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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It has tendency to overdo temperatures beyond about 48 hours but within 48 hours it’s pretty accurate.

Ah, given my updates are for the day or two ahead, I wouldn't run into that issue  Cheers!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If it only reaches 34’C on Friday, I’ll eat my hat*
 

*Does anyone know where I can buy a hat?

Just pretend it's winter, and follow the white rabbit?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.75662e6286a36e74976fcf7c584aa5a3.png

This looks dangerously hot again on Tuesday. No North Sea flow here. 35c plus again? I expect 850s are in the 15-20c range when they appear soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z UKMO shows 16c isotherm reaching Scotland, that's pretty hot. 35c+ I reckon somewhere in the south.

636122236_UW144-7(1).thumb.gif.a4985e9397512603f1ed233fe0ed456b.gif

@144

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

I’ll be stunned if temperatures are that low on Friday. 36-37’C is my estimate. Clearly there is a chance of 38’C, no matter how small. Otherwise the forecasts drawn off the data wouldn’t show it.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, Zak M said:

16c isotherm reaching Scotland. That's pretty hot.

636122236_UW144-7(1).thumb.gif.a4985e9397512603f1ed233fe0ed456b.gif

@144

Given where the heat is, that looks almost perfect positioning of the high to get the heat over us, and for a prolonged period unlike last weeks 1 day plume:

UKMO T144:

9BEEC64F-367B-49C8-8252-BE054CEF1C4F.thumb.gif.371cd8ce27fb1d9c32909b76b0c832b8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z UKMO shows 16c isotherm reaching Scotland, that's pretty hot. 35c+ I reckon somewhere in the south.

636122236_UW144-7(1).thumb.gif.a4985e9397512603f1ed233fe0ed456b.gif

@144

Looks like another day where 38c could be under threat again. Especially with all the heat for 5 days previous. Perhaps a shot at the all time again? Cloud and storms pending of course.

@Steve Murr?

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

When I was wittering-on about the Urban Heat Island effect, this is what I meant: London being sat under 15-17C T850s and nary a breath of wind, for several days... where's the day's heat going to go? And even the Met are forecasting 38C!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Not to mention the air-pollution!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Utterly outrageous UKMO, in fact the run is pretty much the same as the morning run. The day 6 chart has the 18C isotherm across all of England except the south west and a slack southerly across the east of the UK.

U144-21UK.GIF?05-18   UW144-7.GIF?05-18

The heat remains at all times in the south and starts getting pushes quickly north on Monday.

 

 

Incredible run. The thunderstorms if they come with it will likely be out of this world too. A very Florida Esque run! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The GFS starting to also really draw in the hotter air again during the early part of the next week.

Anyway both Friday and Saturday look exceptionally hot for the SE quarter of the country. Given the models are now not forcing the upper heat out of the way and the uppers if anything slightly INCREASE from Friday, there is indeed an increasingly good chance that Saturday also could end up being a top 5 hottest ever day challenger, and with that a fair chance one of the two days will challenge the all time record.

Could be looking at 96hrs where the SE quarter of above 16c at 850hpa and with an airflow that only occasionally may draw in slightly moderated air from the north sea. Any time it switches back even ESE temperatures are going to climb back towards 35c next week.

Sunday might be somewhat cooler given a Eish flow, though the further south you are the greater the chance of the heat holding on (and I still strongly suspect somewhere maxes above 32c on Sunday) but a real chance the winds flip back ESE/SE from Monday and if that happens things are going to become exceptionally hot again.

PS - some of these runs are getting so hot they are starting to spawn thermal lows. don't see that all that often in this neck of the woods, its generally a subtropical thing!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Monday gfs shows 35 in London, add the normal 2 or 3 degrees gives 38 plus heat that has built from previous days and off dry continent if this run came of surely London could be breaking the all time record 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Incredible run. The thunderstorms if they come with it will likely be out of this world too. A very Florida Esque run! 

Stop getting me excited :oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, clark3r said:

Monday gfs shows 35 in London, add the normal 2 or 3 degrees gives 38 plus heat that has built from previous days and off dry continent if this run came of surely London could be breaking the all time record 

I would have thought so.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The GFS starting to also really draw in the hotter air again during the early part of the next week.

Anyway both Friday and Saturday look exceptionally hot for the SE quarter of the country. Given the models are now not forcing the upper heat out of the way and the uppers if anything slightly INCREASE from Friday, there is indeed an increasingly good chance that Saturday also could end up being a top 5 hottest ever day challenger, and with that a fair chance one of the two days will challenge the all time record.

Could be looking at 96hrs where the SE quarter of above 16c at 850hpa and with an airflow that only occasionally may draw in slightly moderated air from the north sea. Any time it switches back even ESE temperatures are going to climb back towards 35c next week.

Sunday might be somewhat cooler given a Eish flow, though the further south you are the greater the chance of the heat holding on (and I still strongly suspect somewhere maxes above 32c on Sunday) but a real chance the winds flip back ESE/SE from Monday and if that happens things are going to become exceptionally hot again.

The models are changing daily yes the met says 38 but if you look only 36c is shown. After Friday winds are coming from the northeast rather than the southeast. Apart from Friday all the other days have cloud, last summer the met forecasted 39C and it ended up as 38.7c yes okay not a massive difference but a even 0.1-0.3c can be the difference between holding or breaking a record 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I think the uncertainty regarding how high temperatures may go is down tto how much cloud cover there will be from storms/PPN. I think the storm risk definately increases for next week that is for sure. 

Hot day on Friday and probably Saturday(although maybe on a smaller scale) then turninf cooler Sunday with hotting up again next week if the flow goes more SE'ly again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Stop getting me excited :oldlaugh:

What about me, Zak -- I'm an old fart -- I might cark it even before it happens!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

BFAB4973-9354-4104-BC18-DBDEF5289E5E.thumb.png.0ef007c9fcd635209845abd435d2dc10.png

12 Arpege - 36c showing again.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’ll be stunned if temperatures are that low on Friday. 36-37’C is my estimate. Clearly there is a chance of 38’C, no matter how small. Otherwise the forecasts drawn off the data wouldn’t show it.

We’re more likely to see maybe high 30s early next week IMO, mainland Europe will be blistering hot it’s looking the hottest spell since 2006 or 2003... on UKMO I can see it. As far as I know no raw data has 38C in London area and Marco P met office employee, recently tweeted the automated forecasts some are now modified in this instance Heathrow has surely been to account for airport. ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

BFAB4973-9354-4104-BC18-DBDEF5289E5E.thumb.png.0ef007c9fcd635209845abd435d2dc10.png

12 Arpege - 36c showing again.

Alot more restricted though compared with the 06z ARPEGE.

Indeed area of highest temperatures very similar in location to the UKV, broadly in the London area for 35-37C then a more broad area of 31-32c temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We’re more likely to see maybe high 30s early next week IMO, mainland Europe will be blistering hot it’s looking the hottest spell since 2006 or 2003... on UKMO I can see it. As far as I know no raw data has 38C in London area and Marco P met office employee, recently tweeted the automated forecasts some are now modified in this instance Heathrow has surely been to account for airport. ;) 

38’C for Kew Gardens too. Dan Holley said their estimates are 38’C taking into account cloud cover, model bias etc. I reckon 36-37’C should certainly be achievable though. We seem to get higher temperatures from less exceptional upper air temperatures these days. 

The trouble with next week is that it’s further ahead and we know that the vast majority of times things end up ‘watered down’ from that range.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

38’C for Kew Gardens too. Dan Holley said their estimates are 38’C taking into account cloud cover, model bias etc. I reckon 36-37’C should certainly be achievable though. We seem to get higher temperatures from less exceptional upper air temperatures these days. 

The trouble with next week is that it’s further ahead and we know that the vast majority of times things end up ‘watered down’ from that range.

Yep, Tuesday far away in the distance at the moment. Subject to many changes yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
46 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z UKMO shows 16c isotherm reaching Scotland, that's pretty hot. 35c+ I reckon somewhere in the south.

636122236_UW144-7(1).thumb.gif.a4985e9397512603f1ed233fe0ed456b.gif

@144

Just had a chance to browse that run...incredible chart.

F1DE9287-16A2-49DE-8D15-F492F50DAB9B.thumb.gif.2a51fd5bbeae58cfeb12cf7b98079f96.gif
 

Between the chart you posted and this one above I thought that’s at least high twenties for me...had a quick look at the Met Office automated for that date. (Tuesday) 

 I am not having that...

79D2F455-D3D7-4E0A-8C96-460A6D99A6C9.thumb.jpeg.781960c95002af8aa0bf92235941bcf9.jpeg
 

I have a sneaky feeling that Met Office run might change in the morning...(Scotland at least)

Would be fantastic though if it did not!

First run of 30C days starting tomorrow through to Sunday (probably beyond!) down South?

It is going to be a close one as it does look a bit cloudy/wee bit of drizzle in the morning.
Snapshot of tomorrow - 16:00.

29C.

AA7CEF85-F876-4817-A031-83754AC3D4E2.thumb.png.c8b3d73cacaf9c5f4f7acd7906efb7c5.png
 

Edited by Mr Frost
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