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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hemel
  • Location: Hemel
7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m sure today was meant to be pretty cloudy too. Broke around 10.00 and it’s now full sun. Even at this range, I wouldn’t trust those charts.

This is what I was thinking. Clear blue skies here when it’s been predicted cloud the past few days for most of the day.

Id be interested to see what the charts showed for cloud clover yesterday, for today for comparison.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
34 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

More publicly available data and regular updates. It’s hugely flawed though. All models are but the GFS especially. Hopefully the GFSP will fully replace it soon. The GFSP has more cold bias at longer range though, so that should make winters even more fun on here

One of my friends who works for the Met Office says their latest prediction is 38’C on Friday!

GFS does really well in more progressive flows and often pucks up on low pressure adjustments well. That also means it can be biased when it comes to blocking and often ends up shifting everything back westwards with time.

As we are now seeing.

My gut is 38c is right at the upper of what is possible unless Thursday turns up a little warmer. 36-37c looks more realistic to me based on what I've seen so far, but usual hotspot location could well get into that territory 

Not at all surprised that the GFS is upping temperatures on Saturday, sheltered places could well get towards 35c then as well near the south coast.

Beyond that and much depends on how much instability persists in the forecast. Still very warm and probably very tropical feeling, more than usual in this sot of flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
10 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Holy shizzles... just woken up to some amazing runs today!

If the 00z ECM comes off then it could potentially result in one of the most thundery periods in years.

Take a look at this - click on the 'Rain, thunder' option (make sure you choose ECM as the model) and play it from Sunday onwards. Madness!

socialshare3.jpg
WWW.WINDY.COM

Wind map and weather forecast

 

Thankyou for sharing this site, I've never heard of it! It's ace!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Amazing how the gfs pushed everything east last 48 hours and now has pushed the heat further north and west again!!love these upgrades closer to the event.reminds me of winter when we see last minute upgrades to a snowy slider or easterly winds from siberia

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, sheikhy said:

Amazing how the gfs pushed everything east last 48 hours and now has pushed the heat further north and west again!!love these upgrades closer to the event.reminds me of winter when we see last minute upgrades to a snowy slider or easterly winds from siberia

Or in most cases, last minute downgrades!

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Last one of the day...getting into that reliable (silly thing to say I know ) timeframe for temperatures on Friday.

Wee 36C popping up now...

UKV: 12:00 and 15:00

8C7BCA2E-0B76-4857-B80F-0CAA15E33931.thumb.png.bf3cb8c5fba2994af4a0515f13a2c937.pngFC7EB2DF-7B8C-4402-8A0C-D7B0F0EB6AC8.thumb.png.383f36f8591508e88685045984983b2e.png
 

 

You have got to think at least 36C is now nailed on for Friday.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 06Z ens are pretty good, with the T850s only getting as low as about 6.5C, on August 21... I am NOT complaining!:oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

And... aren't those 2m predictions, post the 13th, rubbish? Though I suppose it could be very cloudy and very humid!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
34 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Last one of the day...getting into that reliable (silly thing to say I know ) timeframe for temperatures on Friday.

Wee 36C popping up now...

UKV: 12:00 and 15:00

8C7BCA2E-0B76-4857-B80F-0CAA15E33931.thumb.png.bf3cb8c5fba2994af4a0515f13a2c937.pngFC7EB2DF-7B8C-4402-8A0C-D7B0F0EB6AC8.thumb.png.383f36f8591508e88685045984983b2e.png
 

 

You have got to think at least 36C is now nailed on for Friday.

well thankfully the what I call really hot stuff stays SE of me on Friday and hopefully in the main will stay there in the days after , been roasted day after day won't be pleasant for me , not sure how others can enjoy it but have fun for those that can

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's becoming a little difficult to keep up with these posts right now folks due to the fact I can't find the time to visit as often as I would like.. But great stuff as usual.. I think the met office needs to start a mass roll out to employ some of you guys. 

A quick glance at the 6z mean and what is not to like! It brings us Summer lovers everything... Heat, Sunshine, and potentially some hum dinger storms.. The mean gets very close to bring +20C uppers in next week also.. That's pretty impressive for a mean.. Enjoy the heat if you can and stay safe.. ☀️

gens-0-1-96.png

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gens-0-1-168.png

gens-0-1-180.png

gens-0-0-144.png

gens-0-0-156.png

Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

It's becoming a little difficult to keep up with these posts right now folks due to the fact I can't find the time to visit as often as I would like.. But great stuff as usual.. I think the met office needs to start a mass roll out to employ some of you guys. 

A quick glance at the 6z mean and what is not to like! It brings us Summer lovers everything... Heat, Sunshine, and potentially some hum dinger storms.. The mean gets very close to bring +20C uppers in next week also.. That's pretty impressive for a mean.. Enjoy the heat if you can and stay safe.. ☀️

gens-0-1-96.png

gens-0-1-120.png

gens-0-1-144.png

gens-0-1-168.png

gens-0-1-180.png

gens-0-0-144.png

gens-0-0-156.png

Are us Manchester folk still going to be suffering North Sea muck and cloud along with high teens and low 20s?? 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres something not right here.... the NOAA 500mb 6-10 day chart below appears to be out on its own. Mid point of 6-10 days is 8 days or t192.

There is good agreement between the GFS and ECM pictured below at t192. Both show a strong Azores ridge with shallow troughing to our South over France, with high pressure right over Scandinavia. The corresponding 850's are good and suggest heat and humidity.
But the consistent NOAA 500mb charts simply does not support this... That chart suggests the Scandinavian high is closer, centred more over Norway . It suggests theres troughing West of Northwestern Spain and the Azores high shunted Westwards.
If the NOAA chart becomes reality, surely we will bake!, but the ops dont paint such a good picture, being more thundery and with that easterly flow off the north sea, will suppress temps.

It will be interesting to see whether the usually more accurate (for this timeframe) NOAA charts are nearer the mark, or whether the ops that are keen to bring a cooler Azores high into play will prevail.

 

ecm next.jpg

610day.03.gif

Hi rob - two things..... the cpc chart is a mean over 5 days.  I get why you’ve selected the chart for day 8 and in a slow moving evolution, that shouldn’t be too far from the mean pattern.  But the cpc chart is all about uppers rather than the surface flow and upper trough e Atlantic w of Iberia with sceuro ridge seems right to me.  The dotted lines show the position of the mean anomoly which translates to the W Iberian upper low (definitely the issue we have next week with the uncertainty surrounding what happens with it) and upper ridge w of scandi.  Remember that the Azores upper ridge is a semi permanent feature so would rarely show as an anomoly .... the scandi ridge however ........

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just a quick run through of the current temperatures compared with the models 00z/06z suite today:

GFS: Too low today by around 2c

ECM: Too low today by a similar amount, maybe a touch more.

ICON: Too low today, but less error than the other two.

CMC: Too low but again closer than the other global models, as per normal in hot situations.

ARPEGE: Pretty close to spot on, maybe the 26c area a shade too small.

This again gives higher level of confidence in the likelyhood of a 36-37c today that the ARPEGE is forecasting, given it appears to have the best grasp of todays heat already.

If we run forward a similar error on the forecasts for Friday, ECM gives a 35-36c and GFS 35C.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun ,Snow and Cold
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Are us Manchester folk still going to be suffering North Sea muck and cloud along with high teens and low 20s?? 

Easterlies are normally good for us here in the Western part of GM thanks to being sheltered by the Pennines,we get quite a lot of sunny days from HP Easterlies

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Last one of the day...getting into that reliable (silly thing to say I know ) timeframe for temperatures on Friday.

Wee 36C popping up now...

UKV: 12:00 and 15:00

8C7BCA2E-0B76-4857-B80F-0CAA15E33931.thumb.png.bf3cb8c5fba2994af4a0515f13a2c937.pngFC7EB2DF-7B8C-4402-8A0C-D7B0F0EB6AC8.thumb.png.383f36f8591508e88685045984983b2e.png
 

 

You have got to think at least 36C is now nailed on for Friday.

Going to feel like the med here from Friday - Wednesday atm subject to change 

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Posted
  • Location: West Fareham
  • Location: West Fareham
3 hours ago, Alderc said:

I am trying not to look at these, I will be exceptionally disappointed if I get a max of 21c and only 16-19c for most of the day....but to be fair it’s been calling it out for days now.....

They have the North Wales resorts at 17 °C on Saturday afternoon, now that's what I call disappointing ,with all this talk of 30s and above further SE.

Edited by DaveL
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Last one of the day...getting into that reliable (silly thing to say I know ) timeframe for temperatures on Friday.

Wee 36C popping up now...

UKV: 12:00 and 15:00

8C7BCA2E-0B76-4857-B80F-0CAA15E33931.thumb.png.bf3cb8c5fba2994af4a0515f13a2c937.pngFC7EB2DF-7B8C-4402-8A0C-D7B0F0EB6AC8.thumb.png.383f36f8591508e88685045984983b2e.png
 

 

You have got to think at least 36C is now nailed on for Friday.

That chart issued at 11:25 today for today’s max is already wrong by 1c - it’s 28c at Norwich and Mildenhall. So even on day zero it can be subject to a little change!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
47 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Are us Manchester folk still going to be suffering North Sea muck and cloud along with high teens and low 20s?? 

It's unusual for us to suffer North Sea muck in Manchester- it happens occasionally but it usually breaks up as it reaches the Pennines. The temp predictions by the GFS are not reliable at the best of times but they don't account for the Pennines very well in those setups IMO. ENE is not a terrible direction for NW England if that's what we do end up with next week. Mid 20s plus is possible with the air mass being so warm I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun ,Snow and Cold
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
16 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's unusual for us to suffer North Sea muck in Manchester- it happens occasionally but it usually breaks up as it reaches the Pennines. The temp predictions by the GFS are not reliable at the best of times but they don't account for the Pennines very well in those setups IMO. ENE is not a terrible direction for NW England if that's what we do end up with next week. Mid 20s plus is possible with the air mass being so warm I think.

Most of our nice spring weather during lockdown seems to have come as a result of HP drawing in easterlies which breaks up the cloud and leaves us with sunshine here i the NW

Edited by Spurry
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's currently 28C over here, and very likely to approach 30 tomorrow... And with that in mind (and what the models are unanimously suggesting) does anyone think that the UHI effect might might come into play, this coming Friday?

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is there any updates from the 12z ukv?or does that come out with the rest of the 12zs?

It's just updated. 

 image.thumb.png.52cc3f3b45311fb7d76369a06db05dd2.png

 

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