Model output discussion - into July 2020

[clark3r]

Seems like we are heading for just 1 very hot day rest period warm to very warm, let’s see how gfs ukmo and ecm see things 

[Guest]

ICON out and tomorrow and especially Thursday are very underwhelming, only the extreme gets in warmth on Thursday on it. From then on its hot, 33C on Friday (slightly down) but big improvements through the weekend and early next week with 15-18C upper over a large portion of England. Also looks a very thundery and humid setup early next week.  A good start to the 12z's IMO (Apart from Thursday)

Edited August 4, 2020 by Guest

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

ICON out and tomorrow and especially Thursday are very underwhelming, only the extreme gets in warmth on Thursday on it. From then on its hot, 33C on Friday (slightly down) but big improvements through the weekend and early next week with 15-18C upper over a large portion of England. Also looks a very thundery and humid setup early next week.  A good start to the 12z's IMO (Apart from Thursday)

Is gfs 12z further west with the heat friday into saturday?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Is gfs 12z further west with the heat friday into saturday?

At first glance, yes.

[Dominic Carey]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

At first glance, yes.

Is that good or bad for heat?

[mb018538]

Looking more like a one day wonder - GFS quickly eroding the heat into Saturday too, with Kent just about making 30c and most areas 24-25c.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is gfs 12z further west with the heat friday into saturday?

Yes at 06Z on Saturday the 15C isotherm is about 50-70miles further west and north - Good start......

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Looking more like a one day wonder - GFS quickly eroding the heat into Saturday too, with Kent just about making 30c and most areas 24-25c.

It's slightly better than the 6z though. Baby steps!

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful UKMO this evening...

Doesn't get much better for August..

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful UKMO this evening...

Doesn't get much better for August..

 

Doesn't that say Monday 3rd?

[SizzlingHeat]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Bank , I have faith the good ole Ukmo 

Yesterday 12z

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Yesterday 12z

Boo 

[Man With Beard]

Well I think we're now at the point where differences between models are going to be too small to analyse. The UKMO this evening has made more of the "wave" to the north, and the GFS has made less of it. They both land in roughly the same spot. 

I think we've reached the point where a crazy hot Friday is confirmed, but Saturday is a SE corner only hot day, and not 100% guaranteed yet at that. Chances are, also, that if you don't have the heat on Saturday, you won't have it on Sunday either. But you may get a very pleasantly warm or very warm weekend all the same. Still the chance of a build-back of hear early next week.

 

 

[mb018538]

MetO run this morning appears to have sadly been an outlier. Friday is nailed on as hot now, Saturday just about in the SE corner, Sunday looks cooler, and with an easterly setting in by Monday, I don’t think it’ll be overly warm then either.

[Mr Frost]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful UKMO this evening...

Doesn't get much better for August..

 

Yes it was looking good on yesterday’s chart mate. 

Today for the 9th.

I would describe that as pleasant! Roughly 20/21C max for Oldham and 19/20C up here! 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Djdazzle]

UKMO capitulates. Very disappointing.

[Man With Beard]

A record-breaking ARPEGE - but of a different kind!

UK record high minima broken on Friday night:

[wellington boot]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

UKMO capitulates. Very disappointing.

Sorry?? It's barely different to its 00z run...

Edited August 4, 2020 by wellington boot

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

UKMO capitulates. Very disappointing.

 

Looking more likely that we will get a crappy cool summer easterly setting in next week with warm upper air and cool at the surface. A few lucky souls may see a bit of warmth, but disappointing for many. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, wellington boot said:

Sorry?? It's barely different to it's 00z run...

Look at the uppers and wind flow. The 00z has a very hot Saturday which is wiped away on the 12z. It then sets up an easterly which won't be overly warm.

[Djdazzle]

ECM will no doubt complete the show later. Only in the UK can this happen. Maybe it won't!

So many times our luck is laughable - you couldn't make it up.

Edited August 4, 2020 by Djdazzle

[northwestsnow]

Sorry chaps, I didn't realize that was yesterday's ukmo,doh!!

[SizzlingHeat]

What a disappointment. I will be back in November! Adiós! 

[Portsmouth Sun]

Lots of petulance and childish mood swings on here now.  Hopefully peoples comments will improve in a while.   The south, especially with an easterly will be very pleasant regardless.

[Mr Frost]

45 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ICON out and tomorrow and especially Thursday are very underwhelming, only the extreme gets in warmth on Thursday on it. From then on its hot, 33C on Friday (slightly down) but big improvements through the weekend and early next week with 15-18C upper over a large portion of England. Also looks a very thundery and humid setup early next week.  A good start to the 12z's IMO (Apart from Thursday)

Thursday is having a bit of a wobble on the models at the moment.

Still would not rule out a 30C though - somewhere like East Malling, Kent for example. (Also Heathrow ect ect)

Here is the current UKV’s take on it:

Thursday 12:00

15:00:

 

18:00

 

Cloud could be an issue and some patchy rain about in places - might not even exist though when the day arrives! 

Still looks a lovely spell of late Summer weather for the SE - hot and plenty of sunshine. (Usual stuff)
Warm and fairly sunny from Thursday to Sunday for the NW.

Currently 15C up here and approaching 40mm of rainfall so far today...not forgetting those SSW gusts of 40 mph. 

Have a good night everyone!

Edited August 4, 2020 by Mr Frost