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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Beware the last post from me, it always isn’t.  ICON 18z continues trend to settled even at T120, with 12z T126, with more benign low systems to the NW.

    61CECAFB-9816-4E85-A3F7-EDA29FF1ADF3.thumb.png.ff9bae7e9321ef3c5e7ac0de95d2b58b.pngA97F7B2B-38B8-4D80-81CC-BD86735F75BE.thumb.png.2cc5b6a1541a75c70e06f23e7f8d18b1.png

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS also showing shift in the low to the NW here T90 vs 12z T96:

    6D196425-C82C-4E55-8A45-62B189DCCFB9.thumb.png.f5d6e6da2382c834d424e483b77eb422.png19A118CE-6986-4593-9C04-8401E441E4B0.thumb.png.2418d89c7d3367faf5955d2631732efd.png

    Should support ridging.  I’m just bored in the lockdown basically.  It is better than watching paint dry!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS pub run T150:

    2F084B5B-7FF1-49DE-8175-7668CB62BE5B.thumb.png.d67e2884f2e83d2165ba87311d64ccac.png

    Now pushing the low out of the way, and there is some upstream oomph there too.  UK high by T216?

    Edit: Well not quite T216:

    C5941C78-CECF-4456-8CA9-87F370DEFCA6.thumb.png.c2dab6f4c00668d1dada5671408da38a.png

    But it is headed in the right direction.....

     

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Last one from me? JMA T264 ends up in an odd configuration:

    678FFC5D-C0B4-4B4F-91DB-9E7AAADD2C66.thumb.gif.c226535f1ce0cd62059120b621c91685.gif

    I think there is a lot  of variability and uncertainty about the upcoming period, it is going to take a few days before the models can paint a  picture of the likely way forward, I’m thinking settled after about day 8 but we will see....

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 0z I don’t think it will be to long before we see a general improvement, at least across southern u k and that also continues into mid month..there is some great potential..so, I’m quite optimistic about the mid / longer term this morning..sorry about the charts not all being in the correct order..haven’t woken up yet.zzz!?:lazy:

    96C3542E-68DE-4590-A423-475AC4EFC0EA.thumb.png.6cd396bc7d00b1707da4149d0203d790.pngA39F14C2-1552-44A8-B9D8-AC5BE8C204D1.thumb.png.95384435c06cd414a3a354915b52c0bc.pngCBE9EAEC-51A2-479C-8FD5-62A907E74A29.thumb.png.2d4bdb7caa78da2b5f7a56d83be04b5d.png0D79088D-2E47-46D7-9039-AFB8D40D7E3F.thumb.png.0d314b3d177bf8f64fa5807ce4343154.png000C1534-2FF8-4CB8-8433-3D0D941F0B06.thumb.png.d08fcfd792f35c53b10a2b26b8e64487.png7C47FE40-F9CC-40AB-AAC1-BDBDD45FC40F.thumb.png.7b6842b075e0010fd0f0a724f2e27d88.pngF48B0BD8-369E-4D73-AACA-147D0A57E1CB.thumb.png.370743e0db8ff0ec4e25a990fbda1856.png8DC10C71-AF9C-4ABC-8691-F540611F8CE8.thumb.png.1bb5f4f590cf353b9bc767abb7fe240c.png880AAE9C-3784-4812-A642-CD3E14BC2CB3.thumb.png.3320ef19096ee00fdd33cc656ca7d66b.png2E0A5FDC-EA30-481F-86CE-39D33C90040D.thumb.png.f5195d64e7d94b3f5dc107dfd2ae5411.png

     

     

    DC239F74-EB30-43F4-961A-1706CAAD588C.png

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Indeed Karl; it's starting to look as if (following a short, sharp dip in form) the models are beginning to 'smell the coffee'... We could even see 27-28C down here at the weekend?:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Defo looks like Ridgy McRidgeface is ready for a visit!:oldlaugh:

    GEFS 00Z ensembles are nae bad:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    57 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Indeed Karl; it's starting to look as if (following a short, sharp dip in form) the models are beginning to 'smell the coffee'... We could even see 27-28C down here at the weekend?:yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Defo looks like Ridgy McRidgeface is ready for a visit!:oldlaugh:

    GEFS 00Z ensembles are nae bad:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    27-28C? Really? Despite the transitionary period of 10-12C uppers almost all the models have extensive cloud cover, shower activity and a stiff west or south westerly wind with both GFS & ECM showing 30-45mph gusts even across the east. Temps look low 20's at best, this isn't one situations when you add 2-3C on the raw output.

    While the SE will get a few reasonable days it looks poor with many northern and western areas struggling to get of the rain and temp beyond the mid to high teens look unlikely in these areas.

    With the sharp temperature gradient across the north east of north America looking set to continue I wouldn't be surprised to see a stronger and flatter jet for some time to come, that thermal gradient will power it up and likely point straight for western europe meaning any ridging of the Azores highs will likely be transitionary at best. Think the model show quite well.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Still a fairly mixed outlook, with loads more rain in the forecast in the W/NW/Scotland/N Ireland (see ecm 10 day below). Up to another 4 inches in places with more unseasonable wind and deep lows passing over or close by.

    5CE56EB2-6933-4E7F-9E2E-5270AB93B766.thumb.jpeg.d2093da2ef486954b41927175a54913c.jpeg
     

    Better in the S/SE, but still no sign yet of anything more than a weak ridge of settled weather moving in, nor any real warmth. 

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Still a fairly mixed outlook, with loads more rain in the forecast in the W/NW/Scotland/N Ireland (see ecm 10 day below). Up to another 4 inches in places with more unseasonable wind and deep lows passing over or close by.

    5CE56EB2-6933-4E7F-9E2E-5270AB93B766.thumb.jpeg.d2093da2ef486954b41927175a54913c.jpeg
     

    Better in the S/SE, but still no sign yet of anything more than a weak ridge of settled weather moving in, nor any real warmth. 

    Dreadful ECM run, hopefully an outlier.

    Another failure of the the Azores to ridge in enough to deflect the Atlantic lows away from the NW particularly. Almost zonal in it's output and miles away from the Met Office update yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Dreadful ECM run, hopefully an outlier.

    Another failure of the the Azores to ridge in enough to deflect the Atlantic lows away from the NW particularly. Almost zonal in it's output and miles away from the Met Office update yesterday.

    870073FD-9A5F-4872-9DE4-7BA7935C5A9B.thumb.png.ff8b64747ca223ada87e811fb7521f35.png89D4D406-B68F-41C5-ACC0-766F1C5B6EA6.thumb.png.439f1f75bed1e4d39529a620082425b1.png
     

    It’s not really an outlier. Just a mixed outlook, and probably a result of the low AAM state that the Azores high isn’t building properly.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I suspect regional differences will be quite pronounced over the coming week or so.

    Clearly the SE will be the winner for summer weather while those further North and west will likely have to endure more wind and rain.

    BBC raw shows this up very well, London looking at 20/21 for the next few days before rising to 23 and mainly dry next week, what i would give for that up here on the western Pennines!!

    So the Azores high probably just doing enough to keep the SE contingent happy as it stands.

    Of course things may change over the coming days but the classic NW SE split looks a good shout at the moment.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire

    Certainly a disappointing set of models at the moment. Nothing but Atlantic winds, low pressures moving up past or over Scotland, and weak ridging down here. Should be some fairly reasonable days for England and Wales, but all in all, total borefest weather for the foreseeable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

    Certainly a disappointing set of models at the moment. Nothing but Atlantic winds, low pressures moving up past or over Scotland, and weak ridging down here. Should be some fairly reasonable days for England and Wales, but all in all, total borefest weather for the foreseeable.

    Well, it may be just me, but how can weather that changes, from day to day, be a 'borefest'? I very much doubt that, were we all living in Abu Dhabi, we'd spend too much time looking out the window!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    But... the NW forecast for Sunday is predicting 27C, for Beccles. Ergo, it's possible -- hence my use of the word 'could'!:oldgrin:

    However, and to be fair to alderc, that 'could' has gotten smaller, if today's GFS 06Z is to be believed!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    Dreadful ECM run, hopefully an outlier.

    Another failure of the the Azores to ridge in enough to deflect the Atlantic lows away from the NW particularly. Almost zonal in it's output and miles away from the Met Office update yesterday.

    Firstly you say it's miles away from the Exeter update, which infact they were talking about conditions improving by next Weekend and beyond. And secondly the ECM mean is not to bad at all, we have some decent ridges from the SW at times. I pointed out yesterday further N/NW looks more prone to unsettled conditions in the shorter term and this being backed up from the long range ECM model. 

    Keep in mind that Average Barometric pressure starts at 1013mb and pressure is high or low relative to that benchmark. The mean at least further South is around 1017-1020mb out to mid month which entails not a bad outlook, and certainly not as unsettled as some are making out currently. 

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    25 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Firstly you say it's miles away from the Exeter update, which infact they were talking about conditions improving by next Weekend and beyond. And secondly the ECM mean is not to bad at all, we have some decent ridges from the SW at times. I pointed out yesterday further N/NW looks more prone to unsettled conditions in the shorter term and this being backed up from the long range ECM model. 

    Keep in mind that Average Barometric pressure starts at 1013mb and pressure is high or low relative to that benchmark. The mean at least further South is around 1017-1020mb out to mid month which entails not a bad outlook, and certainly not as unsettled as some are making out currently. 

     

     

     

    Again, it depends where you live. 

    The ECM means have been bigging up the Azores ridge being more prominent for some time only for it to be constantly put back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    06z GFS is a bit of a mixed bag as some of its other runs.

    As others have mentioned, the fine and settled conditions look to be in the far south while it looks to be completely the opposite in the far north.

    It is showing the settled interludes lasting for about 2-3 days

    anim_uqf9.gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    06z GFS is a bit of a mixed bag as some of its other runs.

    As others have mentioned, the fine and settled conditions look to be in the far south while it looks to be completely the opposite in the far north.

    So any settled weather that takes place in the south will last about 2-3 days before it's back to unsettled conditions.

    anim_uqf9.gif

    DE5807FF-4A3A-454A-A8C2-DB8009367B9C.thumb.gif.e46ecf6e605bd1b9c35718bfee2a3bf3.gif

    A bit of warmth towards the end of the week on the 6z, but a long way off. Until then it’s mainly disappointing with mid to high teens for many.

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  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Some fine weather on the 6z mean... Looks pretty much ridge trough scenario out to mid month.. This is where I feel conditions will then begin to improve with High pressure having more influence.. Just noticed the BBC monthly update is singing from the same sheet as the Met. Calling for big improvements from mid month and even further NW later with greater chance of Hot spells. One to watch for sure. 

    gens-0-1-144.png

    gens-0-1-168.png

    gens-0-1-216.png

    gens-0-1-240.png

    gens-0-1-312.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    A sneeky peek at the August pressure anomalies 

    08_2020_00z_500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    31 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    A sneeky peek at the August pressure anomalies 

    08_2020_00z_500.png

    Yes that looks pretty good, and it's what Brian Glaze was calling for in his extended outlook for Summer, namely a good month in August. I think Weather online are also making a similar call too, would be interesting to know what Tams makes of it... Or perhaps she may find it a little to early just yet.. ?

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Yes that looks pretty good, and it's what Brian Glaze was calling for in his extended outlook for Summer, namely a good month in August. I think Weather online are also making a similar call too, would be interesting to know what Tams makes of it... Or perhaps she may find it a little to early just yet.. ?

    If any year needs a good August then this is it! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    On 30/06/2020 at 14:12, Zak M said:

    I think the GEFS perturbations are going crazy again... ?

    What a scorcher of a perturbation p2 is though, definitely would be some thundery potential mainly for the SW. Shame it's way into the unreliable timeframe!

    2_324_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.982b305c580c968df35c0bced236b6a8.png   gens-2-1-324.thumb.png.b92839521bc2b4705319e3f96bde275b.png   gens-2-0-324.thumb.png.a650282ecc4fba4320a570b78a6379be.png

    This perturbation looks good ! 

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