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Model output discussion - into July 2020

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep, Tuesday far away in the distance at the moment. Subject to many changes yet.

Agreed, but at least there is more of a consensus about the next 4-5 days. The models are now much more in line.

Edited by Djdazzle
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

GFS12z a tad more progressive than yesterday in that while still warm next Wednesday, the real heat has gone. Slowly but surely the fiery hell of a few days ago has been squeezed (Fri-Tues now).

spacer.png 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Pretty underwhelming arpege 12z for friday for us in the midlands!!27 or 28 degrees widely which is still very warm but i expected hotter!!i will take the ukv shows 30 31 degrees and heat further north and west!!!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS12z a tad more progressive than yesterday in that while still warm next Wednesday, the real heat has gone. Slowly but surely the fiery hell of a few days ago has been squeezed (Fri-Tues now).

spacer.png 

The op is one of the more progressive options on the 12z suite.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Just had a chance to browse that run...incredible chart.

F1DE9287-16A2-49DE-8D15-F492F50DAB9B.thumb.gif.2a51fd5bbeae58cfeb12cf7b98079f96.gif
 

Between the chart you posted and this one above I thought that’s at least high twenties for me...had a quick look at the Met Office automated for that date. (Tuesday) 

 I am not having that...

79D2F455-D3D7-4E0A-8C96-460A6D99A6C9.thumb.jpeg.781960c95002af8aa0bf92235941bcf9.jpeg
 

I have a sneaky feeling that Met Office run might change in the morning...(Scotland at least)

Would be fantastic though if it did not!

First run of 30C days starting tomorrow through to Sunday (probably beyond!) down South?

It is going to be a close one as it does look a bit cloudy/wee bit of drizzle in the morning.
Snapshot of tomorrow - 16:00.

29C.

AA7CEF85-F876-4817-A031-83754AC3D4E2.thumb.png.c8b3d73cacaf9c5f4f7acd7906efb7c5.png
 

You may well mock, Mr F, you may well mock...But, up in The Glen (Glenurquhart) we saw 30C+ in both August '95 and '97! 

I will now slither back under my rock!:oldgrin:

 

 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS12z a tad more progressive than yesterday in that while still warm next Wednesday, the real heat has gone. Slowly but surely the fiery hell of a few days ago has been squeezed (Fri-Tues now).

spacer.png 

To be fair, it wasn't that long ago the GFS had the heat totally gone by Saturday morning.

If anything over the past couple of days the length has been drastically increased in terms of how long the heat is going to hang around, at least in the SE.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Absolutely lashing it down while blowing a hoolie here, can see blue sky both east and west. This better not happen tomorrow but I fear Will looking at the output tonight!! 

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NApplewhite Enthusiast

NApplewhite

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

12z UKMO shows 16c isotherm reaching Scotland, that's pretty hot. 35c+ I reckon somewhere in the south.

636122236_UW144-7(1).thumb.gif.a4985e9397512603f1ed233fe0ed456b.gif

@144

Im hoping we get the heat in Wrexham!  GFS showing feels like of 33 on Friday and only 19 on Saturday while London gets 35-36. Even Cardiff gets 26-27 on Saturday! its not fair!  Either way it feels more than the 18 degrees showing on my thermoter! very humid and warm this evening up in Wales. 

Edited by NApplewhite
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CheesepuffScott Accomplished

CheesepuffScott

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Gfs ensembles want to keep the heat going a little longer than the op

ens_image - 2020-08-05T181255.977.png

Can't complain (down here at least) with the mean upper air remaining above 10°C into the long range.

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NApplewhite Enthusiast

NApplewhite

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
Posted
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair, it wasn't that long ago the GFS had the heat totally gone by Saturday morning.

If anything over the past couple of days the length has been drastically increased in terms of how long the heat is going to hang around, at least in the SE.

Last Sunday we were looking at blowtorch temps in Wrexham of 30 degrees for 3-4 days now we might squeeze out 1 day. The GFS has messed up again!  I hate progressive charts! 

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like another day where 38c could be under threat again. Especially with all the heat for 5 days previous. Perhaps a shot at the all time again? Cloud and storms pending of course.

@Steve Murr?

Yes the UKMO 144 is furnace conditions for the South of the UK-

Heathrow under well established +19/20 uppers with near stationery air will be chasing down the top end 30 numbers.

Its the sort of run where is maintained would breech the 40c Mark ( over 2-3 days build up )

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Ian Price Contributor

Ian Price

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
Posted
11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty underwhelming arpege 12z for friday for us in the midlands!!27 or 28 degrees widely which is still very warm but i expected hotter!!i will take the ukv shows 30 31 degrees and heat further north and west!!!

Underwhelming for here in NW Wales too... 20C. (and NW UK) Not sure if the setup is right for NW areas. Need a stronger SEerly wind I guess to create a foehn effect?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Gfs ensembles want to keep the heat going a little longer than the op

ens_image - 2020-08-05T181255.977.png

I have seen a lot of GFS ensembles in my time, that I think is one of the most extraordinary since the age of the internet weather forums begun.... 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, NApplewhite said:

Last Sunday we were looking at blowtorch temps in Wrexham of 30 degrees for 3-4 days now we might squeeze out 1 day. The GFS has messed up again!  I hate progressive charts! 

Unfortunately what has happened is the north (even parts of Midlands) have indeed seen the worst of the heat squeezed out. IF we import a SE again then you'd see that heat come back in say on Monday/Tuesday. Something to watch for.

Meanwhile the SE keeps that heat the whole time and then it really comes down to the exact wind direction at the very lowest levels of the atmosphere as to how high surface temperatures go.

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NApplewhite Enthusiast

NApplewhite

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Daniel said:

For those up In Scotland you will be glad to know gfs was a big cold outlier 

ens_image - 2020-08-05T181846.204.png

image.thumb.png.0903ff7c67cec94c04600c5a21bafd4c.pngLondon showing 40 degrees on Monday.  What is the exact town or city that hangs onto the imported SE heat? Ie where does the heat end in England?  Looks like im only 161 miles from the heatwave! we just get one warm day. 

Edited by NApplewhite
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.0903ff7c67cec94c04600c5a21bafd4c.pngLondon showing 40 degrees on Monday. 

Overnight minima of 26c?! Pretty impressive that!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Overnight minima of 26c?! Pretty impressive that!

Those are feels like temperatures though, not actual

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, mb018538 said:

Those are feels like temperatures though, not actual

And I have embarrassed myself once again :olddoh:

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smichling Apprentice

smichling

Posted
  • Location: Norman, Oklahoma (University of Reading in the UK)
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW! And a good thunderstorm
  • Location: Norman, Oklahoma (University of Reading in the UK)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And I have embarrassed myself once again :olddoh:

In fairness, Netweather ‘feels like’ forecasts was 38C for last Friday in London and we got up to 37.8C at Heathrow. I like to take my own blend of the models (that often slightly undercook raw temps) and the feels like forecast (that often slightly overcooks them). Going by that method we’d be looking at 37-38C I think. Maybe 39C if somewhere stays cloud-free. 
That’s just my makeshift method! 

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