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Model output discussion - into July 2020

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Posted (edited)

ECM just beginning to trickle out , In the meantime the Navgem is here . Drum Roll .....

 

144

A27045AF-B289-4295-AE53-3B3CE060D6A3.png

2AFE6F8D-EB12-49CE-9B9D-A0A22D10C2E4.png

And ends Here .

7A7BCDF8-132F-4EA6-9DF0-28EC89884DD9.png

52768BFA-3305-4650-ABD5-5ED39ED5116E.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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7A597BAF-EC04-4A24-A8DD-508CE7610726.thumb.png.b9edddb974b0eecd0b0e6b10addad937.png

Oh. This looks bad.

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ECM making the gfs look good! Can only be a northerly to follow??

 

 

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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So where's the ECM going at 144?  Well unfortunately, at this point, it's closer to the GFS than the UKMO

GFS / UKMO / ECM

image.thumb.png.0836435ccd185db5387aff0fa63f7a84.pngimage.thumb.png.9b8e949f5036cb6f542eb94d5fc67336.pngimage.thumb.png.92b574cc61fb6e23ce471b0a6d1b32de.png  

Yikes, not what we wanted to see!!!

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What are you doing ECM noooooooooooooooooooooooECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.fa9969dbdb48bda2cc1da170cdc4b545.png

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Just now, Alderc said:

What are you doing ECM noooooooooooooooooooooooECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.fa9969dbdb48bda2cc1da170cdc4b545.png

normal July, Atlantic dominates

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Both ECM and GFS Ops runs have been bashing out these massive outliers surely they both can't be that wrong @144 if its right I hate our climate even more than I already do.....

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Can the ECM be an outlier at such a short range?

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Posted (edited)

3AE64B9B-A9FC-4D8E-9201-4069C578EC92.thumb.png.c66bf92545cc09200a465f5ba5a5956c.png

Rubbish day 7 chart, yet more gale force winds. This late June/early July spell is taking the biscuit if that verifies! Never known so many windy summer days.

Edited by mb018538
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Oh dear, it's a slow moving low shocker!!!  Awful run this one..... I'd take the GFS all day long over this nonsense 😬

image.thumb.png.1adaeb574c5530443134443462363766.png

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One of the worse summer runs I've ever seen from the ECM. But it's in keeping with this truly miserable summer.

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EC 😂😂😂😂

That's egg on my face after laughing at GFS!!!

Unbelievable Jeff.

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This summer, with so many people staying in the UK for a holiday due to the damn virus, could have been a real shot-in-the-arm for the UK tourist industry

But not if people go away in this country and experience this utter guff:

image.thumb.png.ccf75fb0b36adbf5549e250a158bb7b5.png

October-esque

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Its ok though....I'm sure some will point out at day 8 high pressure is very slightly ridging in from the south west and we'll be all rosy by Day 9 or 10 hahahahahaha heard that one before this summer......

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Come on now guys, it's only one run, no need to be too negative, I'm sure that soon we will see a consolation 😉

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Looks to be improving at day 8 mind...

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It seems that every time we look like settling down, something happens to stop it. On the face of it, the background signals haven't been awful this summer. But there is something working against us big time.

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1 minute ago, LRD said:

This summer, with so many people staying in the UK for a holiday due to the damn virus, could have been a real shot-in-the-arm for the UK tourist industry

But not if people go away in this country and experience this utter guff:

image.thumb.png.ccf75fb0b36adbf5549e250a158bb7b5.png

October-esque

TUI's website currently taking a beating....

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13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So where's the ECM going at 144?  Well unfortunately, at this point, it's closer to the GFS than the UKMO

GFS / UKMO / ECM

image.thumb.png.0836435ccd185db5387aff0fa63f7a84.pngimage.thumb.png.9b8e949f5036cb6f542eb94d5fc67336.pngimage.thumb.png.92b574cc61fb6e23ce471b0a6d1b32de.png  

Yikes, not what we wanted to see!!!

But the three are so different here, I think we need to refrain from looking further into the runs until this is properly ironed out pre T144.  Big uncertainty once again as to how this pans out beyond the settled weekend.

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Come on now guys, it's only one run, no need to be too negative, I'm sure that soon we will see a consolation 😉

Yeah but its not, GFS has been ropey for days, the ECM Ops has been trending much poorer and while both at times have been outlier against their ensemble packs they are the highest resolution runs. 

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

It seems that every time we look like settling down, something happens to stop it. On the face of it, the background signals haven't been awful this summer. But there is something working against us big time.

There appears to still be an awful lot we don't yet know about the background signals. I know no theory is full-proof in a science so prone to the butterfly effect like meteorology but background signals have looked ok the previous two winters and they have been dreadful

If this summer turns out to be a stinker, in my neck of the woods it would be the first poor one in quite a while. Probably since 2012. We've had ok/average ones since then but never a shocker. So it could be argued we're due a poor one

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JMA similar to UKMO at T144, well they are out of the same stable aren’t they? and goes on like this to T192:

6125B53F-C395-49EC-A850-E7D33E736A88.thumb.gif.af18fad37d8e6a7f92aa8fa66669b597.gif8666B2D9-81B3-4066-BF84-EFE6602DB8F9.thumb.gif.56c6f3fbf81d8ac6794491d5308359e4.gif

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Well looking at the GEFS 12z I’m certainly seeing signs of summer returning, sure I’m being selective but so what!!..it’s still model related!😜🔥☀️🌩️ 🍒 

E44CB359-A9A8-4926-A64B-6A9912FF25EF.thumb.png.25c31ec8ef2220ac24c5bdc11eda69fc.pngF5B3FCC7-3366-40DD-9482-20AF629FEC47.thumb.png.c770cea4043369b0757efc80c192de33.png020E205F-6D97-48F8-9FB6-6285C2672D4A.thumb.png.dbc6891630bbdd1282639cfcb0e12e26.png38F5B07D-9CB8-41B0-AD1E-F74E8A1D17D2.thumb.png.91d4aaa756a6ef03db013b2d56e62a40.png4B3F9AF6-F48D-47DC-8CB0-C8C2DBB5C18C.thumb.png.d71856630aabb851c511716640436be6.pngA86DA6CC-F57C-4B22-9CE9-133D36F09B4D.thumb.png.6a0ea0178d894008805ee9f484c31ec4.png2D7E9543-9FF3-40B5-87D8-EBC42B1F95DE.thumb.png.cbc1e54934be48cc3a83269c4344013f.png29903448-E514-4DC3-8EFA-6FABC5323B2A.thumb.png.f529925abcb91d7203e1e434f1543232.png9990E561-E0A4-4C5B-9FC0-D967B4A51649.thumb.png.2ca42d258c6939f4f59e8c237d160530.pngC8F89FE4-EA5E-4DED-A2F4-21200DE0A294.thumb.png.024a3c0012f114b5db1ea7a7e0996be5.pngA26DF71D-BBC3-4505-A1B3-9B31ECE8E824.thumb.png.7c77c6a0bc9373c0116bb1205b3a5f2d.pngF2DE74EE-000D-4AD4-B049-A44E5D25C9AF.thumb.png.c82890f0e7878af6fca3a3c282580aef.png9515BECE-ED12-4980-AD6E-444FBA325CE7.thumb.gif.c196e443044ef3c7914c80e7d4dfb34f.gif

 

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A bit more settled again at day 9 - but we’ve seen that all too often in the last few weeks....before it evaporates into nothing as low pressure ends up closer.
 

Odd that we have so much disagreement at day 6 - as the low is along the jet stream it will depends how in interacts and deepens, and what side it ends up on. UKMO clearly best for the UK.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But the three are so different here, I think we need to refrain from looking further into the runs until this is properly ironed out pre T144.  Big uncertainty once again as to how this pans out beyond the settled weekend.

I think that's a fair comment. This morning's ECM was the reverse to tonight's! Ok up to Day 8/9 then it turned into a horrible run. This time it's horrible earlier on and better by Day 8/9

Edited by LRD
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