Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Guest]

Hmmm ECM, nimby perspective Its cloudfest Friday but then looks good for three or four days before it’s uppers drop 10c lower the GFS & ECM. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Guest

[Daniel]

Will be very interesting to see where ecm sits with its ensembles. Got a feeling it gets rid of the heat to quickly but we will see 

[Guest]

Just now, Daniel said:

Will be very interesting to see where ecm sits with its ensembles. Got a feeling it gets rid of the heat to quickly but we will see 

It can never be simple, ECM being the party Pooper is never a good sign....

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Will be very interesting to see where ecm sits with its ensembles. Got a feeling it gets rid of the heat to quickly but we will see 

The GFS op does the same after Tuesday. And it was a big outlier.

[kold weather]

ECM a little more quick to bring cloud East which limits temperatures, probably a 34-35c max type run compared with 36-37c from other models.

Beyond that heat limited to SE for the weekend before it pushes back up again and we get a very tropical feeling with plenty of storm chances.

Hot but not quite as extreme as other 12z runs tonight.

[Mr Frost]

UKV 15z quick temperature summary:

Friday 36C maximum

Saturday 35C maximum

Sunday 32C maximum 

Monday 33C maximum 

Wee look at Monday for 15:00:

Remember...Monday is next week!  

Charts will change between now and then of course.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Man With Beard]

Maximums we could expect based on ECM 12z

Fri 36

Sat 35

Sun 33

Mon 34

Tue 36

Wed 36

Other models and runs may differ!

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Maximums we could expect based on ECM 12z

Fri 36

Sat 35

Sun 33

Mon 34

Tue 36

Wed 36

Other models and runs may differ!

Unbelievable if that came off!

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

hi blue cheers

Im not sure where we differ there, maybe i didnt explain myself clearly, thats often the case, lol.

I take your point about the Azores ridge being semi permanent , but the green contour lines are quite flat, showing hardly any ridging there so to my understanding, doesnt support the ops large AZH to our near west.

I used charts for the same height, 500mb/hpa so dont both charts affect the surface the same?..

 

Cpc charts are generally derived from ens mean output rather than operational ...... you can compare the op to see how different it is to get a feel for how likely that op may verify 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Maximums we could expect based on ECM 12z

Fri 36

Sat 35

Sun 33

Mon 34

Tue 36

Wed 36

Other models and runs may differ!

ECM was about 2c too low today and roll that error forward would suggest your figures are about 2c too high.

Still a very hot run but more realistic highs would be 32-34c based on current estimated error. Also will be alot of thunder around I suspect.

We will know more tomorrow as those runs will have the air starting to actually advect ovwr

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Maximums we could expect based on ECM 12z

Fri 36

Sat 35

Sun 33

Mon 34

Tue 36

Wed 36

Other models and runs may differ!

Sounds like a cold outlier

[Djdazzle]

ECM looks out of kilter regarding Friday’s temperatures.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM was about 2c too low today and roll that error forward would suggest your figures are about 2c too high.

Still a very hot run but more realistic highs would be 32-34c based on current estimated error. Also will be alot of thunder around I suspect.

We will know more tomorrow as those runs will have the air starting to actually advect ovwr

It's a tough call but I'm bearing in mind it was 5C too low last Friday

[Methuselah]

Well I've watched the latest Met Office's lastest take on what the models are currently saying... and it's Phew, what a Scorcher: 

But anyway, do any of the main models disagree with this?

[stodge]

Evening all

It looks as though we shall have to endure 5-6 days of oppressive heat and increasing humidity down here in lowland East London.

That said, it looks as though the story of this "hot spell" will be more about storms and heat rather than sun and heat especially as we move into next week.

ECM 12Z OP at T+120 and we see the airflow shift more to the SE than a due S'ly but the top of the plume is over the far south and there could well be some sharp storms coming off that.

GFS 12Z OP at the same time:

If this were January, we'd all be trying to work out how much snow the south might get. Once again, the trough has split the two HP cells and there's more than a hint of thunder.

12Z GEM at the same time:

Not wildly different as you might expect. The location and orientation of the HP cell will be significant in determining airflow and any trough activity.

Finally, UKMO at T+120 for a change and again it's not radically different.

So, it looks like a scorchingly sunny Friday before a slight relaxation in the heat Saturday and then a renewed pulse of heat but more humid and unstable from Sunday to Tuesday with a growing risk of storms before a merciful return to something more seasonal next midweek. Not much fun for those of us who don't like heat and high humidity but it happens every so often (though not so much this year).

[Gordon Webb]

not sure if any attention should be paid to it but the met office app has a NE/E direction wind/draw/direction from Saturday through Wednesday for my locale , also not showing much except cloudy/sunny spells , suspect it'll be all change by Saturday and I'll either be roasted or dodging storms neither of which are my favorite weather type

edit - just read post above and can confirm I probably won't be having much fun it that comes off

Edited August 5, 2020 by Gordon Webb

[qwertyK]

Where tf are we getting 36c for next week from? Weather forecasts not even in the 30s it looks more humid/tropical weather than dry heat. Forgive me but given that the models are changing from day to day just to make up their mind about this weekend if I'm taking anything beyond Friday with a pinch of salt 

[Daniel]

Latest ecm ensembles 

[Gordon Webb]

8 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Where tf are we getting 36c for next week from? Weather forecasts not even in the 30s it looks more humid/tropical weather than dry heat. Forgive me but given that the models are changing from day to day just to make up their mind about this weekend if I'm taking anything beyond Friday with a pinch of salt 

according to the app mentioned in my last post temps vary between 25 and 29 I think throughout the period and sometimes hot and humid is not always sunny I name it the HHH ie hot humid and horrible

edit - just noticed I passed 1500 posts just another 998,488 to the magic million but I since I recently turned 45 not very confident of getting there and apologies for a serious drift off topic

Edited August 5, 2020 by Gordon Webb

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

It looks as though we shall have to endure 5-6 days of oppressive heat and increasing humidity down here in lowland East London.

That said, it looks as though the story of this "hot spell" will be more about storms and heat rather than sun and heat especially as we move into next week.

ECM 12Z OP at T+120 and we see the airflow shift more to the SE than a due S'ly but the top of the plume is over the far south and there could well be some sharp storms coming off that.

GFS 12Z OP at the same time:

If this were January, we'd all be trying to work out how much snow the south might get. Once again, the trough has split the two HP cells and there's more than a hint of thunder.

12Z GEM at the same time:

Not wildly different as you might expect. The location and orientation of the HP cell will be significant in determining airflow and any trough activity.

Finally, UKMO at T+120 for a change and again it's not radically different.

So, it looks like a scorchingly sunny Friday before a slight relaxation in the heat Saturday and then a renewed pulse of heat but more humid and unstable from Sunday to Tuesday with a growing risk of storms before a merciful return to something more seasonal next midweek. Not much fun for those of us who don't like heat and high humidity but it happens every so often (though not so much this year).

Sorry for sounding a complete plank, Mr Stodge... But where, exactly, are the London Highlands?

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Sorry for sounding a complete plank, Mr Stodge... But where, exactly, are the London Highlands?

Hampstead!

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Latest ecm ensembles 

Pretty solid on a few days of Summer then back to wet Westerlies, especially for us in the sodden North West.

[Gordon Webb]

6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Sorry for sounding a complete plank, Mr Stodge... But where, exactly, are the London Highlands?

just look out for people with Kilts then follow them and bobs your uncle

Edited August 5, 2020 by Gordon Webb

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

just look out for people with Kilts then follow them and bobs your uncle

Hey... I thought it was the Gay Gordons: Gordon, where's your troosers? 

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Where tf are we getting 36c for next week from? Weather forecasts not even in the 30s it looks more humid/tropical weather than dry heat. Forgive me but given that the models are changing from day to day just to make up their mind about this weekend if I'm taking anything beyond Friday with a pinch of salt 

UKMO op run this evening has 20c line into the SE Tuesday with SSE winds....if storms stay away it’s a given really. Looking more unstable out of the weekend though, so loads to play for. 
It’s also much hotter than other runs so likely an outlier anyway.