Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into July 2020


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
    3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

    Oh my the 18z has ended the run on a warm note

    Come back in the morning and it will be gone again. I don't think I need to explain why. because that's what always happens.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    ...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...ūüĎł Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed¬†suspicious¬†the way it had reverted to extrapolating the defaul

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday

    EC

    overview_20200705_00_090.thumb.jpg.13711e528ebd01f6716dbf49c271249c.jpg

    GFS

    436697269_overview_20200705_00_090(1).thumb.jpg.3097195a75e978ad87dcb69ac5e50338.jpg

    No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    52 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Huge differences between GFS and other models at such short range as early as Wednesday

    EC

    overview_20200705_00_090.thumb.jpg.13711e528ebd01f6716dbf49c271249c.jpg

    GFS

    436697269_overview_20200705_00_090(1).thumb.jpg.3097195a75e978ad87dcb69ac5e50338.jpg

    No other model has that deep low NW of Ireland on Wednesday

    That’ll be the remnants of TD5 that @Alexis kindly told me last night that I didn’t know what I was talking about. ?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    That’ll be the remnants of TD5 that @Alexis kindly told me last night that I didn’t know what I was talking about. ?

    On a brighter note the 00z runs look reasonably promising...

    ?

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Looking at ECM ensembles, confidence in the proposed UK high is extremely high this morning - 48 out of 51 of members have high pressure slap bang over the UK by D8 - that's impressive! 

    Lots of scatter by D12 but still quite a lot of blocks somewhere near the UK. 

     

    Very low spread on that upper ridge .....but what follows is presumably likely to be more of the same with upper lows surfing the pulses of the Azores ridge ...  single cluster on the eps yesterday adds to the uncertainty though so just maybe .......

    Edited by bluearmy
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Overall, decent overnight runs.  I'm liking the ECM as it makes much less of Fridays low when compared to the GFS

    image.thumb.png.8c7abe9ab9889978fc954385d7c4d378.pngimage.thumb.png.7a22aaa1dfae5777115e87a9427f1442.png  

    However, thereafter both models go on to show much better conditions from next weekend with the GFS keeping things warm and settled, for most areas, out into deep FI.  MWB's post above regarding the clusters adds weight to the idea the we're looking at some good weather just around the corner. ?

    Let's see what the 6z has to say?!

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    So 6z continues to advertise an improvement mid term,the question being how improved and for how long.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    I have to give another view on the charts from the synoptic models and the positive post from MWB as the charts I use do not have such a strong signal and indeed have no consistency with one another or(with ec-gfs) from one day to the next.

    Sunday 5 July

    Update to day, ec-gfs show quite a change to the charts above,(not shown here) ec especially that previously had no indication of height rises over nw Europe, gfs showed slight. Now both indicate this happening, and it is quite a change even from what they had yesterday. So some caution required. The chart gfs now favours has the +ve heights not in Europe but over the uk and nw.

    Noaa does not show this marked change and continues with its broad westerly across the atlantic into w’ern Europe, now with that trough more marked. No indication of any height rises over w Europe, with just a very small +ve height just sw of Iceland.

    So I am not yet convinced that we are about to see a major change in upper air wavelengths, and a more suitable flow for a spell/period of upper and surface ridging. Until all 3 show a good degree of agreement then it is not often that the synoptic pattern currently showing trumps the anomaly charts.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    Those charts still showing the ridge to the W/NW John with the upper flow more W/NW! Also heights looking strong in the pole region with very decent conditions across the Eastern Seaboard.. Have I got the right idea there? 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    The 6Z mean also showing a very decent spell of conditions come next Weekend and beyond, so let's see how this plays out as the noaa charts still not really on board.. That mean does look lush though. 

    gens-21-1-120.png

    gens-21-1-144.png

    gens-21-1-168.png

    gens-21-1-192.png

    gens-21-1-228.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    The GFS ensembles seem to agree with a more settled spell from around the 10th...just look at those rainfall spikes over that 5 or 6 day period.. Its drier than a camels backside on a desert run. Exeter also highlighting more settled towards the West come next weekend then a N/S split with more settled the more favourable outcome but with low confidence. Be interesting to see the EC weeklies on Monday.. 

    graphe4_1000_265_103___.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Well in near term midweek has downgraded substantially for southern parts a band of rain for all tracking SE on Wednesday, more rain for S/SE parts on Thursday courtesy of shortwave and possibly Friday too.

    3CBD2CF4-56E1-44BB-B3D7-CBF78818D6DB.thumb.png.f32da0d73b8867a8aafba4bd7cef59b8.png4B5526B0-32BE-45AD-83B9-24E17659DE37.thumb.png.f0b7272fde5cb5acc13dbbe1383b50a1.png
    CECD59A6-2029-4836-AD88-54169E8A66FF.thumb.png.286ade9b070b29296fe26a35fea00421.png1121EB31-9B48-4D8A-B330-89F427CF7550.thumb.png.0fb1f4a807f43c66f3b6a3ddfbc90cc9.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Gfs and Ukmo at 144 , it’s ok especially the GFS but I’d prefer it to be the other way around .

    4509DC53-2638-42E2-B6FA-8501B2FF9F97.png

    81E750C7-DC6D-4117-8170-99AC8C4AE3FE.gif

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    Well in near term midweek has downgraded substantially for southern parts a band of rain for all tracking SE on Wednesday, more rain for S/SE parts on Thursday courtesy of shortwave and possibly Friday too.

    3CBD2CF4-56E1-44BB-B3D7-CBF78818D6DB.thumb.png.f32da0d73b8867a8aafba4bd7cef59b8.png4B5526B0-32BE-45AD-83B9-24E17659DE37.thumb.png.f0b7272fde5cb5acc13dbbe1383b50a1.png
    CECD59A6-2029-4836-AD88-54169E8A66FF.thumb.png.286ade9b070b29296fe26a35fea00421.png1121EB31-9B48-4D8A-B330-89F427CF7550.thumb.png.0fb1f4a807f43c66f3b6a3ddfbc90cc9.png

    Its rare to see a forecast in summer so far below average for so long, 3-6C below for another 9 days given the average is pretty much 24C there. The back end of the week as you rightly point out looks really quite poor in places, somewhere is likely to pick up some really low maxima if the fronts are timed through the daytime (which off course they ALWAYS are). At least the start of the so called improvement does appear to be inside 7days now, lets hope it stays that way. Lets hope that remains consistent on the 12z's.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Its rare to see a forecast in summer so far below average for so long, 3-6C below for another 9 days given the average is pretty much 24C there.

    Saturday morning looks to be rather chilly countrywide. Very light winds and cool aloft unusually low minima could be seen, cooler than what this depicts. 

    2FEB9427-FE6D-40B1-B9C0-14CC17152ECD.thumb.png.838ba37446de6eccadccb2d7a311bcd3.pngBD755E88-1551-4528-B3E1-931E63B27B08.thumb.png.993b23e7c301e7fb648ed6daaf3ec238.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Fortunately GFS 12z makes a little less of low pressure towards the end of the week, and still looks to settle things down in through next weekend, there's a fair old 'cool' pool left in the wake of the low during Friday so it'll take several days to warm up by which GFS looks to have the Atlantic knocking on the door again....

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Fortunately GFS 12z makes a little less of low pressure towards the end of the week, and still looks to settle things down in through next weekend, there's a fair old 'cool' pool left in the wake of the low during Friday so it'll take several days to warm up by which GFS looks to have the Atlantic knocking on the door again....

    Aye, this has slate grey (midlands) written all over it, anticyclonic gloom

    h850t850eu.png

     

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GFS actuals holds of the Atlantic and the week of the 13th looks pretty pleasant and warming into the mid 20's. Would absolutely take that as got two rounds of golf on the 16th & 17th. 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Lovely GFS 12Z...

    Settles down nicely and gets really warm ...

    Lovely,but a little too far out to be trusted.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...