Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Mr Frost]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

Presumably the UKV charts accessed on this website are spot temps, not actual maximums. I wonder how much higher they are - one or two Celsius maybe? 

I think part of the reason is we don’t get the hourly snapshots until 48 hours before the day in question arrives (three hourly snapshots for Saturday of course as at today 12:00, 15:00, 18:00 ect ect) - that gives a better understanding on the predicted temperatures. (14:00/16:00 could be hotter than 15:00 for example)

Tomorrow for example:

14:00

 

15:00

 

16:00

 

Cloudy start for many but the temperatures heat up of course - hottest max of the day for a few is at 16:00.

Even I am bored of discussing temperatures now - was excited when it all began! 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Djdazzle]

9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think part of the reason is we don’t get the hourly snapshots until 24/36 hours before the day in question arrives (three hourly snapshots for Saturday of course as at today 12:00, 15:00, 18:00 ect ect) - that gives a better understanding on the predicted temperatures. (14:00/16:00 could be hotter than 15:00 for example)

Tomorrow for example:

14:00

 

15:00

 

16:00

 

Cloudy start for many but the temperatures heat up of course - hottest max of the day for a few is at 16:00.

Even I am bored of discussing temperatures now - was excited when it all began! 

It’s getting to that point - don’t think I can bring myself to look at the ICON 6z!

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s getting to that point - don’t think I can bring myself to look at the ICON 6z!

Saturday upto 12z looks 1-2c up in terms of the hottest temperature.

Friday still looking hot with large areas above 30-32c still, probably would comfortably go 35c in hotspots based on that run (maybe a conservative estimate as well.)

[Frosty.]

I gotta say this is preety much a great looking ECM 0z ensemble mean for the most part..get ready for a summertime special..I’m so much excited!!!

 

[MattStoke]

Just now, kold weather said:

Saturday upto 12z looks 1-2c up in terms of the hottest temperature.

Friday still looking hot with large areas above 30-32c still, probably would comfortably go 35c in hotspots based on that run (maybe a conservative estimate as well.)

I find the Aperge and Arome tend to do best with temperatures. The former has 37’C to the west of London on Friday. The latter doesn’t yet run out that far.

The GFSP shows quite large areas at 36’C and possibly some spots at 37’C if we could see a higher resolution version. I’m not sure how well that model does for temperatures.

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The GFSP shows quite large areas at 36’C and possibly some spots at 37’C if we could see a higher resolution version. I’m not sure how well that model does for temperatures.

Well, if the members who insist it is always 'woefully low' are correct, 43C might be reached!

Edited August 5, 2020 by General Cluster

[clark3r]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I find the Aperge and Arome tend to do best with temperatures. The former has 37’C to the west of London on Friday. The latter doesn’t yet run out that far.

The GFSP shows quite large areas at 36’C and possibly some spots at 37’C if we could see a higher resolution version. I’m not sure how well that model does for temperatures.

Gfsp also shows 35 in the south east on Saturday, 06z now shows a raw temp of 33 Saturday which add on 2 or 3 degrees 35 36 degrees also Friday night no lower than 22 degrees some parts already up to 31 degrees by 09.00 just 1 run though as we know each run changes

Edited August 5, 2020 by clark3r

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the members who insist it is always 'woeful' are correct, 43C might be reached!

That’s the older GFS. The GFSP is the ‘upgraded’ version and seems to handle temperatures better.

[Captain Shortwave]

Another little nudge on the 06z, and with that we suddenly get a wind off the continent for Saturday afternoon across the south.

And if by magic....

32c on the GFS for Saturday, any further nudges north would bring areas further north into the heat. The parallel on the 00z had 34c across East Anglia, but the surface pattern is complicated and unlikely like that.

Edit - The easterly flow is still there on Sunday, however temperatures below 30c due to thunderstorms breaking out across the south.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think part of the reason is we don’t get the hourly snapshots until 24/36 hours before the day in question arrives (three hourly snapshots for Saturday of course as at today 12:00, 15:00, 18:00 ect ect) - that gives a better understanding on the predicted temperatures. (14:00/16:00 could be hotter than 15:00 for example)

Tomorrow for example:

14:00

 

15:00

 

16:00

 

Cloudy start for many but the temperatures heat up of course - hottest max of the day for a few is at 16:00.

Even I am bored of discussing temperatures now - was excited when it all began! 

I am trying not to look at these, I will be exceptionally disappointed if I get a max of 21c and only 16-19c for most of the day....but to be fair it’s been calling it out for days now.....

[WheresTheSnow]

I don’t have access to cloud cover forecast for tomorrow afternoon, can anyone provide this? BBC are showing cloud cover for the majority of the day towards London so I’m assuming temperatures will be suppressed widely. 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That’s the older GFS. The GFSP is the ‘upgraded’ version and seems to handle temperatures better.

But why would anyone waste time on the old GFS, anyway...?

[Mr Frost]

@Alderc don’t look at the Met Office automated app forecast for Bournemouth tomorrow. 

10 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

I don’t have access to cloud cover forecast for tomorrow afternoon, can anyone provide this? BBC are showing cloud cover for the majority of the day towards London so I’m assuming temperatures will be suppressed widely. 

Don’t take these as gospel mate - best way to predict cloud cover is looking out the window!

12:00, 14:00 and 16:00 tomorrow.

[MattStoke]

23 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But why would anyone waste time on the old GFS, anyway...?

More publicly available data and regular updates. It’s hugely flawed though. All models are but the GFS especially. Hopefully the GFSP will fully replace it soon. The GFSP has more cold bias at longer range though, so that should make winters even more fun on here

One of my friends who works for the Met Office says their latest prediction is 38’C on Friday!

Edited August 5, 2020 by MattStoke

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, wellington boot said:

I think it would be tropical more than simply wet. Heat, storms, torrential downpours... Many on here would find it exciting I think. And we could do with the rain around here.

Yes I understand that some need the rain but when you've had nearly 200mm over the last two months it becomes less appealing. It's all about personal preference but I'd just like to see some sunshine and usable outdoor weather more than anything. 

[sheikhy]

Gfs has defo shifted the heat further north and west for the weekend!!saturday and sunday looking a lot better at the moment!!looking stormy as well for midlands and further south and east!!

[MattStoke]

Met Office in-house model has upped Friday’s temperatures. 38’C....

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by MattStoke

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

@Alderc don’t look at the Met Office automated app forecast for Bournemouth tomorrow. 

Don’t take these as gospel mate - best way to predict cloud cover is looking out the window!

12:00, 14:00 and 16:00 tomorrow.

Looking at that, northern France looks cloudy. According to the BBC app it’s showing sun all day!

[Methuselah]

With all the storms the models are predicting, for next week, a pair of metal-detecting lightning sandals might come in handy:

    

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Looking at that, northern France looks cloudy. According to the BBC app it’s showing sun all day!

Looks good for us in the midlands though!looks like a constant break.in the clouds all day!!maybe thats why we got a temperature forecast of a hot 27 degrees here tomorrow?

[Mr Frost]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Looking at that, northern France looks cloudy. According to the BBC app it’s showing sun all day!

That’s just a white block colour mate as those cloud charts do not take France into consideration. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks good for us in the midlands though!looks like a constant break.in the clouds all day!!maybe thats why we got a temperature forecast of a hot 27 degrees here tomorrow?

I suspect that a lot of the cloud will break as the day goes on. Late maximum and a very warm night to follow.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mr Frost said:

That’s just a white block colour mate as those particular cloud charts do not take France into consideration. 

Ah, fair enough. Cheers..

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

@Alderc don’t look at the Met Office automated app forecast for Bournemouth tomorrow. 

Don’t take these as gospel mate - best way to predict cloud cover is looking out the window!

12:00, 14:00 and 16:00 tomorrow.

Thanks, all the models homing in on this, certainly nailed the annoying cloud so no reason not to believe currently. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Thanks, all the models homing in on this, certainly nailed the annoying cloud so no reason not to believe currently. 

I’m sure today was meant to be pretty cloudy too. Broke around 10.00 and it’s now full sun. Even at this range, I wouldn’t trust those charts.