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Model output discussion - into July 2020

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Hi rob - two things..... the cpc chart is a mean over 5 days.  I get why you’ve selected the chart for day 8 and in a slow moving evolution, that shouldn’t be too far from the mean pattern.  But the cpc chart is all about uppers rather than the surface flow and upper trough e Atlantic w of Iberia with sceuro ridge seems right to me.  The dotted lines show the position of the mean anomoly which translates to the W Iberian upper low (definitely the issue we have next week with the uncertainty surrounding what happens with it) and upper ridge w of scandi.  Remember that the Azores upper ridge is a semi permanent feature so would rarely show as an anomoly .... the scandi ridge however ........

hi blue cheers

Im not sure where we differ there, maybe i didnt explain myself clearly, thats often the case, lol.

I take your point about the Azores ridge being semi permanent , but the green contour lines are quite flat, showing hardly any ridging there so to my understanding, doesnt support the ops large AZH to our near west.

I used charts for the same height, 500mb/hpa so dont both charts affect the surface the same?..

 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
11 minutes ago, matt111 said:

It's just updated. 

 image.thumb.png.52cc3f3b45311fb7d76369a06db05dd2.png

 

Same as the 09z!!pretty much identical!!all set for a hot friday!!hopefully saturday can upgrade one the 12zs!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, matt111 said:

It's just updated. 

 image.thumb.png.52cc3f3b45311fb7d76369a06db05dd2.png

 

Big south east bias, Arpege has pushed temps into the 30s much further west. 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

is that the 12z arpege mate?any charts to show?

8E19E8CA-2A71-408D-8EB0-5940E1C7D4B8.thumb.png.f77c937500d48e84c80460850cd649c4.png

Not out yet for the 12z - this was 6z

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

8E19E8CA-2A71-408D-8EB0-5940E1C7D4B8.thumb.png.f77c937500d48e84c80460850cd649c4.png

Not out yet for the 12z - this was 6z

To be fair i dont see no difference to the latest 12z ukv!!western.and northern extent same!!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

To be fair i dont see no difference to the latest 12z ukv!!western.and northern extent same!!

Arpege has 33C almost down into Devon, UKV has 27C

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

ICON is red hot Friday through Tuesday could be some unusually humid conditions with temps in places around 30-32C and dew points in the low 20's C. Wouldn't be surprised to see the all-time DP record (Which I think is 24C for the UK) challenged in this setup. 

Edited by Guest
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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ICON is red hot Friday through Tuesday could be some unusually humid conditions with temps in places around 30-32C and dew points in the low 20's C. Wouldn't be surprised to see the all-time DP record (Which I think is 24C for the UK) challenged in this setup. 

Sweaty shorts time then!

That level of humidity with temps approaching the mid 30s could be quite oppressive.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Big south east bias, Arpege has pushed temps into the 30s much further west. 

What south east bias there’s no such thing? ARPEGE is a model known for being too hot and going crazy with coverage. ECM 00z has cloud for you before midday I’m sure UKV is reflecting that. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What south east bias there’s no such thing? ARPEGE is a model known for being too hot and going crazy with coverage. ECM 00z has cloud for you before midday I’m sure UKV is reflecting that. 

ARPEGE was spot on last Friday.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Any early.updates on gfs 12z?pushed the heat further west like 06z?

Any reason you're not able to check?

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

ARPEGE was spot on last Friday.

It’s a rare instance most models were widely off ECM for example was 5C off if you’ve used the model over the years you will have identified it tends to be the most OTT equally with wind speeds as well. ECM has a 34C in Cambridge on Friday I can see this being closer to reality I can’t see how 17C uppers can translate to knocking on for record breaking heat. It won’t happen. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s a rare instance most models were widely off ECM for example was 5C off if you’ve used the model over the years you will have identified it tends to be the most OTT equally with wind speeds as well. ECM has a 34C in Cambridge on Friday I can see this being closer to reality I can’t see how 17C uppers can translate to knocking on for record breaking heat. It won’t happen. 

We aren’t talking record breaking heat though. As I mentioned before, 1990 achieved 37.1 with 17C uppers. Friday has uppers of around 18. So 37-38 is more than possible.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ARPEGE is a model known for being too hot and going crazy with coverage.

? First time I've heard of that. Anyone else agree?

I've found it pretty reliable for temps this summer and have often used it in my own forecasts. AROME is pretty decent, too.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
Just now, Kid Thunder said:

? First time I've heard of that. Anyone else agree?

I've found it pretty reliable for temps this summer and have often used it in my own forecasts. AROME is pretty decent, too.

It has tendency to overdo temperatures beyond about 48 hours but within 48 hours it’s pretty accurate.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

We aren’t talking record breaking heat though. As I mentioned before, 1990 achieved 37.1 with 17C uppers. Friday has uppers of around 18. So 37-38 is more possible.

Well the met office app is forecasting 38°C and this has caused quite a stir on Twitter. Personally I don’t think there’s a chance of that.

2BB17C05-679B-486F-90B0-A593E02E1520.thumb.png.fb6e35b8928743e1786b0f813d1a3c24.png

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, MattStoke said:

If it only reaches 34’C on Friday, I’ll eat my hat*
 

*Does anyone know where I can buy a hat?

I’d start eating it now - get a head start!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well the met office app is forecasting 38°C and this has caused quite a stir on Twitter. Personally I don’t think there’s a chance of that.

2BB17C05-679B-486F-90B0-A593E02E1520.thumb.png.fb6e35b8928743e1786b0f813d1a3c24.png

38 maybe pushing it. But a good chance of 37 I think.

Met Office app now saying 37 for Heathrow.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

GFS upping the anti for Saturday which has maxes similar to Friday now of 34C and 33C for Sunday now in the far south east. 

Edited by Guest
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