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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run T192:

    D1C5069A-D520-4BB1-9EB0-A4C31C334655.thumb.png.61afef2150a7e435e23b7aecfeceb19f.png

    You’d think from here, there would be an unsettled blip for the north and then a more prolonged period of settled weather for most of us?

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Pub run T192:

    D1C5069A-D520-4BB1-9EB0-A4C31C334655.thumb.png.61afef2150a7e435e23b7aecfeceb19f.png

    You’d think from here, there would be an unsettled blip for the north and then a more prolonged period of settled weather for most of us?

    Is that one of those 2020 unsettled blips that last 2weeks plus 😂😂🙈🙈?

    Have to say again next week looking less than straightforward, looks like our high will quickly slip back south west leaving us under a very week ridge. GFS just about clings on to settled conditions and eventually warms up in the far south east however I suspect anything beyond days 7-8 at the moment needs to be treated with extreme caution. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Ukmo is looking fine with high pressure moving back in again . ( UKMO charts wrong way around )

    5065A7B3-A032-4BA8-9CF1-545462D943B1.gif

    8D9BA6EC-7F44-4AE8-8420-9C9A7A1F7F93.gif
     

    ECM also showing this , Much better than we’ve had recently especially the further south you go .

     

    9EA8DCA8-4227-46E0-9819-670B689E5361.gif

    8A572F5E-C706-4897-8905-8F985372F81B.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
    To put charts in the correct order .
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Has to be said ECM thankfully bucks what I said above and would become mainly warm and settled for most through next week 👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Lovely ecm this morning...slight blip through Tuesday/Wednesday with a front passing through, but settled and fairly warm on the whole.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    A decent ECM 0z operational with plenty of high pressure / ridging from this weekend onwards, apart from the very far north it looks like summer is gradually coming back!..looking at the GEFS 0z there are some very nice members beyond this week, the issue appears to be how far north the high pressure influence gets, it could wax and wane but the rule of thumb is the further south you are, the better it looks!😉

    So...very good signs for high pressure to return (especially for southern u k) but longer term there could be some humid  thundery interludes too...?😜🌩️☀️🔥🙏

    A5A68AD3-1C34-4767-89E1-A547D3C051A2.thumb.gif.448f39bf98ecc124bdf54d804080b66a.gifA7807922-A751-4EED-864B-D871D76CA7F6.thumb.png.debf2586b8561fb053a637667b2f8a12.png13487A5B-7FD6-4FA5-88A8-18B5A2FBFB4F.thumb.png.07a18abb0d794236b245716f84d0547c.png4F9DAE5C-05AB-46FC-A18F-88A40C8AC51D.thumb.png.166a0e723ff3f0fea81c12a35d61cbc0.png325AD238-F925-4C2F-B6B9-5B8F45A3EABD.thumb.png.21befa37c025a956a4624c3f0583ebeb.png3E18F364-43A1-48F6-BF94-B159AA838F4D.thumb.png.07e109ed6dafa81d671fe0f92950a51f.pngFF661D15-40E0-4F32-8326-F42F19B7E096.thumb.png.cc6b266eeb3d3bd61be89df8bf50afae.pngFC95AD5D-E945-44BF-98D4-070A2A0F5FA4.thumb.png.d6a4505730481395533b4c09cd6f3cc4.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    Lovely ecm this morning...slight blip through Tuesday/Wednesday with a front passing through, but settled and fairly warm on the whole.

    Looks extremely short lived and after that heights start to build in again over greenland

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    Looks extremely short lived and after that heights start to build in again over greenland

    I wouldn’t worry about that for now....if people were expecting 2 weeks of wall to wall sunshine then of course they might be disappointed! As it is, a good week or so of decent summery weather on the whole will be most welcome after the cloud, wind and rain of the last fortnight!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good day, folks, from another who's had a couple of days' not model watching!:hi:

    The GFS 00Z looks okay this morning; a nice, settled spell after what's been some very welcome rain:🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And there're nae too many nasties hiding in the ens woodshed, either:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles also looking decent -- with no signs of any imminent pressure-rises over Greenland::oldgood:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    What could possibly go wrong!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    An update on what the anoamly charts are suggesting

    Wednesday 8 July

    Changes in ec-gfs but not noaa, see below,ec-gfs have changed the+ve heights; ec has them slight only but over the uk, gfs has dropped them altogether, both showing an atlantic flow, not strong away from the nw.

    Noaa continues with its idea of slight +ve heights over northern uk, with a suggestion of a ridge a bit further ne of this centre, a marked trough well west in the atlantic which is further east than over the last 2 days

    I tend to think it will be nearer the mark than the other two simply because it is quite consistent over the last 3 days or so.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    EB7C5396-100A-4144-A374-761DF6EDAE3A.thumb.png.9e0d582dc20858c6eab183f8a1cb563d.png5BC2012C-7BF8-4400-874C-E4E1C181E8F7.thumb.gif.0f7c31746cd7fcec77ac6f97cfcaa2f2.gif

    GFS definitely starting to trend ‘less settled’ now, with only the weekend having high pressure dominating. Certainly less positive than 24-48 hours ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Peoples I am instigating an urgent personal review of the ECM ensembles!!

    I am aware that they underwent an upgrade on 30th June. Sometimes upgrades lead to big improvements, but sometimes little problems sneak in.

    I have concerns having compared this T192 ensemble mean chart

    EDM1-192.GIF?00

    with this T120 ensemble mean chart (from this morning)

    EDM1-120.GIF?08-12

    It really has not been normal for the 1015mb line to be that wrong at T192 - it's moved from northern Iceland to northern Scotland!! 

    This type of correction has happened three times in the past 10 days alone (not to this extent).

    I'm putting my confidence in the ECM mean on hold for a little while. A shame because it has rarely let me down too badly over the years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    EB7C5396-100A-4144-A374-761DF6EDAE3A.thumb.png.9e0d582dc20858c6eab183f8a1cb563d.png5BC2012C-7BF8-4400-874C-E4E1C181E8F7.thumb.gif.0f7c31746cd7fcec77ac6f97cfcaa2f2.gif

    GFS definitely starting to trend ‘less settled’ now, with only the weekend having high pressure dominating. Certainly less positive than 24-48 hours ago.

    Horros show of a GFS 6z. Only consolation is that it's the GFS 6z.

    Little sign of Summer proper. 

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS 06Z definitely showing much more unsettled conditions into next week now, low pressure now dominating over the north of the country by the middle of next week. While its currently no washout in the south looks pretty cloudy and again more than a couple of average day temp wise and some decent sunny spells is looking a push. At the moment any real warmup again looks a good 8days away at least bar maybe an isolated warm day for the extreme south east on Sunday. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    6z will almost certainly be an unsettled outlier - but the ECM op is by no means the only solution on the clusters this morning, there are plenty that bring low pressure closer. Crunch time. If the door slams shut here then it could be a wait once again.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Peoples I am instigating an urgent personal review of the ECM ensembles!!

    I am aware that they underwent an upgrade on 30th June. Sometimes upgrades lead to big improvements, but sometimes little problems sneak in.

    I have concerns having compared this T192 ensemble mean chart

    EDM1-192.GIF?00

    with this T120 ensemble mean chart (from this morning)

    EDM1-120.GIF?08-12

    It really has not been normal for the 1015mb line to be that wrong at T192 - it's moved from northern Iceland to northern Scotland!! 

    This type of correction has happened three times in the past 10 days alone (not to this extent).

    I'm putting my confidence in the ECM mean on hold for a little while. A shame because it has rarely let me down too badly over the years.

    But are they they not issued 3 days apart? Maybe I'm misunderstanding but if the issue time is 3 days apart and at that time scale why not?

    Like I say I may be mis reading your post so apologies if I am

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    6z will almost certainly be an unsettled outlier - but the ECM op is by no means the only solution on the clusters this morning, there are plenty that bring low pressure closer. Crunch time. If the door slams shut here then it could be a wait once again.

    Its a bit of an outlier through the middle of next week not massively so and the overall 850 ensembles are much cooler, the mean now doesn't get above average here until the 18th whereas 24hrs ago by Tuesday it was 2c above average for the following 5-6days...

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    56 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    But are they they not issued 3 days apart? Maybe I'm misunderstanding but if the issue time is 3 days apart and at that time scale why not?

    Like I say I may be mis reading your post so apologies if I am

    Yes this doesn't seem like such an unreasonable correction from a t192 chart...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A fairly sudden collapse into scatter following July 14, within the GEFS 06Z ens; apart from things becoming more uncertain, I can only guess at what it means... Something in terms of tropical-storm activity, perhaps?:unsure2:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    But, whatever it is (run-of-the-mill, inter-run NWP-variance?) I shan't be losing any sleep over it. Nor, shall I be writing-off the entire month of August!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    UKMO still looking good this afternoon. .

    CA74AAA2-7526-4DA6-897F-3223C5BE6EDC.gif

    4406459A-10DC-4009-A425-1B653F3E75A2.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean I’m thinking basically it’s going to be a north / south split with the best chance of fine weather from ridging / high pressure further s / se and lower heights to the NW / N keeping northern / northwestern u k more unsettled than further south and generally cooler or much cooler...however, there is some very warm / hot potential here and there in various timeframes so here’s a bit of eye candy for the vast majority who want our summer back!!.fingers crossed for the 12z!!!!😜 🍒 

    FC47E23C-4C9D-4BF0-A27F-8F8D15FF9753.thumb.gif.6ce17d50e2a6a695eafbe1ca330e19e9.gifYes I have a drinking problem:drunk:ECA640CD-271B-4170-B9D8-16E38AF2E4EA.thumb.png.4af976019b08736688ccb4050c95071d.png084E174F-4E80-4EF2-BE97-BD38B8AB8255.thumb.png.a300d676aa37bf15cf11aeb6b53c1c26.png971C22FC-F884-4E21-844D-3C154C6E0221.thumb.png.157574ceaccafb88bdfb7a4239894642.pngB4F27DE9-A68F-47B7-92BB-496F357AE1F7.thumb.png.d6cea2811316dee3b45cd2a2f6b0b6bb.png7746987A-80DF-458C-BFB7-064FA37665D1.thumb.png.3f7b6c9b279c9750be5ed694b0fa28f5.pngFAD053CA-1A91-4C24-8EBC-BB51EC6DC24B.thumb.png.f3538fe44dba1e0f814a31139cc1816d.pngA4F47F61-EC54-4259-85C1-45DD7ABA1A65.thumb.png.a4e7eaa4870cfa3b587b8e53a33178c2.png75924DE5-1F02-444A-A436-99D96F1DCE91.thumb.png.0dd10d05714f9bdf2b56db8d81b4f2fc.png2F3F45FE-A873-4018-9999-76C9781F7A47.thumb.png.2d7f550ac635e658325997d840d0a954.png

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKMO looks ok this evening. GFS turning unsettled on Monday with some rain in places as a trough passes through. It’s also there on the UKMO run but less pronounced.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    UKMO still looking good this afternoon. .

    CA74AAA2-7526-4DA6-897F-3223C5BE6EDC.gif

    4406459A-10DC-4009-A425-1B653F3E75A2.gif

    Is that good?

    Is the jet not running through us on that? Pretty flat from West to East?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Seems to have been the story of the summer. Unsettled spell looks like coming to an end, with the promise of some very good charts, which then get watered down to average.

    The 12z so far are OK - but nothing more.

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