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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    11 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Morning NW .What's this "det" you include in a lot of your posts🤔I'd agree also in regard to the Azores high influence but whether it has any longevity remains to be seen with all usual caveats .tia

    Deterministic run I think i.e. the op run

    Edited by Downpour
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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    29 minutes ago, Downpour said:

    Deterministic run I think i.e. the op run

    So it's the operational run,🤔 ok cheers.ecmw looking nay to bad today but the current fluctuations are atm are quite strong

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Re your post commenting on my earlier one Tamara

    Thanks for your usual in depth input. 

    What puzzles me re the 500 mb anomaly sets, and not just this morning, it has already happened twice if not three times in the past 2-3 weeks, it is whatever the long term pattern and teleconnections may or may not show, in 10 years of daily watching and logging them into my weather files on my pc I cannot recall them being so unreliable this early in summer. One of their 'weak' spells is at the northern hemisphere seasonal change over, winter to summer and summer to winter. Another weak period is the north Atlantic main hurricane season. Note I write main, so I rarely see this happening before late August at the earliest. I have no idea why it is showing this weakness in reliability for predicting the main trough-ridge pattern, perhaps some change in logarithmic input into the main models is causing this, just a thought. 

    What would you speculate might be a possible reason, or indeed anyone else that posts in heer?

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Wow, not the best Gfs 6z operational, however, for the south there’s plenty of ridging for most of the run so nae so bad darn sarf but for the north it’s a bit of a bum deal..ps..great post as always from Tamara, sorry tams, can’t add anything at this time.🙂

    ps..no disrespect to southerners, my dads an eastender!😜

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS 06Z Ops run a pretty big outlier in the south however I still don't like the continual tendency for almost every GFS & ECM Ops to be an outlier currently, very little consistency beyond 5days. Still the mean 850s for GFS above 10C for 4 or 5 days down here from the weekend although again the coming week less than straightforward with fronts, cloud and drizzly bit of rain coming around and over the top of our high pressure and cooler 850's that'll only be mixed out in a slack pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Nice to wake up to a positive set of runs!

    Thought I would include the 00z ECM clusters @144:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020071200_144.thumb.png.b37ea633b684e8a366c5ffab8576cf81.png

    And feast your eyes on the GEM... 🤩🙏

    gem-0-162.thumb.png.fc53219de3c406d7ffcf47ab5ef86c6a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well, looking at the GEFS 6z mean I’m seeing what is essentially a north / south split although some would see this as a simplified assessment, I think it’s about right although this is only based on the 6z mean, there is tons of other model output which may be telling a different story?..anyway, for southern u k, especially southern England it’s probably quite a decent outlook, increasingly naff the further north you go!?😉

    charts not in the correct order..I’ve been drinking, I actually enjoy posting more when I’ve had a few..less inhibitions !!!.hiccup..:drunk:😜

    B26DF823-A61A-4874-9F6E-B59297F97F6F.thumb.png.39fb21daddbb710c0c80b81029405a6a.png14A8C04D-7FF7-4942-B23C-F9A07A55D01B.thumb.png.51efb712e0d3418f3b88726fb52d2729.pngED0A91A7-C452-4E2A-8F15-1D693A934AEF.thumb.png.e83f6157adc6cf9d803a155657086d12.png

    791084D0-F84E-42D8-8310-75DB97ED4700.gif

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    Re your post commenting on my earlier one Tamara

    Thanks for your usual in depth input. 

    What puzzles me re the 500 mb anomaly sets, and not just this morning, it has already happened twice if not three times in the past 2-3 weeks, it is whatever the long term pattern and teleconnections may or may not show, in 10 years of daily watching and logging them into my weather files on my pc I cannot recall them being so unreliable this early in summer. One of their 'weak' spells is at the northern hemisphere seasonal change over, winter to summer and summer to winter. Another weak period is the north Atlantic main hurricane season. Note I write main, so I rarely see this happening before late August at the earliest. I have no idea why it is showing this weakness in reliability for predicting the main trough-ridge pattern, perhaps some change in logarithmic input into the main models is causing this, just a thought. 

    What would you speculate might be a possible reason, or indeed anyone else that posts in heer?

     

     

    Could it be down to disruption caused by unusually deep, early,  tropical storms in the western Atlantic injecting more energy then usual into the North Atlantic mix?

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I think that has to a possible even probable  reason mushy, but then why are they so early?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    As I mentioned already, the last third of July may be preety decent across southern parts of the u k as these GEFS 6z charts show, of course this doesn’t preclude that more of the u k won’t see some summery weather to!..it’s very quiet in here..is everyone busy watching England lose at cricket (as usual)?😜

    C7A02166-9FFE-40CC-A58A-67ADC8387415.thumb.png.56f7a18c62a2f7b5cf1d5d13031f320d.png352C9A17-98A6-4B68-9977-A24CD39C90C9.thumb.png.8941bf4059e037e2922e16db6471bc17.png19E2CD7E-0C51-41F0-BAE7-FE6168786B59.thumb.png.6a0216162fd8b13f5b1b2b275be83a8a.pngFF8F197B-B90D-4F75-BB62-434AC505EBC2.thumb.png.b9a071be44ea9c602cb1f207abd89d1e.pngAC92668E-3726-495D-B383-8579A24C566F.thumb.png.e11fc219d93ecd21d2059dd923a998a0.pngAB476497-EB0B-48B0-A2BE-D5CD7718DD49.thumb.png.c55fd1139ca948d92811caa9281ebd93.png3833D4B7-FA51-4AFF-A4E4-CD55AD882D92.thumb.png.c1560c8d0601f630685aa0489e9ea2db.pngF023685F-7122-455E-8FE5-670789A80EAD.thumb.png.c305d89a07cafdf2e42813d9ee8df2c3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    31 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    I think that has to a possible even probable  reason mushy, but then why are they so early?

    I have no clue, lol, good question though.. perhaps the Azores high is weaker then usual? due to AAM being weak? maybe @Tamara may have some insight into this , as, if i understand her last post correctly (and i may be well off) it would suggest so?... Total guess, but maybe these early vigorous TS energy/influence may have been lessened IF the Azores high was stronger, as in being held in position longer but if whatever drives the AZH is weak then its protective influence is reduced?

    I dunno.... im just thinking out loud and may be miles off...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

    Well, looking at the GEFS 6z mean I’m seeing what is essentially a north / south split although some would see this as a simplified assessment, I think it’s about right although this is only based on the 6z mean, there is tons of other model output which may be telling a different story?..anyway, for southern u k, especially southern England it’s probably quite a decent outlook, increasingly naff the further north you go!?😉

    charts not in the correct order..I’ve been drinking, I actually enjoy posting more when I’ve had a few..less inhibitions !!!.hiccup..:drunk:😜

    B26DF823-A61A-4874-9F6E-B59297F97F6F.thumb.png.39fb21daddbb710c0c80b81029405a6a.png14A8C04D-7FF7-4942-B23C-F9A07A55D01B.thumb.png.51efb712e0d3418f3b88726fb52d2729.pngED0A91A7-C452-4E2A-8F15-1D693A934AEF.thumb.png.e83f6157adc6cf9d803a155657086d12.png

    791084D0-F84E-42D8-8310-75DB97ED4700.gif

    You say its quite in here Karl... Just a thought most people are lapping up the sun after 3 weeks of crap, rather than sitting infront of the box watching England trying to play cricket... Just a thought.. 🤣

    Icon looks rather good, even suggests an Azores/scandy link up... Better output it as to be said... Beautiful here today... More mixed through till. Midweek before improving later in the week and warming up towards the weekend... ☀️😘

    icon-0-96.png

    icon-0-120.png

    icon-0-144.png

    icon-0-165.png

    icon-0-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    🤤

    UW120-21 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Jet looks to be trending further north, which can only be a good thing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    UKMO looks decent @ T144 but the pattern is starting to get squeezed and flattened and the GFS output after a couple of warmer days in the extreme south (Fri & Sat) turns to a northerly, we'll be very unlucky to end up with that.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    UKMO looks decent @ T144 but the pattern is starting to get squeezed and flattened and the GFS output after a couple of warmer days in the extreme south (Fri & Sat) turns to a northerly, we'll be very unlucky to end up with that.....

    I don’t see how the UKMO 144 chart can’t lead to a prolonged warm spell. The jet is to the north and there is a positive tilt to the Azores high ridging in. Not bothered what GFS does with it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I don’t see how the UKMO 144 chart can’t lead to a prolonged warm spell. The jet is to the north and there is a positive tilt to the Azores high ridging in. Not bothered what GFS does with it!

    Key EC coming up then, GFS is awful

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Key EC coming up then, GFS is awful

    Why is it a key ECM! I'm pretty sure we had this conversation on here the other day when just because we had a dodgy GFS run, some were saying big ECM run coming up! Does GFS ever put 2 or 3 runs together the same! I think this model is becoming pretty pointless tbh, pergaps it's time it had another upgrade, cause the last one seems to have Downgraded the model. 

    I was almost waiting for your most favourite comment of... Hey the Atlantic always dominates in July and August.. 😉UKMO looks good.. I look forward to Mondays EC46.. Don't get to stressed over GFS it really is struggling. 

    And talking about some good runs... Not a bad GEM out to day 7..

    gem-0-96.png

    gem-0-120.png

    gem-0-144.png

    gem-0-156.png

    arM6le1.jpg

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS and UKMO are essentially arguing about the low near Iceland. It starts to deepen before weakening and the differences in the strength and timing are why the models disagree. Very strange at such close range but then it's strange to deepen then weaken. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    21 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I don’t see how the UKMO 144 chart can’t lead to a prolonged warm spell. The jet is to the north and there is a positive tilt to the Azores high ridging in. Not bothered what GFS does with it!

    Famous last words, all you’d need is the eastern extension of the high to build further and pressure would drop over the U.K

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    So T144, key time, here’s UKMO, GFS, GEM, 

    03B597F3-DC42-4AFD-A311-F8CE79E09803.thumb.gif.65d5066fe1cc4ef913b23173590bb42a.gifACCC5A89-2FFE-4D1B-9D10-D712C4A4F9CC.thumb.png.9ecefb93512a93266b482c81ab0d3bb7.pngF6BD48CA-0F85-4AFD-9108-D304E451B31A.thumb.png.0fb4dafadb731aff5d555b011efe0bd2.png

    I’m thinking a UKMO/GEM blend will be the result, we will see...

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