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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    So T144, key time, here’s UKMO, GFS, GEM, 

    03B597F3-DC42-4AFD-A311-F8CE79E09803.thumb.gif.65d5066fe1cc4ef913b23173590bb42a.gifACCC5A89-2FFE-4D1B-9D10-D712C4A4F9CC.thumb.png.9ecefb93512a93266b482c81ab0d3bb7.pngF6BD48CA-0F85-4AFD-9108-D304E451B31A.thumb.png.0fb4dafadb731aff5d555b011efe0bd2.png

    I’m thinking a UKMO/GEM blend will be the result, we will see...

    Where would rain be on those charts? At the green/yellow border?

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Where would rain be on those charts? At the green/yellow border?

    Yes,maybe, but if you are in the green region, at this time of year, it could just be cloudy, need to look at the surface weather, fronts etc. to determine what the weather will actually be like, and that is difficult to do at the T144 timescale.  I think it is a case of watch this space, but it is looking much more promising for settled weather the second half of July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well the GFS Ops run again is in a small group of very pessimistic ensembles, three quarters of the ensembles keep things warmer and more settled for much longer.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls , I present to you , This evenings Mighty Super Navgem 👌💪😃.

    D5CA4A9D-C47C-4888-9B9E-BF780933CB4E.png

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    476EAB55-1FD4-4D0B-9668-A6A1F81BD8A4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM has a very strong push of an Azores ridge our way at just T96, hardly likely to be wrong from there....A2441582-EDD6-4DA0-944A-C05091A73691.thumb.gif.a5202b2d3bbeea956bb99f17b77b9be2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144:

    9E18C681-31AB-4A57-8D79-76D539DCEAC4.thumb.gif.239ab43ce9b1efccd39d16a3252e8bb3.gif

    And with a bit of a push behind it out west...could be interesting development from here, but so far is consistent with other models re building a settled spell...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    This could be fun - as the next low from the Atlantic approaches, will we see all that heat sucked north? 

    Yes!

    ECM1-192.thumb.gif.2dc1f217aa059b4903e9a135a99896ad.gif   ECM0-192.thumb.gif.e021dca4b76c8feae4323f1c774b2441.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T168:

    7ACCCB18-064A-4E42-9EA5-CFC1FFE1E34E.thumb.gif.6cf9750ed40ffd0fa15a4211d6598fac.gifE71FF65B-EA30-4685-B455-1F6672E2A77A.thumb.gif.744f6d516a4a17b043060251f2c6e137.gif

    And now it gets interesting as we suck up warm T850s from the south...

    They’re more than warm enough. Don’t see much drive to bring hottest air up pattern quite slack.

    66AF7CCF-A160-4EDC-A6D0-ABC557E07008.thumb.png.63d77d44b33f928191c79d9010005052.png40D2B4F9-1FED-4B03-A666-372A7CABCFB3.thumb.png.c1f34c7ce55c3d5c0b3e3bb3cd0612e1.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T192:

    F83BA1BC-AA79-4474-9602-48881E8BC13A.thumb.gif.8ba66d6fee69c4fc865b334f9fa6abfb.gifF0FA14DA-04B4-438C-A0EB-B39247160DAC.thumb.gif.56667827fd56961d7df5c6da03c00ced.gif

    Obviously way into FI now, but this signal is coming up on model after model, summer well and truly back, whether we get the really hot temperatures, cant say at the moment, but just sunshine would suite me....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Doesn’t appear to be a sustainable pattern looking upstream. 

    BD1753DD-D877-43F2-85DD-D53E6EE31876.thumb.png.8a4e48dac7e5e2e570fede60fb98c3ba.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    @192

    ECM0-216.thumb.gif.79020ab5d98030d7e6302c1fa2e6be13.gif

    16c uppers in the south - certainly could be a 30c potential.

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Bang! 

    ECM1-216.GIF?12-0

    There's been so much eye candy on the ECM D9/D10 charts recently. Just a sense we're starting to close in on actual summer weather now, not just fantasy charts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    @192

    ECM0-216.thumb.gif.79020ab5d98030d7e6302c1fa2e6be13.gif

    16c uppers in the south - certainly could be a 30c potential.

    Probably not worth elaborating but heatwave threshold is meet for SE/EA. This will probably be on warmer side of pack.

    4A7361A2-E6E3-4B0A-92EC-88C7D6C2856E.thumb.png.33ebda3c2aa47867ba5183212208d40c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    This is why a weak (-0.5 > -1.5 ) NAO can bring heat to the UK - same as last year

    Greenland High + Trough over Scandi - the col well north of the UK

    Trough anchored out west & high pressure just over the UK / to our East

    Would be funny if we got another shot at extreme heat this July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Would be funny if we got another shot at extreme heat this July.

    Hm well we can quite easily see heat it’s high summer I don’t see any prospect of extreme heat on ECM 12z tho going beyond. We’d be left with a cut off Greenland high and probably a visit from an Atlantic low.

    18F821BB-9A70-4BE7-9BB1-198BBB65E619.thumb.jpeg.f2c7aa6a714da4dae3d8a64f6bb0847c.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Hm well we can quite easily see heat it’s high summer I don’t see any prospect of extreme heat on ECM 12z tho going beyond. We’d be left with a cut off Greenland high and probably a visit from an Atlantic low.

    18F821BB-9A70-4BE7-9BB1-198BBB65E619.thumb.jpeg.f2c7aa6a714da4dae3d8a64f6bb0847c.jpeg

    Wasn’t talking about the ECM op as such - just responding to @Steve Murr

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I wonder if there is storm potential on EC ,looks warm and very slack later on...

    🌤️⛈️☀️

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It's a pleasing ECM mean it has to be said.. What better way to wind down on a beautiful summers day by viewing some summer type sypnotics... Oh and watching the Purge Anorchy.. 🤣🎥

    The op was a bit of an outlier regarding 850s, but also somewhat of an outlier regarding Pressure come the end.. More solid from the mean. 

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

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    tenor-16.gif

    graphe0_00_298_91___.png

    graphe1_00_298_91___.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    The Azores High now a clear form horse as we approach the weekend. No extreme heat nor oppressive nights, just lovely weather for the south as the children break up for the school holidays. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    My faith in the EC clusters is coming back a little - about 10 days ago I noted how the clusters were trying to lift the jet north - it's happened - and about 6 days ago I remarked on the possibility of a heatwave for the coming weekend, based on the clusters - it's still a possibility at just T120. So, I can't be too critical. 

    What have they been saying recently for the end of July? Nothing exciting, I'm afraid. A trough moving towards Scandi at first, which might lead to a short spell of NWlies (might avoid the south), and then back to something flatter and a westerly regime - given the time of year, always the chance of Southern areas joining in with the heat of the continent on such a set-up but not a huge probability. 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020071212_300.

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