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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
44 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well it looks like another week, another furnace Friday.

image.thumb.png.f420733f6354500f1db0bf3918268129.png
 

Alas beyond this point it appears the vindaloo has been taken off the menu and replaced by a tepid chicken Baltic.....

The moral of the story is winds from the Baltic Sea are never particularly good during a fair chunk of the year. They generally tend to carry cool and cloudy conditions to our shores, especially in the east. Of course they never happen in winter when their cargo would be snow....

The Aperge has a 37’C to the west of London.

BAEED8EC-F2DB-4887-AC95-689FABAA0BA8.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’ll eat my hat if we see that run of temps, even at Heathrow! Marco likes the heat and to ramp though

To be fair, he's right!

I wonder if the UKMO 15Z was a lot hotter than the 12Z, as that's surely what this is based on.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I think the model runs are just picking options out of a hat this evening. Fri-Sat is still 3.5-4.5 days away.

Also, many seem to have forgotten that GFS’ cool bias is not a very hot weather only thing. In fact, I’ve seen some of the largest max temp underestimations from it when there’s a N or NE flow going on - as much as  5*C! Albeit the error reduces slowly but surely with closer proximity to the North Sea coast, to a degree at most right next to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GEFS ensembles are a big improvement tonight by the way - mean 15C 850 line is back to northern England by next Wednesday, and most runs bring the heat back progressively between Monday and Wednesday. Generally a slower removal of heat on Saturday, too.

34A43619-19EF-4710-961E-AB652F9DE016.thumb.png.3baf7b1dda7b392c62f5e24539481f01.png12BD745B-4E81-4A49-803C-0A16B34A51D3.thumb.png.7af8bfd1e497c2a22a16d3b821d2cdfd.png
 

While that is true, just look at the big temperature drop as the wind changes from continental to sea after the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

To be fair, he's right!

I wonder if the UKMO 15Z was a lot hotter than the 12Z, as that's surely what this is based on.

Could be input from UKV in there. That would explain the higher temps for a hotspot.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

34A43619-19EF-4710-961E-AB652F9DE016.thumb.png.3baf7b1dda7b392c62f5e24539481f01.png12BD745B-4E81-4A49-803C-0A16B34A51D3.thumb.png.7af8bfd1e497c2a22a16d3b821d2cdfd.png
 

While that is true, just look at the big temperature drop as the wind changes from continental to sea after the weekend.

I think this is the 06Z chart - the 12Z chart I'm looking at has London over 30C in 13 out of 21 members by Tuesday; that's raw temps, not me adjusting them

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo...

*disclaimer - one run only, not all runs may have the same predictions ;) *

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Always worth remembering not to look at the uppers and assume it will be warmer. If the flow is off the North Sea, it will not be very hot. If it backs to a SE, then it will be. Very fine margins, and much depends on the orientation of the high pressure. We also don't know how the trough to our west will behave after the weekend. If it digs south further, that will frag up the warmer uppers and aid a flow which is has more of a southerly component.

I didn't know there was a UKMO 15z?

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55 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Bizarre logic... So a model which is demonstrably less reliable is preferred because it fires out so many different scenarios that somewhere along the line you can always (retrospectively) find the right one... Ok...

But perhaps I'm just the beneficiary of a summer that is increasingly looking like quite a lovely affair overall down here. And I'm therefore lucky enough not to have lost my mind.

It's a narrow scatter gun and is an excellent model. Just a few percent less accurate on average than the ECM & UKMO which aren't updated as regularly. 

I would agree with you in that your summer is viewed from your backyard with little appreciation of the coastal wind forces. My view is across hundreds of miles of coastline and believe me it's been a woeful summer and the models aren't lending themselves to change. Some days the gusts have been approaching force 7!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Always worth remembering not to look at the uppers and assume it will be warmer. If the flow is off the North Sea, it will not be very hot. If it backs to a SE, then it will be. Very fine margins, and much depends on the orientation of the high pressure. We also don't know how the trough to our west will behave after the weekend. If it digs south further, that will frag up the warmer uppers and aid a flow which is has more of a southerly component.

I didn't know there was a UKMO 15z?

Sorry I was thinking of the UKV (thanks @Singularity)

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Always worth remembering not to look at the uppers and assume it will be warmer. If the flow is off the North Sea, it will not be very hot. If it backs to a SE, then it will be. Very fine margins, and much depends on the orientation of the high pressure. We also don't know how the trough to our west will behave after the weekend. If it digs south further, that will frag up the warmer uppers and aid a flow which is has more of a southerly component.

I didn't know there was a UKMO 15z?

Me either although I was looking at some charts the other day and I noticed this , can someone enlighten us .

edit - Thanks @Singularity that makes sense .

Edited by Mark wheeler
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1 minute ago, DCee said:

It's a narrow scatter gun and is an excellent model. Just a few percent less accurate on average than the ECM & UKMO which aren't updated as regularly. 

 

I sympathise with the wind problem(!) In all seriousness a strong wind, especially off a cool sea, can really ruin an otherwise decent day especially if the shade temps are nothing to write home about (which they haven't been for much of this summer).

Your logic with regards to the GFS is flawed though. You seem to be saying it is the best model, or at the very least excellent yet also acknowledge it isn't as accurate as the UKMO and ECM (which I agree with as it is often proven that way in the verification stats).

I am thankful for the plethora of data the GFS gives us, as well as the regular updates and 'easy to glance at' ensemble suites, but excellent it ain't.

That being said we're entitled to our reasons so I respect your opinion, and it's not like I ignore the GFS either, in fact I still get a frisson of excitement if its ensembles are showing something special even if deep down I know it won't verify that way  

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

No dramas on the ECM 12z so far - raw data showing 34c Friday afternoon, which we all know means 35/36c more likely!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Interesting observation from the ECM for Friday.

Yesterdays 12z, four days away

image.thumb.png.9994fc6feb121f8c11f953606e401be5.png

Today T72

image.thumb.png.ac9fd1b5d02d5edd632f8f92f3e49613.png
 

Quite a difference, yesterday the 16c isotherm was only just arriving, today’s run has this covering a fair portion of England. This has occurred across other models too and is likely going to raise the predicted maxima for Friday and make them more widespread.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
1 hour ago, Summerstorm said:

. Sometimes out West we benefit more from easterlies as we are sheltered by the Pennines,Highlands and Snowdonia for example at the end of June 2018 West was best and all of the max temperatures were in locations like Hawarden,Rhyl,Lossiemouth and Aviemore. 

 

 

Yes but that is quite rare. The west/NW only usually tends to be favoured for the highest temperatures in this sense in late spring and early summer. Mid to late summer a NW/SE split is a lot more common. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM 12z only showing 28c maxima on Saturday....but of a jump down from the 36c Marco and the Met Office are showing!!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, mb018538 said:

ECM 12z only showing 28c maxima on Saturday....but of a jump down from the 36c Marco and the Met Office are showing!!

And this is what annoys me: I should have confidence in the Met Office version, but I don't.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM 12z only showing 28c maxima on Saturday....but of a jump down from the 36c Marco and the Met Office are showing!!

It says 35c but that’s splitting hairs..Can you point me to the 12z ECM Temps for Heathrow? I don’t think we can see that granular detail do we?  don’t forget this time last week we were laughing at some of the output showing 35/36c for Fri. It turned out to be nearly 38c at Heathrow 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

The all important Navgem just beginning to trickle out . So far 

AD77CA5A-130C-4493-8225-F3C1BF2FBF2C.png

6DBF096D-B354-4042-8BB0-AC6753C21D98.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

And this is what annoys me: I should have confidence in the Met Office version, but I don't.

Arpege has 28c in London, 30c south coast (Sussex) on Saturday. It’s only 4 days away now. I honestly don’t see another 36c Saturday at all. BBC going 31, which looks more on the money. Be interesting to refer back to this in a few days time and review!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, mb018538 said:

Arpege has 28c in London, 30c south coast (Sussex) on Saturday. It’s only 4 days away now. I honestly don’t see another 36c Saturday at all. BBC going 31, which looks more on the money. Be interesting to refer back to this in a few days time and review!

Arpege may upgrade a bit nearer the time. BBC tends to use raw data from some model or other. No idea what the Met Office are using. Would be good to ask someone like John Hammond.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It says 35c but that’s splitting hairs..Can you point me to the 12z ECM Temps for Heathrow? I don’t think we can see that granular detail do we?  don’t forget this time last week we were laughing at some of the output showing 35/36c for Fri. It turned out to be nearly 38c at Heathrow 

DDD40FE5-0B93-4C4C-B65A-B0E8A477C12F.thumb.jpeg.2c7ec943d298a8bebc820cc113b53af1.jpeg
72AF2C5D-0909-4ACC-BE3F-BFA4DCB18A37.thumb.jpeg.e00239e8f8275588f74408a395a82f60.jpeg
These are on wxcharts. Friday isn’t the issue - the discrepancy is on Saturday.

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Massive differences all the over the place tonight Arpege has 33C here on Friday while ECM has just 27C. Think I'm just wait for each day to come, wake up and then moan or be happy. Why does it have to be so complicated.....

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