Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Latest UKV:

Friday 12:00 and 15:00:

35C maximum.

 

Saturday 12:00 and 15:00:

33C maximum.

 

Have a good day!

Edited August 5, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well the ECM has returned to one of its hot runs from earlier in the week.

I won't post my "adjusted raw predictions" as there was a bit too much of an uproar the other night, but, basically, the South East would remain in the low to mid 30Cs from Friday until next Wednesday. The general area of heat much further north and west.

Just one run only (OK two if you count the UKMO!). Need more runs, even at this late stage.

I had a brief twitter chat with Marco P regarding the despondency felt yesterday. 

He was unequivocal, insisting no downgrades from the UKMO perspective, and advised against getting hung up on individual runs. He seemed very confident. I know they take a lot of stick, but he's very approachable. 

(apologies if this isn't deemed specific enough for the model watching thread) 

[Djdazzle]

GFS is king . . .

[bluearmy]

BUT, has any model got the upper trough correct yet for next week ?  I very much doubt it ...... over analysis beyond Sunday is a bit of a waste of your time at the moment 

[Djdazzle]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

BUT, has any model got the upper trough correct yet for next week ?  I very much doubt it ...... over analysis beyond Sunday is a bit of a waste of your time at the moment 

Very wise. Hence all those proclamations of models “winning” is very premature.

[Singularity]

Presumably the UKV charts accessed on this website are spot temps, not actual maximums. I wonder how much higher they are - one or two Celsius maybe? 

Edited August 5, 2020 by Singularity

[mb018538]

Still looking like a bit of a nowcasting situation with maxima this upcoming few days. Chopping and changing wildly run to run, who’d be a forecaster!

[MattStoke]

37’C looks on this Friday going by the Aperge and the GFSP. 37’C has only been recorded 4 times in the space of 145 years but could be recorded twice within the space of a week!

Good to see the models putting out warmer output again further ahead. Strange too considering the king of models, the GFS had trounced them all with it’s cooler and more unsettled outlook.

[Paceyboy]

54 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS is king . . .

Of garden path leading. Hoping UKMO is right as it would be very interesting.

Is there not still too much of a cooling flow off the north sea which will scupper temps earlier next week for much of the midlands or is it better with regard to this mornings Euros?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Paceyboy said:

Of garden path leading. Hoping UKMO is right as it would be very interesting.

Is there not still too much of a cooling flow off the north sea which will scupper temps earlier next week for much of the midlands or is it better with regard to this mornings Euros?

It’s a better flow - much more continental; hence the uptick in temperatures.

This model business is certainly not dull!

[Man With Beard]

Ecm ensembles out - probably 70% of runs would produce a maximum in the 90Fs, and 20-30% would be as hot as Friday in the SE.

Daren't look further, not good for my OCD

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

29C shown in the SE for tomorrow so probably nearer 31C then quite a wide area of 30C + for Friday with 33 in the SE so probably nearer 35C, still more runs required to firm up on the storms but similar to the last time could be northern parts of England and possibly Scotland at risk.

[mb018538]

No mention of this insanity from UKMO this morning??  

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

No mention of this insanity from UKMO this morning??  

It was showing hot conditions consistently until yesterday’s 12z, and has now reverted back to something even hotter.

Maybe the Met Office had the forecast right after all? In which case, I’d gladly eat humble pie!

[wellington boot]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful UKMO this morning...

 

The uppers are very high across the South and it all looks quite slack by 144, potential pyrotechnics on offer?

This is exactly the point. Saturday was written off by so many on here a couple of days ago and yesterday's ECM taken as gospel when temperatures looked a little suppressed. Now, with minor tweaks, look at the 850s on this morning's UKMO. Record breaking potential over several days, and hot from Friday right through the weekend...

[Methuselah]

Friday's GFS 00Z predictions looks okay, to me; so extrapolating from my local forecast max of 30C, the UK's max would be 36.8C... And though some might call this 'over analysis', I like to call it what it is: guesswork!

    

And, for further out? All up in the air... the sensitivity that enables Old Man GFS to pick-up on February heatwaves, two-weeks' out, does, IMO, become its major weakness when it comes to its over-zealous short-term flappability...?

    

    

    

    

And the op T850 ends up as one of the 'coldest' members, at 4C... Bloody freezing!

    

    

FWIW, I've discovered a much less traumatic/stressful way of appreciating model runs: divorce them entirely from the weather (if that makes sense) -- over which, they have absolutely no influence!?

Enjoy the upcoming heat and storms!

Edited August 5, 2020 by General Cluster

[Northern Sky]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 168 has +20c back in the SE another very hot run !

Looks very wet from Sunday though. Horrible weather, I much prefer the GFS for next week.

[wellington boot]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm just going to put the UKMO uppers chart T144 here for reference. There's been no other chart like it for this timescale, even in the ensembles. So different to its run last night!

A lot on here describing the UKMO as wildly different today and I'm not seeing it. The 850s might look quite different, but overall the synoptics are very similar and honestly this morning's version looks like a pretty natural 12 hour evolution of yesterday's 12z.

The effect these subtle shifts can have on 850s is of course to be carefully noted, as this potential remains going forward and will affect predicted temperatures from run to run.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

A lot on here describing the UKMO as wildly different today and I'm not seeing it. The 850s might look quite different, but overall the synoptics are very similar and honestly this morning's version looks like a pretty natural 12 hour evolution of yesterday's 12z.

The effect these subtle shifts can have on 850s is of course to be carefully noted, as this potential remains going forward and will affect predicted temperatures from run to run.

I think that that might be down to perspective, WB: we do, after all's said and done, live on an Island that is, on the global scale, about the size of a pinprick, and do, quite naturally tend to dwell on highly-magnified illustrations of the UK... so even the most subtle of 'mole-hills' can seem (to me anyway) like Himalayan-scale mountains?

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

I had a brief twitter chat with Marco P regarding the despondency felt yesterday. 

He was unequivocal, insisting no downgrades from the UKMO perspective, and advised against getting hung up on individual runs. He seemed very confident. I know they take a lot of stick, but he's very approachable. 

(apologies if this isn't deemed specific enough for the model watching thread) 

 

34 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It was showing hot conditions consistently until yesterday’s 12z, and has now reverted back to something even hotter.

Maybe the Met Office had the forecast right after all? In which case, I’d gladly eat humble pie!

They think so

[wellington boot]

11 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Looks very wet from Sunday though. Horrible weather, I much prefer the GFS for next week.

I think it would be tropical more than simply wet. Heat, storms, torrential downpours... Many on here would find it exciting I think. And we could do with the rain around here.

[wellington boot]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I think that that might be down to perspective, WB: we do, after all's said and done, live on an Island that is, on the global scale, about the size of a pinprick, and do, quite naturally tend to dwell on highly-magnified illustrations of the UK... so even the most subtle of 'mole-hills' can seem (to me anyway) like Himalayan-scale mountains?

I know what you're getting at and I think that's right, but I was probably getting at something slightly different. The suggestion was that the 12z UKMO from yesterday was dramatically different from this morning's, and in the context of model analysis on here, you would expect that to signify a dramatic, visually obvious synoptic shift. So lows that weren't there in the last run, or highs rejigged to pull the air from an entirely different direction. 

My view, however, is that this morning's UKMO and yesterday afternoon's look very similar on heights, SLP, and overall shape of evolution. Of course, as I acknowledge in my second paragraph above, even subtle shifts can have significant effects on details like airmass temperature.

[Portsmouth Sun]

Lots of people eating humble pie come the weekend, either the Met Office and ITV weather or the experts on here.  For what it's worth i'm going for hot and increasingly humid in the south. The potential for some big storms come early/mid next week. Overall some decent summer weather to be had. The UKMO holding firm and the GFS randomly giving out various signals just to wind some people up on here. 

[mb018538]

45 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It was showing hot conditions consistently until yesterday’s 12z, and has now reverted back to something even hotter.

Maybe the Met Office had the forecast right after all? In which case, I’d gladly eat humble pie!

I’ll eat the whole humble pie, with a tub of ice cream, squirty cream and a litre of custard! More than happy for this to be correct!

[Paceyboy]

Bring on the humble pie if it leads to hot humid weather!

BBC forecasts seem way too low for this location, Tamworth, no higher than 25c after Friday. 

Surely midlands looking at high 20s sat, mon- weds perhaps.

Hopefully 6z GFS get its act together.