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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Amazing from the 00z NASA-GEOS5¬†ūüėõ

    geos-0-144.png

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...ūüĎł Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed¬†suspicious¬†the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Quite a nice GFS 00Z this morning, as the Azores ridge continues to push and pull, somewhere near to the south of the UK; although it never gains total control. Anywho, there'll be plenty of summery weather around...:hi:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I'll no' bother with the ens, as they're still only on 18Z...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Close but no cigar this morning, all the models just about keep high pressure in control through days 6-7, although low pressure close to the north of Scotland may introduce a cooler pool of air and a weak northerly. In fact there's probably about the best cross agreement we've seen in weeks with this solution this morning. GEM probably the most optimistic this morning and keep some warmer uppers in for longer and temps into the high 20s for the south. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Doesn't look too bad - rest of this week doesn't look anything special mind you, with plenty of cloud and disappointing temperatures for the next 4 days. Potential for something warmer next weekend (25-28c range) - especially in the south.

    Thankfully it doesn't look drastically wet. A few western slopes in Wales, the NW England/Scotland could see a bit of a soaking, but on the whole it's just your usual summer weather.

    As mentioned last night, as we go forward it looks like how long we can hold on to this fine weather will be the key. We're there by our fingernails at the moment, with a negative AO and NAO in play and a NH profile like this, it isn't usually a sustainable one for UK warmth and settled weather. One to watch.
    image.thumb.png.79cc2927b785f929a799272c2452830a.png
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    image.thumb.png.c8866c2667e9334765ae54c78eb5fbb1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    50 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Close but no cigar this morning, all the models just about keep high pressure in control through days 6-7, although low pressure close to the north of Scotland may introduce a cooler pool of air and a weak northerly. In fact there's probably about the best cross agreement we've seen in weeks with this solution this morning. GEM probably the most optimistic this morning and keep some warmer uppers in for longer and temps into the high 20s for the south. 

    Story of the Summer with the Azores high struggling to impose itself.

    For the South East probably better chances of blue skies and little rain, for the North West, drier but cloudy with occasional rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, Tamara said:

    Pode me elucidar por favour? :unsure2:

    This isn't picking on any given individual before¬†I am duly charged and confined within a nunneryūüôÜ‚Äć‚ôÄÔłŹ¬† But such¬†a sweeping¬†assertion is very questionable . It is¬†one model suite - as a snapshot in time. Till the next model suite and the next snapshot in time - and so on and so forth. Why should this particular suite have any more credence than any other?

    There has been apparent agreement for all sorts of outcomes in recent weeks and yet countless varying outcomes  - such is the customary nature of numerical models that evolve according to the signals and so it is not possible to make definitive assertions about any apparent computer model consensus over any other. If there is indeed any at any given time.

    As emphasised so often in recent times, NWP is going to keep struggling based on the persistence of the low frequency tropical signal in the Western Hemisphere amplifying the upstream pattern and tending to accentuate the jet stream downstream  vs on the other hand wave breaking within the tropics at times propagating rossby waves into the extra tropics and building transitory series of downstream ridges within the mid latitudes. Hence the ebb and flow of the Azores ridge.

    What is now happening, and what is different to what has been seen in the previous 15 days, is that sub tropical ridging is becoming more prominent downstream due to greater anticyclonic wave-breaking and with relatively less erosion of the ridging from the north and less pronounced retraction of the ridging than previously. 

    As also stated just yesterday, there is probability still for innate tendency for this ridging to pull back westwards from time to time and much of NWP vicissitude will revolve around this equation - but for such interruptions to be appreciably shorter and less extensive than seen since late June. On that basis it is not intuitive to pronounce any particular NWP as more consensual than any other as there are also bifurcating processes at work downstream to combat the attritional effects of the jet riding around the northern perimeter of the Azores/Atlantic ridge

    This will continue to be an evolving process and not the essence of one given model suite to rigidly extrapolate its findings out in time. ūüôā

     

    Why is it questionable? It's merely pointing out an observation I made, yes its only one suite, but ultimately that doesn't matter and hence the comment of almost surprise there appeared to some brief harmony between the model output forthe first time in a while GFS, UKMO, GEM, ECM & ICON (possibly ICON slightly less so) all showed HP regressing back south westwards again and another cooler pool of upper air coming near to the UK at days 6 & 7 from the north.

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Thanks Tams for your current thoughts, and your new found Portuguese Language.. ūü§£Just kidding.. ūüėČ

    This week does look a tad average with a good deal of cloud and at times some rain a round. I'm sensing an improvement come the Weekend, especially further South and should be a little warmer too.. Still no great shakes further North though! Early next week with High Pressure building to the West we should again have some decent conditions and perhaps warmer, the Met office app seems to favour a better outcome for the Weekend here also. Overall the next 10 day's look decent for many places away from the far North. 

    EDM1-120 (1).gif

    EDM1-144 (1).gif

    EDM1-168 (1).gif

    EDM1-192 (1).gif

    EDM1-216 (1).gif

    EDM1-240 (1).gif

    graphe1_00_285_79___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    4 hours ago, Alderc said:

    Close but no cigar this morning, all the models just about keep high pressure in control through days 6-7, although low pressure close to the north of Scotland may introduce a cooler pool of air and a weak northerly. In fact there's probably about the best cross agreement we've seen in weeks with this solution this morning. GEM probably the most optimistic this morning and keep some warmer uppers in for longer and temps into the high 20s for the south. 

    image.thumb.png.83f0055dbcd19dc749341eadfcc790db.pngimage.thumb.png.2f32102cdc2ff7a98989aa94c67c52bf.pngimage.thumb.png.c1ee6ccdef6f06e92606fc4fc93151e3.pngimage.thumb.png.b4130ae8c4a234b5627c9fe4fef53fc3.png Fairly decent weather next week but no heatwave.  Wet week commencing 27th July. image.thumb.png.94cb19f1114aec14e18c255d4f89afe5.png

    Edited by NApplewhite
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    20 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    image.thumb.png.83f0055dbcd19dc749341eadfcc790db.pngimage.thumb.png.2f32102cdc2ff7a98989aa94c67c52bf.pngimage.thumb.png.c1ee6ccdef6f06e92606fc4fc93151e3.pngimage.thumb.png.b4130ae8c4a234b5627c9fe4fef53fc3.png Fairly decent weather next week but no heatwave.  Wet week commencing 27th July. image.thumb.png.94cb19f1114aec14e18c255d4f89afe5.png

    LOL. Forecasting precipitation from GFS in the far reaches of FI!

    I dare say that says it all ‚Äď a much more summery picture ahead in the south for the foreseeable.¬†

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    55 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    I admire your confidence with that rainfall forecast.

    that must be the nicest way of saying "nonsense" ive ever seen on here... lol

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Why is it questionable?

    It wasnt. You were doing what many others do... pass a legitimate comment on what the current models were, in you humble opinion, were showing.

    I thought thats what this forum was for... for the record, i tend to agree that the models are now begining to show some broad agreement after some wild swings recently...

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    1 hour ago, NApplewhite said:

    image.thumb.png.83f0055dbcd19dc749341eadfcc790db.pngimage.thumb.png.2f32102cdc2ff7a98989aa94c67c52bf.pngimage.thumb.png.c1ee6ccdef6f06e92606fc4fc93151e3.pngimage.thumb.png.b4130ae8c4a234b5627c9fe4fef53fc3.png Fairly decent weather next week but no heatwave.  Wet week commencing 27th July. image.thumb.png.94cb19f1114aec14e18c255d4f89afe5.png

    27th July is two weeks away, are you seriously suggesting that the forecast for the period commencing on that date will be accurate?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    The End of today’s 6z Navgem . 

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    677FBADF-76AF-4D98-98C9-6342DD4FAB31.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    What it looks like in London over next 15 days based on EPS backed off from heat this weekend all looking very average going forward, which isn’t bad. I’ll be shocked if this months adds to tally at least going by 1981-2010 average that seems increasingly unlikely.

    4344A8C1-6476-4BFC-8516-98DDD485978C.thumb.jpeg.ce79f384b045c96cbc8880c79bfa4785.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    CFSv2's take:

    wk1.wk2_20200712_z500.thumb.png.558a0731d8db912e2c48820485ec2abe.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    UKMO looks like next week could be looking pretty good. 

    UW72-21.gif

    UW96-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    giphy-8.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    AE502C5B-00C6-4AD7-B487-DFA1064E8D37.thumb.png.aa43c09869ce6128bab469e5d2dec024.png

    UKMO building high pressure back in by Sunday.

    DFB4946A-7631-4EE9-BBB2-18D121060C9E.thumb.gif.1522779be4cb6a46a76f74622741b63e.gif3167C1C5-6C8E-4F7A-81CB-7E87C972BAF2.thumb.gif.e69fcbdc23848b0037e2109f7eeb1399.gif
     

    Though talk of a warmer weekend is fast going down the pan if ukmo is believed - looks quite cool to be honest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    AE502C5B-00C6-4AD7-B487-DFA1064E8D37.thumb.png.aa43c09869ce6128bab469e5d2dec024.png

    UKMO building high pressure back in by Sunday.

    DFB4946A-7631-4EE9-BBB2-18D121060C9E.thumb.gif.1522779be4cb6a46a76f74622741b63e.gif3167C1C5-6C8E-4F7A-81CB-7E87C972BAF2.thumb.gif.e69fcbdc23848b0037e2109f7eeb1399.gif
     

    Though talk of a warmer weekend is fast going down the pan if ukmo is believed - looks quite cool to be honest.

    Was just about to say the same, bbc showed 27C for Friday 29C for Saturday earlier, which is what this mornings GFS also showed however that's looking very optimistic now as cold upper pool (Which for the last few days has been a sharp outlier on GFS ensembles) becomes the most likely option. Only really Friday looks remotely warm and thats only in the south east. So while UKMO builds back in nicely cold nights and average days assuming the pattern doesn't get flattened again.......

     

    All too often this sort of chart as shown by the GFS 12Z for D8 nearly always become the sort of chart shown in second image which is now this weekend 

     

     

    GFSOPEU12_192_1307.png

    GFSOPEU12_114_1307.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Slightly disappointing output so far this evening .Ukmo is okay but not as good as previous runs . I hope the ecm is better later .

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Don't like the look of UKMO - that has the hallmarks of the high moving out into the Atlantic in subsequent frames.

    144 chart looks cloudy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Don't like the look of UKMO - that has the hallmarks of the high moving out into the Atlantic in subsequent frames.

    144 chart looks cloudy.

    All the TV forecasts were saying tomorrow through to and including Friday would all be very overcast. Its really turning out to be a dull summer to date, both literally and from any interesting weather perspective down here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    A couple of days ago I was looking forward to a nice week and weekend for this week....that’s been watered down to a cloudy and cool week, with potentially no nice weekend either (ecm pending). A constant theme of this wretched summer, where nice weather appears and just gets chipped away into nothing.

    Look at this ecm chart for Saturday a couple of days back. Looked lovely. Now looking completely different.

    F423EC9C-2BE6-438B-A5F2-3919C26EBA8E.thumb.gif.eab8e5cca7325e7938988b4677a1c839.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    A couple of days ago I was looking forward to a nice week and weekend for this week....that’s been watered down to a cloudy and cool week, with potentially no nice weekend either (ecm pending). A constant theme of this wretched summer, where nice weather appears and just gets chipped away into nothing.

    Look at this ecm chart for Saturday a couple of days back. Looked lovely. Now looking completely different.

    F423EC9C-2BE6-438B-A5F2-3919C26EBA8E.thumb.gif.eab8e5cca7325e7938988b4677a1c839.gif

    Atlantic is underestimated on the models in FI, as it gets closer the settled weather tends to become more Atlantic dominated as it gets closer in July and Aug, key EC coming up, hope it dosen't trend towards UKMO and GFS

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