Model output discussion - into July 2020

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

What a disappointment. I will be back in November! Adiós! 

Don’t write it off yet! Icon is still decent, gem still got Saturday and ecm to come!

[Man With Beard]

I've done a few temperature predictions based upon ECM raw data, so, for balance, I thought I'd do one on GFS raw temps too - I'm not as confident as the amount of uplift on GFS temps seems less consistent to me, but this would be my best guess:

Thursday 32C

Friday 36C

Saturday 34C in extreme SE (where there may not be many reporting stations!)

Sunday 28C on S coast

Monday 29C on S coast

Tuesday 31C

Generally a southern thing for hot temperatures after Friday, but still mid 20s in favoured midlands / other favoured spots throughout - not too bad, surely.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Portsmouth Sun said:

Lots of petulance and childish mood swings on here now.  Hopefully peoples comments will improve in a while.   The south, especially with an easterly will be very pleasant regardless.

Not here it won't! Maybe for you on the south coast!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Looking more likely that we will get a crappy cool summer easterly setting in next week with warm upper air and cool at the surface. A few lucky souls may see a bit of warmth, but disappointing for many. 

Thought E'lys would be warmer than that? this more like setup/temps more for late April/May, north sea mist in August? seas warm enough to avoid it? unlike April to June

[Guest]

Come on guys we don't need the wrist-slitting yet! I know the afternoon output isn't perfect for the heat seekers but we need to realise how much the models have struggled resolving this weekend and beyond. We're at Tuesday afternoon. There's plenty of time and beyond next weekend there will plenty of scenarios, many more favourable, that the operationals won't show.

We'll see what the ECM shows later but either way, stay positive! We're leagues ahead of the July rubbish remember!

Edited August 4, 2020 by Kid Thunder
spelelling

[wellington boot]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Look at the uppers and wind flow. The 00z has a very hot Saturday which is wiped away on the 12z. It then sets up an easterly which won't be overly warm.

The 12z output is overall very close to the 00z output. One model is 12 hours later than the other. The charts you're referring to are approximately six days out. Not sure why this is suddenly considered to be the final verdict... Is it just because it allows you to wallow...?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, wellington boot said:

The 12z output is overall very close to the 00z output. One model is 12 hours later than the other. The charts you're referring to are approximately six days out. Not sure why this is suddenly considered to be the final verdict... Is it just because it allows you to wallow...?

Not wallowing and my comments are based on the output - I don't for one moment expect it to verify as shown. But it's not a good trend from the 00z to the 12z if it's heat that you want.

[Guest]

Disappointing, but then a warm settled period was always against us (current trends).

We are all entitled to our opinions and I prefer GFS with many years of experience in interpreting the outputs. Seen all other models fail on important times of the year only to switch, quite dramatically. Sometimes the scatter gun approach is best when averaged.

I've not witnessed more than two days of consistent calm seas this summer since May. I couldn't care about heat, or records being broken, I'm here to plan days around the coast and right now it looks like another wind fest heading into August!

[Summerstorm]

16 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Lots of petulance and childish mood swings on here now.  Hopefully peoples comments will improve in a while.   The south, especially with an easterly will be very pleasant regardless.

The point is though a lot of people don't live in the south. For most people North of the South Midlands there is no significant warmth whatsoever only one warm day and then back to between 20-23 degrees which is pretty standard for the time of year. Also these weather types never benefit those up north as there tends to be a NW SE split. Sometimes out West we benefit more from easterlies as we are sheltered by the Pennines,Highlands and Snowdonia for example at the end of June 2018 West was best and all of the max temperatures were in locations like Hawarden,Rhyl,Lossiemouth and Aviemore. 

So personally I can understand why some people are pretty miffed as this summer has been naff so far so they want to get as much out of August as possible to make up for it. 

Anyway getting back on topic here is the GEM for Monday looks better than the UKMO imo bit more warmth lingering around but not brilliant either. Although should still be warm down south hopefully enough for some above average temps further north as well 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Summerstorm

[wellington boot]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Disappointing, but then a warm settled period was always against us (current trends).

We are all entitled to our opinions and I prefer GFS with many years of experience in interpreting the outputs. Seen all other models fail on important times of the year only to switch, quite dramatically. Sometimes the scatter gun approach is best when averaged.

I've not witnessed more than two days of consistent calm seas this summer since May. I couldn't care about heat, or records being broken, I'm here to plan days around the coast and right now it looks like another wind fest heading into August!

Bizarre logic... So a model which is demonstrably less reliable is preferred because it fires out so many different scenarios that somewhere along the line you can always (retrospectively) find the right one... Ok...

But perhaps I'm just the beneficiary of a summer that is increasingly looking like quite a lovely affair overall down here. And I'm therefore lucky enough not to have lost my mind.

[Mike Poole]

Well, GEM looks good, here for T84, +20C isotherm in business for the SE:

Carbon copy a few days later too, T174:

This is still very much game on, I think.

[Frosty.]

I’m not obsessed with heat, I don’t get much pleasure from sweating buckets like some do but anyway, looking at the Gfs 12z operational there’s certainly plenty of fine weather being shown but also a risk of thundery rain / showers from time to time..much better than the dross which dominated July so I’m a happy bunny!  

 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Well, GEM looks good, here for T84, +20C isotherm in business for the SE:

Carbon copy a few days later too, T174:

This is still very much game on, I think.

Shame it's the GEM though Mike!

Can ECM pull this one out of the fire i wonder!

Interestingly UKMO looks the worst of the output this evening.

[Zak M]

I must be the only one here who likes the UKMO and the GFS! Both look potentially thundery and I'll take that any day.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, GEM looks good, here for T84, +20C isotherm in business for the SE:

Carbon copy a few days later too, T174:

This is still very much game on, I think.

Not overly hot again. Just look at the massive heat over the channel. North Sea heat killer in full effect.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Shame it's the GEM though Mike!

Can ECM pull this one out of the fire i wonder!

Interestingly UKMO looks the worst of the output this evening.

GEM is decent since its upgrade last year.  I reckon ECM will follow it tonight!  

Good time to post the verification stats, day 5:

GEM just pipping GFS, although note the new GFS seems a little better.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Not overly hot again. Just look at the massive heat over the channel. North Sea heat killer in full effect.

Yuk. We need to avoid the wind coming from that direction.

[Summerstorm]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Not overly hot again. Just look at the massive heat over the channel. North Sea heat killer in full effect.

Although if you add a few degrees as usually the models tend to under do temps then the SE may be touching 30 and other areas may hit Mid 20s which could be pleasant provided the sun comes out otherwise temps will be suppressed I would imagine. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not overly hot again. Just look at the massive heat over the channel. North Sea heat killer in full effect.

no haar hopefully in Aug? can last gone 2pm here in May/June

[Captain Shortwave]

Well it looks like another week, another furnace Friday.

 

Alas beyond this point it appears the vindaloo has been taken off the menu and replaced by a tepid chicken Baltic.....

The moral of the story is winds from the Baltic Sea are never particularly good during a fair chunk of the year. They generally tend to carry cool and cloudy conditions to our shores, especially in the east. Of course they never happen in winter when their cargo would be snow....

Edited August 4, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[kold weather]

Still looking very much like a split, with the north not getting much apart from maybe Friday.

The south, particularly in the SE will have what looks like a hot 5-7 days coming up. 

Arprge is back to 36c on Friday and it utterly nailed last Friday.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Still looking very much like a split, with the north not getting much apart from maybe Friday.

The south, particularly in the SE will have what looks like a hot 5-7 days coming up. 

Arprge is back to 36c on Friday and it utterly nailed last Friday.

The shorter range models like Arpege, Arome and Ukv are fantastic at short range. They put the others to shame, and nail it time after time.

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Thursday is having a bit of a wobble on the models at the moment.

Still would not rule out a 30C though - somewhere like East Malling, Kent for example. (Also Heathrow ect ect)

Here is the current UKV’s take on it:

Thursday 12:00

15:00:

 

18:00

 

Cloud could be an issue and some patchy rain about in places - might not even exist though when the day arrives! 

Still looks a lovely spell of late Summer weather for the SE - hot and plenty of sunshine. (Usual stuff)
Warm and fairly sunny from Thursday to Sunday for the NW.

Currently 15C up here and approaching 40mm of rainfall so far today...not forgetting those SSW gusts of 40 mph. 

Have a good night everyone!

Jesus what a wreck Thursdays looking here......Looks like a cloe but no cigar type event in generally. Shouldn't be a surprise with the exception of the 12ECM last night its been a gradual backtrack since Saturday night......

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm getting a bit confused here.. There seems to be far to many hindering on every operational run. I can't see how some can say we are left with a crappy Estly!! Plenty of places away from the Eastern side would see very decent conditions with that set up.. Central/Western areas more especially. Unless there is a conveyor belt of Atlantic Lows are about to rain down on us then I'm happy. Worth noting the final 3rd of the month still looks decent. No dramas from me. 

[mb018538]

I’ll eat my hat if we see that run of temps, even at Heathrow! Marco likes the heat and to ramp though