Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Alderc said:

Massive differences all the over the place tonight Arpege has 33C here on Friday while ECM has just 27C. Think I'm just wait for each day to come, wake up and then moan or be happy. Why does it have to be so complicated.....

If it wasn't, would we be here? Never simple I'm afraid!

[Mike Poole]

I wonder if the uncertainty over Friday’s temperature is distracting us from some real heat into next week, ECM T144:

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if the uncertainty over Friday’s temperature is distracting us from some real heat into next week, ECM T144:

I'm not sure whether that would be hot though. The flow looks easterly? Although it's close and better than the UKMO.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Djdazzle]

This is looking better though:

Cool flow cut off.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Frosty.]

However hot it gets, or doesn’t get, the ECM 12z operational is showing some lovely charts..so thankfully august is going to deliver what July clearly didn’t..at least until mid month!..plus even with so called downgrades the SE stays either very warm or hot..so it’s win / win for the SE!!!!!

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mark wheeler]

Rest of the Navgem 

[Djdazzle]

ECM 192 has 20C isotherm brushing the SE corner.

[Zak M]

ECM is pretty good this evening I must say.

[Zak M]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

ECM is pretty good this evening I must say.

Well scratch that!

[mb018538]

Stormy ⛈ 

[Djdazzle]

OK, what's going on here?

ECM192 and 216. Those two charts do not look like they would be 24 hours apart!

Edited August 4, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mb018538]

Very stormy in fact...though at this range a bit speculative.

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Stormy ⛈ 

I'll bank that... 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

OK, what's going on here?

ECM192 and 216. Those two charts do not look like they would be 24 hours apart!

You can see it coming amplified Atlantic ridge often though the reality is less sharp.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if the uncertainty over Friday’s temperature is distracting us from some real heat into next week, ECM T144:

Well no point looking at next week when they cant even get Friday right. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Daniel* said:

You can see it coming amplified Atlantic ridge often though the reality is less sharp.

Hmm - this scenario seems to be against the anomaly charts which suggest HP to the east in the 8-14 day range.

[mb018538]

Clusters this morning also showed an upper trough over the UK at this time

[Djdazzle]

Seems like the ex tropical storm may be playing havoc with the models.

[Man With Beard]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM 192 has 20C isotherm brushing the SE corner.

The heat Sunday to Wednesday is reserved for the southern most 100 miles of the UK, which has become a trend. Southern counties may scrap low 30s Sunday/Monday on the latest ECM, then low to mid 30s across the south Tuesday/Wednesday. Quite a steep drop in temps as you go up to the midlands.

Just one run though.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Seems like the ex tropical storm may be playing havoc with the models.

They never scream stability and settled... But might helpfully disrupt the Jet I guess... 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Clusters this morning also showed an upper trough over the UK at this time

With the Atlantic ridging too as you can see on ECM 12z.

[Djdazzle]

ECM 240 - just for fun it puts us back to summer 2020 square one.

This is where we need @Singularity, @Tamara and @johnholmes to give us an idea where that run came from!

Edited August 4, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mapantz]

A quick glimpse at the temps for Friday and Saturday on the latest 15Z UKV:

 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A quick glimpse at the temps for Friday and Saturday on the latest 15Z UKV:

 

So where did the Met Office get their 36C on Saturday?

Even now, it has 34C for Heathrow on Saturday, and 31C for Sunday.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mapantz]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

So where did the Met Office get their 36C on Saturday?

Probably from the 03Z..