you are posting with regard to copyright?

The meteogram from ECMWF I am sure is only for a paying customer and not fr use on another site. Perhaps best if you pm Paul the site owner and ask his advice.

 

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10 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Indeed Mike -

With those uppers too the majority of places should exceed 20c, with the mid-twenties possible somewhere in the SE/London area

gfseuw-1-204.png

Average then.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Indeed Mike -

With those uppers too the majority of places should exceed 20c, with the mid-twenties possible somewhere in the SE/London area

gfseuw-1-204.png

Lots of low pressure with brief ridges of high pressure throughout July

 

Wednesday 1 July – Sunday 5 July

The month will start with a shallow area of low pressure overhead, and several fronts in the vicinity. Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly cloudy and fresh, with patchy light rain across Northern Ireland and Scotland, and showers across many parts of Wales and England. On Thursday night, a front will push in from the Atlantic and into Northern Ireland, bringing brisk winds and rather persistent rain here into Friday morning. image.thumb.png.c0661e98efef94c9fe8ea8021986c466.png
 

 

 

Friday will be a wet day for many as the front tracks eastwards into Scotland and gradually into northern England and Wales later in the day. The exception will likely be for southeast England, where the front is unlikely to reach until Friday night, by which point the rain will become increasingly patchy. It will remain fresh and windy over the weekend.image.thumb.png.ab395b459ede4b93f584dd78fa93297e.png

Friday's front will linger over England and Wales on Saturday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and patches of light rain. On Sunday, an another area of low pressure will deepen as it heads in from the Atlantic and towards the northwest of the UK. Strong winds can be expected almost everywhere, but particularly for northern Scotland. There will be rain too, being more persistent and widespread for Northern Ireland and Scotland, whilst southeast England may avoid the rain entirely.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 12 July

The deep area of low pressure that will affect the UK over the preceding weekend will move away into Scandinavia on Sunday night.
This will allow a northerly flow to develop over the UK for the first few days of the week.
With cooler air feeding in from the north, it will turn fairly cool for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a scattering of light showers blowing in from the north, too.

 

image.thumb.png.4bc83c821e98679419558a447a89daa7.png
From mid-week onwards, a few low pressures are expected to track in once more from the Atlantic, bringing some rain and breezy conditions to the UK at times through the remainder of the week.
However, these unsettled periods may be largely confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst southern parts of England and Wales may stay mainly dry.
This is because high pressure over western Europe is expected to extend into the south of the UK, forcing fronts in the north to weaken as they nudge in from the northwest.
As a result, the wettest and windiest weather is likely to be across northern areas from mid-week through to the weekend, whilst Southeast England should see some dry and calm days.

image.thumb.png.3ced1151859e46e332a4aff25543b0cb.png

 

Monday 13 July – Sunday 26 July

A continuation of the previous week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, high pressure should still be holding some influence over the southern half of the UK. This should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for mainly dry and calm conditions across southern England and Wales.

image.thumb.png.1b8c00557a0679801c863d21ae05382b.png

The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud impeding the Sun's warmth.image.thumb.png.9c1e7615f0476643d27b5ac6c933b901.png

Deeper in July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK by the week of Monday 20th, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the latter part of the month has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods in July 2020 yet, late-July may be a reasonable candidate for one.

image.png

Edited by NApplewhite
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Posted (edited)

ECM T168:

2040EBB8-2C89-49F0-B61E-6CC0FE23C90B.gif

Looks like about a week today we may be expecting high pressure and settled weather across large parts of the country, following GFS here.  Temperatures won’t be spectacular unless a bit of the ridge breaks off and heads to Scandi.  The models haven’t shown that yet, so pleasant summer sun the order of the day once we get past this unsettled week.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted (edited)

12z GEM @90 is decent for the south

gem-0-90.png   gem-1-90.thumb.png.4682dd614e5beb5f1b0833b5d953ae82.png

Edited by Zak M
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A4579F9A-1249-48AB-A528-EE084364FBB9.thumb.jpeg.2f149d73d8dff967c2abd8c77dfd08ee.jpeg

I think transient ridges are the best we will get looking at this. Stubbornly negative, which is never really a good sign for longer lasting UK/NW Europe settled weather. We will see.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

A4579F9A-1249-48AB-A528-EE084364FBB9.thumb.jpeg.2f149d73d8dff967c2abd8c77dfd08ee.jpeg

I think transient ridges are the best we will get looking at this. Stubbornly negative, which is never really a good sign for longer lasting UK/NW Europe settled weather. We will see.

While I am also seeing a repeating sequence of settled / unsettled for the foreseeable, I have to wonder if there is something else at play here, given the bullishness of the MO updates of today and yesterday, and the models today.  SSTs always a possibility:

C5539D22-941C-4E0A-B9B2-7184F3AF8930.thumb.png.9b737bcc4fedabd3c9d433e6f5c6f847.png

Pick the bones out of that. ENSO doesn’t seem an issue, someone mentioned the IOD earlier in the season, as I’m seeing warmth in the western sector, think it was @Singularitysurely this previously never heard of phenomenon couldn’t influence summer as well as last winter?  But in a positive way?  Above my pay grade that!  An aside - N Atlantic, for winter, maybe edging towards a tripole?

Edited by Mike Poole
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ECM looking good at 240, what could possibly go wrong.

TBH guys the outlook is pretty grim for 90% of the UK for the next 10 days, let's not try to polish a turd.

Andy

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4 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

ECM looking good at 240, what could possibly go wrong.

TBH guys the outlook is pretty grim for 90% of the UK for the next 10 days, let's not try to polish a turd.

Andy

Time you went back to drawing board simply misleading to suggest so, set to settle down across all areas early next week looking to last remainder of week at least a brief blip on Friday viewing ECM 12z. Might not be a scorcher but much improved. 

998E35EA-5FA6-49BB-A5C6-42C6E849A6F4.thumb.gif.092fba795af32efdc7566f76aefb5e7b.gif

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22 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

ECM looking good at 240, what could possibly go wrong.

TBH guys the outlook is pretty grim for 90% of the UK for the next 10 days, let's not try to polish a turd.

Andy

For Scotland NI and NW Eng I would agree it's not ideal.but anywhere Midlands South should be reasonable...

As it ever twas,the westerly component is never great for the North West.

 

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12z ECM clusters:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070112_168.thumb.png.32b6b9c399581d323c0a8abf8c5cdd4a.png

Some disagreement there about the high. 22 of the members have the whole of the country unsettled, while the other 29 members do have the high trying to ridge in, with the south seeing the warm and settled conditions. Bottom left I would bank.

8-10 day 500mb mean:

test8.thumb.gif.3b6e33a8c1a615ad8c813591861032a2.gif

GFS on the right has western and southern parts seeing the best of the warm and settled conditions, while the far east and far north could be introduced to something a bit more unsettled and on the cool side. This could need monitoring but the GFS has a habit of changing things quite significantly, especially at around 96 hrs, so I'm not putting anything on it!

CFSv2 500hpa anomalies for weeks 1 and 2:

1449380767_wk1.wk2_20200630.z500(1).thumb.png.fed45c8f3ddb060cf95a4ecebe33375f.png

Once again, this has the south seeing the most settled conditions, while up north looks to be a bit more unsettled. Week 1 doesn't look too good for the majority of the country, but it has an improving picture, not everywhere, but for most places on week 2. Way into the unreliable timeframe though so this could change in a blink of an eye.

So to summarise it all, the far south will be the place to be if you're after something warm and settled, with perhaps a few unsettled interludes thrown in. The north looks to be mainly unsettled for the next 5-6 days. In my opinion, as we enter the second week and mid-July, I think it should be an improving picture everywhere. I'm not an expert though so I will not be betting on anything from the unreliable timeframe just yet ?

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