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Model output discussion - into July 2020

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Posted (edited)

I have to say, if anyone thinks this evenings output is ok, we're setting the bar a little low...talking of which, July mid month 🤐 (chart below from gfs). Seems to be the case in the west in particular that the more settled spells are forming earlier and earlier in the year..

 

GFSOPEU12_156_1.png

Edited by KTtom
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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Is that good?

Is the jet not running through us on that? Pretty flat from West to East?

Good as in an improvement on conditions experienced in the last couple of weeks and much better compared to the GFS this afternoon, Nothing prolonged but I’d take that now especially IMBY .

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GFS is no great shakes out to day 10 - the S/SE just about keeps out of trouble, but low pressure close enough to disturb things elsewhere. Big ECM coming up tonight I feel.

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Posted (edited)

Strooth judging by some of the posts this evening, I think I need to get me violin out.. 🎻🤣 The GEM looks pretty good, I've not even viewed the GREAT FAIL SYSTEM aka GFS.. Things not looking to bad moving forward if you ask me. Chins up gang.. Head held high.. 😎

Plenty of warmth in the GEM ending.. 

gem-0-96.png

gem-0-120.png

gem-0-144.png

gem-0-168.png

gem-0-192.png

b6798bcd4a97d480a9896a5b51f4f5ef.jpg

gem-0-210.png

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

Edited by MATT☀️
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28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is no great shakes out to day 10 - the S/SE just about keeps out of trouble, but low pressure close enough to disturb things elsewhere. Big ECM coming up tonight I feel.

Even the south / south east isn’t immune to  unsettled weather on this run 😏

285C92B7-1832-4BDD-912D-D21BB4B887FB.png

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If I was offered the GEM 12Z run I bite your hand off for it, GFS is poor and outside of a line rough from the Wash to IOW barely anywhere makes it above 20C all next week.....Hopefully ECM will offer less in the way off north westerly intrusions and go down the ECM route. 

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30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is no great shakes out to day 10 - the S/SE just about keeps out of trouble, but low pressure close enough to disturb things elsewhere. Big ECM coming up tonight I feel.

Big ECM? Why? Bigger than the last ECM? Slightly less small than the next one perhaps? Will the result of this ECM somehow determine the weather for the next few days irrespective of what the other models are showing?

Not getting at you in particular here, it just bugs me when one run from one model is deemed to be 'big' or 'important' when it really makes no difference whatsoever. This happens far too often in the model threads. Remember, the models don't determine the weather, they just offer ideas on some possible outcomes and their reliability decreases the further out they go.

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57 minutes ago, Zak M said:

CFSv2 500hpa anomalies for weeks 1 and 2

wk1.wk2_20200707_z500.thumb.png.df6e6cfcc586931f5c453f65295d1524.png

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

The week two shows a huge high pressure anomaly over us.

Surely, even the CFS can't be that wrong?

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7 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Big ECM? Why? Bigger than the last ECM? Slightly less small than the next one perhaps? Will the result of this ECM somehow determine the weather for the next few days irrespective of what the other models are showing?

Not getting at you in particular here, it just bugs me when one run from one model is deemed to be 'big' or 'important' when it really makes no difference whatsoever. This happens far too often in the model threads. Remember, the models don't determine the weather, they just offer ideas on some possible outcomes and their reliability decreases the further out they go.

Only because it’s the best performing model. So long as it shows a more settled outcome like it has so far in comparison to the GFS, then it’s more positive. In my view anyway. I only use the term big as we’re starting to see some disagreement from what was a unanimous settled picture.

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To me, today's GFS 12Z looks similar to what we've been having: repeated attempts (some successful, some less so) at an Azores ridge... which is, I think, all quite normal for a British summer? I think we all jettisoned any idea of a 2018 redux, a long while ago...:unsure2::oldgrin:

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GFS has for whatever reason peeled away from the pack with the last two runs, by increasing the pace of a low moving near Iceland Mon-Tue such that it merges with another low and sits due N of the UK as a broad feature on Tue instead of to our NW as a smaller low.

This has some immediate impact on surface conditions with the polar boundary further south, before the upstream changes still manage to turn things around but more gradually & unsteadily compared to the 00z for example which is was more akin to the UKMO 12z for Mon-Tue.

ECM 12z will be especially significant with respect to how it handles the eastward pace of that low Mon-Tue & any merger with another low.

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1EAC8060-0700-4E8A-8FF1-A571608AB2A2.thumb.png.2c02a910d452089e350a6814d020b671.pngA65A5B38-0662-4854-85C4-F1A58D5E8F53.thumb.png.12ffb4fd048d99eb34839e3a45a11c76.png
 

GFS vs ECM day 7....much better 👍🏻 

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ECM, shows the settled spell and then the point in question where there is a slight wobble T144:

72A55C82-2AFC-4C8C-ACFE-43D3303C2C01.thumb.gif.1fc9544ed21410b61469c30c3668318a.gif

But looks like bouncing back straight away on T168:

25749D70-F880-4E82-B4F4-52859FAEBF66.thumb.gif.b7ba41889beceda28d974bf402ceb3fb.gif

But the best weather always to the south, no nationwide settled spell here yet.

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3FC830D0-27F5-42C9-BD67-540F89D51D8B.thumb.png.92e9ba6e1fe3f36ad021ddb3ac219401.png
 

We call that a ‘bank it’ chart. Nice!

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Posted (edited)

ECM T192:

B4C4C00B-7AC6-43DC-94DB-0A17337D3A51.thumb.gif.8ebcb9a20c9c8a5e9d515ee2315e5161.gif

And I see no reason from there why the rest of the run won’t be great, for the south and midlands at least.

Edit, no reason apart from the fact that I don’t know what I’m on about!! T216 LOL!!

22977958-4040-44F5-B390-1F3FD5B83B9F.thumb.gif.465344d70e7713b62ac3cc138adb7fa2.gif

Edited by Mike Poole
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JMA a cracker at T192:

AF373E2C-D2AF-46A0-91E0-0979F1476EB4.thumb.gif.121cd68c85b7b88866371884477825dc.gif

Would like to see the end of that run, but I’m not staying up til midnight!

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Yet another ECM that runs down the corridor of uncertainty. Potentially hot for a while in the south, but in the slot for future flattening between D6 and D9. 

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

JMA a cracker at T192:

AF373E2C-D2AF-46A0-91E0-0979F1476EB4.thumb.gif.121cd68c85b7b88866371884477825dc.gif

Would like to see the end of that run, but I’m not staying up til midnight!

You've said that before, I'm sure... 😜

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GEM is quite good also

@240

gem-0-240.thumb.png.3d668e79f6372889d0f73b143b1a967b.png   gem-1-240.thumb.png.f4cf191a2d6fbede3b641f048d81b51d.png

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23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

3FC830D0-27F5-42C9-BD67-540F89D51D8B.thumb.png.92e9ba6e1fe3f36ad021ddb3ac219401.png
 

We call that a ‘bank it’ chart. Nice!

I’ll be banking both the ECM and the GEM landlord, put them behind the bar, I’ll take them home with me. 

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8 minutes ago, Downpour said:

I’ll be banking both the ECM and the GEM landlord, put them behind the bar, I’ll take them home with me. 

The ECM finishes with a Northerly, not sure I would bank that.

Its day 10 chart is a long way from the CFS two weeker,  that's for sure.

 

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39 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM is quite good for the south @168

ECM1-168.gif

Aye, normal Atlantic air setup, my location looks like 18 degrees, cloudy and breezy, hate the NW/SE setup

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, normal Atlantic air setup, my location looks like 18 degrees, cloudy and breezy, hate the NW/SE setup

Why... Are you from Iceland 🤣big ECM mean coming up... Huge could be the biggest ever summer starter or ender ever... Details to follow very shortly.. 😉

Let's call the mean a North South split for argument sake.. Pretty good away from the North.. Big EC46 on Thursday... The biggest since... Well.. The one on Monday... 🤣

EDM1-96.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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