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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    34 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    There was talk recently of the usefulness of continuity analysis and this is one of those very good opportunities to put it into practice to measure progress.

    NWP is back on the trail of suggesting an eastward adjustment of the pattern, the interpretation of that being that the troublesome low frequency tropical signal that roots the unfavourable downstream pattern of Atlantic ridge and overspreading trough is being, at least temporarily, masked by  some influence from the cyclical high frequency MJO signal. . Still room for this to muddy the water a little, but a reasonable chance now of at least a break in the tedium that has been evident since the end of June

    Overall, the message is still the same one as before:   Better to not expect long settled spells, but reasonable to continue to expect interruptions to tedium, and within the much more restrictive (to NW Europe fine weather spells) macro hemisphere scale wind-flow regime that has taken over since the Spring

    The QBO database has been updated and shows that June continued the stuttering evolution of the easterly downwelling phase. 

    Worth repeating yet again, that whilst this summer is not proving a classic, the eccentric nature of the QBO has saved NW European weather from a worse fate such as seen in 2007. The QBO database has updated and shows that June continued, and even reversed further slightly the stuttering evolution of the easterly downwelling phase.

     2020 Jan -2.51 Feb  -3.20 Mar -4.36 Apr -5.03  May -4.86 June -2.78  (to date)

     

    QBO Calculated at NOAA PSL 30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average For info https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/ units=ms-1

    https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

     

    Compare that to 2007

    2007 Jan +2.61  Feb +2.43  Mar + 1.24   Apr -5.18  May -14.06  June -21.33  > (July -24.92  Aug-27.41  Sept-28.13  Oct -29.05  Nov-27.61  Dec-19.48)

    Very robust and rapid downwelling of -ve zonal easterly winds stratospherically generating the anomalous strong heights across the arctic that summer, at the same time as augmenting the strong La Nina influence on the tropospheric pattern

    The nature of this relationship will be important for the remainder of the summer, and also have implications for the season(s) to follow in terms of how the weather patterns play out - bearing in mind the longer term continued likelihood of a La Nina-esque circulation adopted to the atmosphere, and relating to how the downstream wavelength is configured accordingly

     

    I've seen a few recent tweets about the QBO and the lower bunch of easterlies. Was wondering what your thoughts are since the normal values are 10-50hpa.

     

     

     

     

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...👸 Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Am I correct in saying these - AAM sequences lead to amplified ridge and trough patterns around the Globe. I think we had such an event around Summer 2018..and did we not see ridging become more prevalent as the summer progressed. 

    14jun18_aam22a-387x300.gif

    14jun18_aam22.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Decent Icon at least for the Weekend and early next week, also warming up slowly but surely. 

    icon-0-120.png

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    icon-0-168.png

    icon-0-180.png

    icon-1-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ICON is very good!

    @180

    icon-0-180.thumb.png.19d44434bdda1483416de26e5e6b05f6.png   icon-1-180.thumb.png.68a44c4710b845ca400a390b6822f05f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Ukmo looks good to me . 

    B6E482A7-1086-45DE-906D-8D6EA1444E2E.gif

    3113A693-2E75-442C-B191-69A07CA8EA41.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    A39CEB02-D107-45D5-8D0E-BE7FEE0F44D1.thumb.png.9080adad0cd29ef2541b0249b6daf277.png

    Sunday looking like the first properly decent day for quite a while.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Gfs looks okay too at 144 before a slightly breezy low brews in the Atlantic later on . 

    B9C7117F-E090-4A4E-B21A-E6DCF63EF619.png

    A090B5A3-C314-4BFB-B959-2DA4DDDD66B9.png

     

    8A167470-0BD0-46BA-BC07-24229C176A56.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS 12z unfolding right now and looks like high pressure will this weekend give us a break in this current unsettled pattern but enjoy it while it lasts as it looks like a blip with another huge dose of Autumn on its way in off the Atlantic for about two weeks at max.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Seems a positive sets of output this evening, most importantly I think the UKMO at T+144 looks much stronger than this mornings output. ICON, GEM, GFS and OKMO all have a solid looking High at 1025-27mb over the UK by Sunday lunchtime. As others have said looks as though we'll probably have four decent days and even the usually under-egging of GFS suggesting temps of 24-25C in the south east by the end of the weekend despite less than impressive uppers (25C is decent going from 6/7C 850s). All sorts of possibilities from midweek onwards but let hope we can cling on to something similar to the GFS Ops run which introduces temps back up into the 30's in two weeks time. Surely the GFS Ops run will be an outlier towards the end.....

     

    GFSOPUK12_336_48.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    12 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    GFS 12z unfolding right now and looks like high pressure will this weekend give us a break in this current unsettled pattern but enjoy it while it lasts as it looks like a blip with another huge dose of Autumn on its way in off the Atlantic for about two weeks at max.  

    Let's get the HP in first - no idea what will happen next week, and I suspect nobody else does!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z looks really good...So, will it verify, or has it simply 'gone off on one'? I'm guessing, the latter!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Ah Gem You little Beauty ??. No blow torch but I’d take this now please.

     

     

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    8F5C5E53-91D7-4E26-B54B-435755943909.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    And the Mighty Navgem has woken from its hibernation of the past few days and delivered a beauty of a run too .  Good set of 12z runs this afternoon / evening.

    B6E26331-FAD5-496E-9E28-0D8EB5B8F19C.png

    6D2E2CBD-374D-442E-9F7F-0828593C5314.png

    9D6AD8CE-6C65-4533-9118-5B7757AD1D03.png

    46777E24-33F8-48D5-AF03-22D9CC372A0D.gif

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well whaddayouknow... a preety good set of GEFS ensembles::yahoo:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    Ooh. Aaah: image.thumb.png.831d58420a972d9d5ca3e7a0fa5ddccc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Nice 12z ECM

    @144

    ECM1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Sunday's not looking too shoddy at this point.  Although on the face of it the uppers aren't that impressive, it should be feeling plenty warm enough in any sunshine with the slack winds.

    image.thumb.png.c31e0b54637b7d213888434cd521dd5a.png  image.thumb.png.0927c7b8aa8596ecd5916dd516540e9d.png

    The 168 keeps things settled and warm, certainly the further south you are:

    image.thumb.png.e51a92e9e55abe3bd420ba9d2026ad5f.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    2F4BB1D8-D368-4345-97A4-8931B9690EE0.thumb.jpeg.7d45349c380f98e6eaf7df55683a3054.jpeg1AF5922A-7367-4BC5-9623-A4339D26530C.thumb.jpeg.26908e78be1ec4880a1898e6456c417a.jpeg

    ECM drops that pesky upper trough in at day 7 and 8 turning it cooler and showery once more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Voila!

    @216

    ECM1-216.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    941A0120-55D7-4913-A201-E1301977CA59.thumb.jpeg.5a55d73c1146c8e19d176b1ec0c2834b.jpeg

     

    Upper trough dropping down to Iberia much like GEM which reinflates the high. Could be good ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Beautiful ending to the 12z ECM!

    @240

    ECM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    At 240 (just for fun of course), not bad at all.  

    image.thumb.png.68012dfdb22f597dd0b18a292dd163df.png

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