Model output discussion - into July 2020

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, smichling said:

In fairness, Netweather ‘feels like’ forecasts was 38C for last Friday in London and we got up to 37.8C at Heathrow. I like to take my own blend of the models (that often slightly undercook raw temps) and the feels like forecast (that often slightly overcooks them). Going by that method we’d be looking at 37-38C I think. Maybe 39C if somewhere stays cloud-free. 
That’s just my makeshift method! 

Wasn't that 40C feel like for next week? If 40c is likely it will probably be on friday when there isn't any cloud and even then I'd be surprised if we meet 40C. 

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, clark3r said:

BBC way out with temperatures intrested to see the ECM run 

I swear since splitting with the Met Office their forecasts are just based on the latest ECM run.

[summer blizzard]

26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair, it wasn't that long ago the GFS had the heat totally gone by Saturday morning.

If anything over the past couple of days the length has been drastically increased in terms of how long the heat is going to hang around, at least in the SE.

Even when it killed the heat on Saturday for most parts (something still modelled actually north of the Midlands) the heat swung back in until Thursday so we are gradually making progress albeit at this range not much more likely (and it does appear the GFS operational is a cool run relative to the ensemble mean). 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I swear since splitting with the Met Office their forecasts are just based on the latest ECM run.

And probably just the raw values, which will be less than what is achieved. Last week, the BBC were forecasting 34C for Friday, even on the day itself when it was obviously going to easily surpass that figure.

GFS 12z is a huge cool outlier!

Edited August 5, 2020 by Djdazzle

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

And probably just the raw values, which will be less than what is achieved. Last week, the BBC were forecasting 34C for Friday, even on the day itself when it was obviously going to easily surpass that figure.

GFS 12z is a huge cool outlier!

I know its probably been discussed many times before, but Heathrow weather station must have some what of an influenec from its surroundings. Not saying its the planes, because other airports aren't the hottest places, but the concrete and asphalt from the nearby motorways, the airport itself and the urban area must have some kind of UHI on the area. 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And I have embarrassed myself once again 

No need to worry Zak:   If only I would take my own advice!

PS: And I still (half of the time, at least) haven't the faintest idea what I'm on about!

That said: I'm effing glad my boss told me not to come in on Friday... as it'll very likely be too hot. Thank you, Niamh!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I know its probably been discussed many times before, but Heathrow weather station must have some what of an influenec from its surroundings. Not saying its the planes, because other airports aren't the hottest places, but the concrete and asphalt from the nearby motorways, the airport itself and the urban area must have some kind of UHI on the area. 

It has been discussed numerous times and the consensus is that any effect is minimal. It does well in SE flows as the air Is heated as it descends from the North Downs.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Djdazzle

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It has been discussed numerous times and the consensus is that any effect is minimal. It does well in SE flows as the air Is heated as it descends from the North Downs.

Places like Farnborough do well also in that sort of airflow, last week they went decently north of 35c as well.

My own location likewise benefits from that to a lesser extent from the South Downs. 

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It has been discussed numerous times and the consensus is that any effect is minimal. It does well in SE flows as the air Is heated as it descends from the North Downs.

A bit like a fohn wind-

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

A bit like a fohn wind-

I always thought the old Gravesend station suffered from that in summer.

But everywhere is a real place, and a bit different, it would be silly to situate weather stations in places divorced from reality?

[danm]

20 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I know its probably been discussed many times before, but Heathrow weather station must have some what of an influenec from its surroundings. Not saying its the planes, because other airports aren't the hottest places, but the concrete and asphalt from the nearby motorways, the airport itself and the urban area must have some kind of UHI on the area. 

Effect I think is minimal. The reason most likely to be that Heathrow is within the boundaries of the biggest urban area in the U.K., in the warmest part of the country. Being on the western side of Greater London means it’s further away from the Thames Estuary as well. It’s a well positioned site to often get the warmest temperatures. 

[clark3r]

Looked at the GEFS mean 12z has temps in the 30s right out to Saturday next week

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I always thought the old Gravesend station suffered from that in summer.

But everywhere is a real place, and a bit different, it would be silly to situate weather stations in places divorced from reality?

Any station is going to be subject to some influence from urbanisation, unless placed in the middle of nowhere where no-one lives, which seems a bit pointless. The influences are small anyway. Weather stations are built and placed according to strict standards.

[Mapantz]

Stick to model discussion please...

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Stick to model discussion please...

Aye, and ECM T72 is eye candy for the hot squad, 

[SMU]

Day 4 never seen an easterly that hot before-

Awaiting day 5 poss +19/20c

[Mike Poole]

T96:

I think this is the point it gets interesting, yes Friday, but the real interest is early next week.  If this slides to a SE rather than E wind like UKMO, it could get very hot.....

[Ice Day]

ECM out to 144 and it's not quite the blow torch the UKMO is, but still hot all the same.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144

I’d imagine the heat plume would waft back west a bit in next two frames.  We will see....

[tight isobar]

The heat reset button looks like being pushed again ..and again throughout August.. some stunning/interesting stuff atm !!!.. see where we go......

[Ice Day]

The real heat is being swept out of the way by day 7 - I wouldn't hang my hat on this evolution by any stretch though!

  

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Ice Day

[qwertyK]

11 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

ECM out to 144 and it's not quite the blow torch the UKMO is, but still hot all the same.  

So could east Anglia end up being hotter than London ?

[tight isobar]

Just now, qwertyK said:

So could east Anglia end up being hotter than London ?

Possibly??! But after Monday there’s much to be resolved on this particular plume atm !!!

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

So could east Anglia end up being hotter than London ?

Given the proximity to the coast and London's UHI effect, I wouldnt have thought so. Still, all academic at this stage though.

[sheikhy]

Whats the temps looking like for the midlands friday to tuesday on ecm?