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Model output discussion - into July 2020


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Hopefully we will see a better spell of weather as GFS op depicts.

    Goodness knows we could do with it up here,it's been thoroughly horrible this last 10 days or so..

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    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...ūüĎł Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed¬†suspicious¬†the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    The GFS 12Z Ops run is a bit of warm outlier at times but within the pack, after the lows this week its takes an absolute age to get the mean 850s back to average. Could really do with an extended period of them being above average, still that sort of thing is a long way off. 

     

    gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n 0507.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The high is starting to budge in on the 12z ECM

    @144

    ECM1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Settled still @216 but not too hot

    ECM1-216.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC is mainly settled but one gets the feeling our latitude is vunerable to troughs...

    Still,a less cyclonic outlook beckons..

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    This ECM 240 chart has caught my eye...

    ecm240.thumb.png.592273994f8cc745497c90df673d0af6.png

    ECM only goes to 240 so we can't see beyond that, but that looks like a cut-off low developing.

    If so, this would act as a trigger for bringing up very warm or even hot air from Spain.

    It probably won't happen but it's quite interesting nonetheless...

    Always worth looking for these things ? and the Atlantic low following behind may help! 

    Despite very fine weather on yet another op run, unusually for July the models aren't warming things up that quickly. Starting low 20s next weekend, slowly picking up to mid 20s at the start of the following week, I'm guessing perhaps a 27C by Tuesday / Wednesday. Usually with a static high in July you'd be thinking of 30C within a few days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models showing high pressure back on the scene by this time next week, as a ridge develops and creates a cell over the UK. No heatwave as the ridge is building in relatively cool air, no injection of any warm uppers.

    Into mid July, possibility we may hold onto fine warmer conditions, much dependent on how strong any heights over the UK become and where they end up. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Clusters D8 - ridging tendency over UK, little Atlantic threat at this point 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070512_192.

    By D10 the Atlantic is trying to build back but far from clear if this will be successful 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020070512_240.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This morning's GFS 00Z isn't too bad, and really hits the spot at T+168; thereafter, however, things don't look very straightforward at all:?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

    NH profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Even before we get to the weekend there's considerable differences in how GFS & ECM handle the back end of this week. GFS keeps a tighter, deeper low and the associated frontal activity stays further north while ECM goes with an open wave that brining more precipitation into the south, to make it more complicated ICON backs ECM and the open wave while GEM seems to go with GFS and the tighter, deeper low option. 

    Positively though they all seems to end up in the same situation with a 1025mb high plonked over the top of the UK by Saturday. UKMO seems to be the odd one out and fails to build high pressure as strongly which could clearly lead to trouble further down the line. The GFS Ops run quickly becomes unsettled by day 8/9 as high pressure east and west regress away from the UK, this would be desperately bad luck and leave a trough forming in situ over head, fortunately only a couple of the ensembles go for this option and the control run and most of the ensembles are much, much warmer and more settled. Have say though having just seem the full ECM run it quickly becomes very disappointing as pressure fades away very quickly and lets the door open to the Atlantic. 

    All in all a very mixed bag this morning with the only consensus being high pressure over the UK for days 6 & 7 with uncertainty both before and afterwards..... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    In this sequence from the GFS the pesky jet stream seems to give the UK a break around the 11th July:

    8A0721D0-8993-4402-BDB1-616A5D711A61.thumb.gif.f42fc3d8d638181ad4581f1c064de302.gif

    .....but then it’s back again with a vengeance for the following week....

    1019DCD0-9BC8-4065-91C2-3332FFDC995A.thumb.gif.7560e568143cb122e78555298894c285.gif

    Not favourable for settled weather, I’d guess.   There needs to be something of a change in this pattern in the next couple of weeks to bring us a really warm, dry and settled two or three week spell of proper mid-summer weather before we begin talking about Autumn... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Disappointing ECM op.

    Brief ridge for the weekend then the Atlantic back in control. Hopefully an outlier.

    .

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Update with the 500 mb anomaly charts. No real help from them at all in my view.

    Monday 7 July

    Less confidence this morning again, ec-gfs have differing looking charts from one another and no consistency from day to day. However gfs does keep height rises ne of uk and across towards Iceland/Greenland.

    Much the same can be said of noaa as it has in 24 hours developed a ridge and considerable +ve heights just wnw of the uk.

    In these situations the 500 mb charts offer no forecast skill so a waiting game. If anything the idea of European heights seems less likely than heights/ridging wnw/nw or even over the uk! It will be ironic if gfs ends up being closest to what the actual charts show 6-10 day ahead.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    34 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Disappointing ECM op.

    Brief ridge for the weekend then the Atlantic back in control. Hopefully an outlier.

    .

    image.thumb.png.bc2e781b1ad8f911804c930b335bcf3e.pngimage.thumb.png.4a0d90eec63dbfffc136397ac5043a3e.png

    A little bit at the end, but on the whole it's a good ensemble match. Bit worrying, looks like it could collapse away very quickly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The Euro and GFS both demonstrate different ways of doing it (the Euro just dissolves the high while the GFS has it absorbed by one over north west Russia) but the net result is the same with our settled spell essentially reduced to a 3 day affair at days 5-8. 

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    The Euro and GFS both demonstrate different ways of doing it (the Euro just dissolves the high while the GFS has it absorbed by one over north west Russia) but the net result is the same with our settled spell essentially reduced to a 3 day affair at days 5-8. 

    spacer.png

     

    Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick though, eh?

    Be grateful for whatever fine weather we can get.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    This isn't bad at all from the 06z GFS...

    @162

    gfseuw-0-162.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    This isn't bad at all from the 12z GFS...

    @162

    gfseuw-0-162.png

    I always said you was to over keen young man... The 12z doesn't run for another 4 hrs Zak... Patience my man... ?The 6Z mean is looking pretty decent out to day 9..‚ėÄÔłŹ?

    gens-21-1-120.png

    gens-21-1-144.png

    gens-21-1-168.png

    gens-21-1-192.png

    gens-21-1-216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    Just now, MATT‚ėÄÔłŹ said:

    I always said you was to over keen young man... The 12z doesn't run for another 4 hrs Zak... Patience my man... ?The 6Z mean is looking pretty decent out to day 9..‚ėÄÔłŹ?

    gens-21-1-120.png

    gens-21-1-144.png

    gens-21-1-168.png

    gens-21-1-192.png

    gens-21-1-216.png

    I didn't get too much sleep last night so I'm not surprised I made that mistake ?

    But yeah, the GFS is looking good, on day 11 especially. Hopefully it will be a sign of things to come...

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