Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Latest ecm ensembles 

Ouch - that’s a kick in the clangers. It’s one thing when gfs throws a paddy but ECM with all its toys miles out the pram.....Hats and scarfs next weekend.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Guest

[matt111]

27°C at midnight

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Ouch - that’s a kick in the clangers. It’s one thing when gfs throws a paddy but ECM with all its toys miles out the pram.....Hats and scarfs next weekend.

Very much at odds with the NOAA. Which supports HP to our south / east, so no idea why it’s produced this scenario.

Again, I wouldn’t trust anything past Monday - all this hot air and interaction with troughs will affect the output longer term.

GFS ensembles looking hot through next week. Yes, I know, it’s GFS . . . - but shows that other outcomes are on the table.

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, matt111 said:

27°C at midnight

Definately wouldn't be out of place in somewhere like Spain!

Exceptionally hot night coming up there, given the uppers remain warm, if we do get any cloud cover coming over in the evening, could make a run for warmest ever min.

[NApplewhite]

3 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Upper 850s for Manchester are shooting for 20C once more 

Most weather apps are only going for 20 degrees on Saturday onwards! How can they ignore the Upper 850s! i dont understand. Sites like Accuweather always seem to massively understate or underpredict future temps1

 

[NApplewhite]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Definately wouldn't be out of place in somewhere like Spain!

Exceptionally hot night coming up there, given the uppers remain warm, if we do get any cloud cover coming over in the evening, could make a run for warmest ever min.

27 overnight in London only 16 here in Wrexham. Im only 161 miles from the capital

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

27°C at midnight

Any upgrades to friday/saturday temps?

[matt111]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Any upgrades to friday/saturday temps?

Not much change on Friday. The 18z doesn't go out as far as Saturday daytime

 

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well I've watched the latest Met Office's lastest take on what the models are currently saying... and it's Phew, what a Scorcher: 

But anyway, do any of the main models disagree with this?

For Wales we are facing a warm day on Friday then its game over. If the ECMWF medium range is to believe i will have the central heating on here and my hat gloves scarves and tights on to keep warm next Friday as we shiver up North

[NApplewhite]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any upgrades to friday/saturday temps?

no upgrades at all. Look - this time last week they were predicting the whole of England and Wales were going to enjoy exceptionally how temperatures. Now its just the SE of england as usual while us in Wales are stuck with average summer temperatures and a "one day wonder" - not me its the met office saying this. Gutted is the word! We need a massive shift of 300 miles to the west of the warm air to bring Wales into the heat. 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Very much at odds with the NOAA. Which supports HP to our south / east, so no idea why it’s produced this scenario.

Again, I wouldn’t trust anything past Monday - all this hot air and interaction with troughs will affect the output longer term.

GFS ensembles looking hot through next week. Yes, I know, it’s GFS . . . - but shows that other outcomes are on the table.

Pot and kettle backing GFS  

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Maximums we could expect based on ECM 12z

Fri 36

Sat 35

Sun 33

Mon 34

Tue 36

Wed 36

Other models and runs may differ!

Apologies - Wednesday was wrong, I was looking at 00Z charts. More like 29C. I'm camping and my signal is dire

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Not much change on Friday. The 18z doesn't go out as far as Saturday daytime

 

Again that’s pushed the heat east on the basis cloud rapidly encroaches through western areas....maxes way down here now

Edited August 5, 2020 by Guest

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Pot and kettle backing GFS  

Not backing any model as they are all equally useless beyond the reliable. Just saying what it’s showing. It’ll probably be a blend - it usually is.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Djdazzle

[SMU]

So after all the gnashing of teeth about it turning a lot colder here in the capitol sat - Met office forecasting a rapid drop to 35c that day.

So with 37c during the day & Around 21-22c overnight we are not far off a daily CET of 30c !!!

In that one day if the CET up to the 6th was 17c by the end of the full day it would be uo to 18.8c.

Again if we are at 17c for Day 6 to get to 20c for day 8 we would need 58c over 2 days = 29c per day.

So we will probably hit 20c Sun / Mon...

Edited August 5, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not backing any model as they are all equally useless beyond the reliable. Just saying what it’s showing. It’ll probably be a blend - it usually is.

I know, I’m just grump, drizzle is so heavy now it’s like November out there....

[Daniel*]

32 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

27 overnight in London only 16 here in Wrexham. Im only 161 miles from the capital

You may as well be on another planet you should know this by now. Wales is not joining in with heat as is much of UK the very warm to hot temps are confined to S/SE England. Friday the most widespread day. Elsewhere the temps will be an improvement on much of July, while being quite close to average. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Daniel*

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I know, I’m just grump, drizzle is so heavy now it’s like November out there....

Not as cold hopefully!

i still reckon you’ll do better on Friday with the cloud.

[kold weather]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Again that’s pushed the heat east on the basis cloud rapidly encroaches through western areas....maxes way down here now

Probably not a bad shout but this is going to very much be a nowcast situation. I'd guess Hampshire and maybe E.Dorset may even now be seeing quite large spreads on the models based on exactly how quickly the cloud cover comes over from the west. Saturday may well be warmer for some of us down there.

Still it is another run showing a max of 36c in London. This is starting to enter into the range of the high resolution models now (such as AROME, etc) so we should get a good idea of hotspot temperature.

Edited August 5, 2020 by kold weather

[MKN]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So after all the gnashing of teeth about it turning a lot colder here in the capitol sat - Met office forecasting a rapid drop to 35c that day.

So with 37c during the day & Around 21-22c overnight we are not far off a daily CET of 30c !!!

In that one day if the CET up to the 6th was 17c by the end of the full day it would be uo to 18.8c.

Again if we are at 17c for Day 6 to get to 20c for day 8 we would need 58c over 2 days = 29c per day.

So we will probably hit 20c Sun / Mon...

Seems to be a bit of imbyism with regards to people gnashing teeth. If you're further north or closer to the atlantic you're temps tend to be lower as should your expectations. Multiple days of 30c+ there is like asking for multiple days of lying snow in london during winter. Its unlikely and even when shown at 7-10 days out often ends up being the usual suspects if any that see it. Similarly with hot weather and the midlands and south and East there of.  

As for this current upcoming spell it seems very good overall and even though not scorching hot for everyone 23-25c temps are still very pleasant. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by MKN

[Mark wheeler]

Steady as she goes on 18z after 6 hours .

[summer blizzard]

Euro joins GFS in dumping the heat for Wednesday. I would say that Saturday and Sunday look most likely to overperform if any. Higher pressure but 15c+ uppers may allow for higher lapse rates.

Thankfully here in the north it's hot but nothing special, very much a southern hot spell for the most part.

[kold weather]

Worth watching Friday night in particular, most models are keeping London very wamr overnight, even the GFS operational run at 12z had 24c in W.London and that isn't the warmest daytime run by any means.

The record for highest min is 23.9c set during 1990 in the August heatwave.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run time, but I’m posting the 18z ICON, here T78:

And T120:

Think I have got this post right now!!!!!

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not as cold hopefully!

i still reckon you’ll do better on Friday with the cloud.

18c/17dp seen that in late October in the evening though....