Model output discussion - into July 2020

[johnholmes]

Not using GFS as a start perhaps!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Probably from the 03Z..

Quite embarrassing then really. Who quality controls their output I wonder? Meant to be professionals . . .

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So where did the Met Office get their 36C on Saturday?

Even now, it has 34C for Heathrow on Saturday, and 31C for Sunday.

Very disappointing output for Saturday now from the UKV TBH....

[Mapantz]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Quite embarrassing then really. Who quality controls their output I wonder? Meant to be professionals . . .

I must have missed that conversation.. however, if it involves their app, then it is perfectly acceptable as it's just returning the raw data from the UKV model. But let's not get bogged down in here about the MetOffice, plenty of other threads for that.

[Singularity]

 

That cloud encroaches more and more in the modelling for Friday. It's so far ahead of the surface frontal boundary, a little strange but not impossible.

Certainly not the high temp potential that there was for central parts, if this adjustment holds. It's related to the weekend changes - the boundary doesn't disrupt as efficiently, so it makes more progress eastward and impedes the development of a 'heat low' cyclonic circulation over France.

Looking like an interesting run of days for the far south, as it's not often temps are in the high 20s to low 30s in a N to NE wind there, but otherwise, simply some pleasant weather with generally low-mid 20s away from North Sea coasts.

I don't see this as sorted yet, as it's still 3.5 to 4.5 days away as I said earlier, but there's no denying that the probability of the temp pattern just outlined has increased today.

[Frosty.]

I imagine this would feel quite autumnal at day 10..actually for those in the SE who don’t like heat and had been enduring day after day of heat and humidity followed by night after night of lack of sleep..would actually find day 10 refreshing!..anyway, that’s 9 / 10 days away and subject to many changes in that range! the ECM 12z is mostly very summery for several days further into August which was something July only managed on the last day!!!!!

Edited August 4, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I must have missed that conversation.. however, if it involves their app, then it is perfectly acceptable as it's just returning the raw data from the UKV model. But let's not get bogged down in here about the MetOffice, plenty of other threads for that.

Fair enough, but with all of the models they have access to, you'd think they might think about looking at those before allowing forecasts to go out to millions of people. Just a thought!

[Singularity]

  

I've solved the mystery of which model the Met Office automated forecasts must be using... .

Yeah, okay, it's not going to be JMA - but alongside the ICON 12z earlier this 12z does show that the option remains on the table (and is arguably a bigger vote than ICON).

Briefly, I have to say, I'm shocked and disappointed with the UKMO 12z, not because of what conditions it would bring, but because it's a vast change from the previous run, from one end of the spectrum to the other! Major facepalm moment for that model, regardless of how accurate either of today's runs end up being.

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So where did the Met Office get their 36C on Saturday?

Even now, it has 34C for Heathrow on Saturday, and 31C for Sunday.

The joys of forecasting I’d call it  Thursday last week we were deemed to hit 31c in Birmingham on Friday, we maxed out at 35.1c.....so who knows

[Singularity]

Something to contemplate - though I'm sure it's not as simple as tropical cyclone = stronger, flatter polar jet. It depends on where the TC interacts with the jet stream relative to faster and slower sections.

[Mark wheeler]

13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

  

I've solved the mystery of which model the Met Office automated forecasts must be using... .

Yeah, okay, it's not going to be JMA - but alongside the ICON 12z earlier this 12z does show that the option remains on the table (and is arguably a bigger vote than ICON).

Briefly, I have to say, I'm shocked and disappointed with the UKMO 12z, not because of what conditions it would bring, but because it's a vast change from the previous run, from one end of the spectrum to the other! Major facepalm moment for that model, regardless of how accurate either of today's runs end up being.

I have to agree with regards to the Ukmo , I thought to myself earlier today when I was backing the model that ( I bet it goes T up now I’ve said that ) and Hey Ho it does . Oh well we all know that they all can all  be wrong even at 48 hours out as we all learned a few years ago .  

Edited August 4, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Something to contemplate - though I'm sure it's not as simple as tropical cyclone = stronger, flatter polar jet. It depends on where the TC interacts with the jet stream relative to faster and slower sections.

The models broadly have done a great job with Isaias over the few run suites do I'm feeling ok with that element of it.

Definitely a clear north-south split past Friday.

Also as had been said, Arprge back with the 34-36c maxes on Friday, UKV concentrate heat just a little further east but in a similar range.

I think overall then Friday likely to see a max in that 35-37c range. Beyond that cooler in the north and south, but much less so the closer to the south coast you go.

[Mr Frost]

Don’t get hung up on the UKV charts - 03z and 15z run out to 120 hours. (Saturday is still a long time away and these runs will continue to change at this range)

03z this morning showed 35C for Saturday ...15z has 28C! That looks too low - let’s see what tomorrow says! (Other 6 runs only go out to 54 hours so once we get to Thursday that will give us a better idea with the hourly snapshots)

With regards to Friday I would say 35C is nailed on now - famous last words. 
36/37C not out the question on current output.

Low risk of thunderstorms breaking out also. (As ever just for fun at this range!)

UKV:

ECM:

Edited August 4, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Earthshine]

Seems like the hottest weather in the west is to come next week (for Cardiff)

[Paceyboy]

Not a good UKMO output this evening. Would be nice to be sunny but not likely away from SE.

I had more respect for this model previously and shows it is far from its 'reputation'.

GFS showing a better understanding of this scenario where small changes make a difference - after all it is royalty.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:

Not a good UKMO output this evening. Would be nice to be sunny but not likely away from SE.

At what point in time are you referring to? There will plenty of sunshine in many areas, whether that's unbroken sunshine or sunny spells.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Not a good UKMO output this evening. Would be nice to be sunny but not likely away from SE.

I had more respect for this model previously and shows it is far from its 'reputation'.

GFS showing a better understanding of this scenario where small changes make a difference - after all it is royalty.

One FA cup upset doesn’t make a team great.

Anyway ECM Op may be slightly progressive in how quickly it clears the heat on Sat. Mean looks slower.

[Paceyboy]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

At what point in time are you referring to? There will plenty of sunshine in many areas, whether that's unbroken sunshine or sunny spells.

Compared to what was legendary output before. Although lots more cloud and showers showing sunday onwards, no?

Edited August 4, 2020 by Paceyboy

[Paceyboy]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

One FA cup upset doesn’t make a team great.

Anyway ECM Op may be slightly progressive in how quickly it clears the heat on Sat. Mean looks slower.

But it wins crucial games when it matters? Bit like Arsenal with the most FA cups over the last decade. Not amazing each season but step up when it matters.

[MattStoke]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

One FA cup upset doesn’t make a team great.

Anyway ECM Op may be slightly progressive in how quickly it clears the heat on Sat. Mean looks slower.

The GFS has lower verification stats than the other models, is so often wrong in these setups, ridiculously under estimates temperatures, and changes widely from run to run. The only reason some rate it highly is because it has more publicly available data than any other model and updates more times per day. These claims about it being king, are garbage. Never mind that this event hasn't even arrived yet.

Edited August 4, 2020 by MattStoke

[mountain shadow]

49 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Jeez.  More rain for here. Unbelievable. 

Cannot catch a break.

[clark3r]

Been quite a day with model watching, one thing that is looking quite good is Friday is going to be very hot followed by a very warm night in the south east. I live on the south coast and that looks the best place to keep the warmth over the weekend 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

But it wins crucial games when it matters? Bit like Arsenal with the most FA cups over the last decade. Not amazing each season but step up when it matters.

Given its verification stats are unfavourable in comparison to the likes of ECM, UKMO and GEM and to continue the football analogy (we need more of that in the MO thread  )  I'd say the GFS was more akin to the season where Wigan won the Cup but still got relegated from the Premier League. The occasional victory of a great spot in FI isn't really enough to save it 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Kid Thunder

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Seems like the hottest weather in the west is to come next week (for Cardiff)

It's total pandemonium on the models right now for those of us in southern parts. If we follow all of the ensembles, we literally do not know if we'll get 25C or 35C on many individual days between this Saturday and next Wednesday!! 

I think it'll be a case of ticking days off one by one.

[northwestsnow]

36 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

At what point in time are you referring to? There will plenty of sunshine in many areas, whether that's unbroken sunshine or sunny spells.

Some of the nonsense on this thread is tiresome.

Some of the culprits moaning want to have tried living up here in June and July then they would have something to moan about.