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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This threads gone to sh it this morning.

 

All this GFS nonsence

It’s ridiculous Steve - people who pop up with one post saying GFS is king. Trolling at its best!

I wouldn’t even mind if it was true - there has been more of a convergence rather than other models moving towards the GFS. There is a huge scatter in the ensembles.

I will remind people again that the GFS and ALL of its ensembles were wrong at T96 just a couple of months ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
16 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

A collapse of potential, typified by the spoiler from GFS shows again that it is top model.

You can have your ECM/UKMO combo all you like but when GFS spots the crucial changes it shows its pedigree.

Outside of the south east it is back to average for Saturday although potentially very warm again first half of next week.

Weve gone from a high pressure 1020 - 1025mb in the perfect position and orientation just to the east and modelling a week of high 20s low 30s in much of central and south uk to blink and you miss it, again. The rest of August will be trash just like models are after 144 hours.

 

Top model? You are either sponsored by the GFS or have no idea what you are talking about. 

ECM always verifies as the best, followed by UKMO. GEM has even been better than the GFS for much of this year, which is now around 3rd or 4th best. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Top model? You are either sponsored by the GFS or have no idea what you are talking about. 

ECM always verifies as the best, followed by UKMO. GEM has even been better than the GFS for much of this year, which is now around 3rd or 4th best. 

Don’t rise to it mate.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Still got 24 hours before the surface low exiting new foundland engages with the upper flow, and another 72 hours to see how far down in the Atlantic it digs, that will then give us an idea on how much amplification we will see. We could still end up with some form of cut off low yet. 96 hours is a long time and there will be further swings and roundabouts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Before I went to bed I thought maybe other models would follow gfs and that has happened, still 35/36 Friday, possible 33 Saturday, then up in the air, I still think Saturdays heat could be upgraded and Sunday onwards is far from sorted 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, clark3r said:Before I went to bed I thought maybe other models would follow gfs and that has happened, still 35/36 Friday, possible 33 Saturday, then up in the air, I still think Saturdays heat could be upgraded and Sunday onwards is far from sorted 

I don’t think it’s as simple as following GFS - it’s been more of a convergence, which to be fair is what usually happens. GFS is less progressive than last night’s runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire

Hi guys the ecm ensemble 2m temp mean for Southampton goes like this Friday- 30c Saturday 29c Sunday 27c Monday 27c Tuesday 28c. This is far from over. Today's 12z will be crucial 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
19 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Still got 24 hours before the surface low exiting new foundland engages with the upper flow, and another 72 hours to see how far down in the Atlantic it digs, that will then give us an idea on how much amplification we will see. We could still end up with some form of cut off low yet. 96 hours is a long time and there will be further swings and roundabouts. 

Especially if the Low which absorbs Iisias becomes part of the action late weekend....

032352_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

Im not doubting that the European and Uk models get it right, every model has its day. However, when it comes to the crunch in a scenario where small changes are crucial ones and dictate the direction of travel, GFS leads the way.

I am not trolling and am not bringing this thread down. I love the input from those with the knowledge and their analysis however there is distinct appetite to ignore the realistic outcome and ramp up the prospects.

I have been following the models and this forum since 2007 and see promising situations fall flat time and time again, with the euros being lauded and other models discounted.

I am of an optimistic outlook with things but to go from a heatwave to one day of hot weather north of Banbury, takes the pee!

Edited by Paceyboy
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This threads gone to sh it this morning.

 

All this GFS nonsence

Just two more on the ignore sheet Steve!

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Aprege 

68381947-7BEB-438A-AEEE-63D3001A8B45.png

9ECE7E59-471C-43B4-BB9E-21924849565A.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The ECM ensembles for Saturday are still about 60% hot for central/eastern England, though this was about 80% last night.

Normally I'd trust the op at such a short timescale, but given the sudden shift and the UKMO remaining hot, I'm inclined not to this time.

The 12Z runs will surely nail Saturday - it's getting too close.

Ensembles for Sunday - surprisingly, more hot ensembles than we've seen for a few days: 30 out of 51 ensembles would probably give a temperature above 30C in either southern or eastern England, and a small number still mid 30s.

Perhaps fewer hot runs on Monday but, as with previous runs, an increasing number of runs bring the heat back in on Tuesday. A small cluster of members look like last night's op run, though an equal amount return to what I call "averagely warm".

Finally, northern areas (i.e. north of Lancs/Yorkshire). Friday could see high 20s on the east side. Even here, uncertainty on Saturday. Generally low 20s at best - a few runs in mid 20s for certain areas, but depending on the set up this could either be north west or north east! Beyond this, high teens/low 20s Sunday/Monday, maybe mid 20s in favoured spots on either Tuesday or Wednesday (not on all ensembles), hotter runs than this are outliers. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
29 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

UKMO is still looking very hot until Monday. Perhaps less so for the north though.

How good is the UKMO at modelling shortwaves?

Very good by T96. Which is why I don't feel I can reach a conclusion yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
18 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Im not doubting that the European and Uk models get it right, every model has its day. However, when it comes to the crunch in a scenario where small changes are crucial ones and dictate the direction of travel, GFS leads the way.

I am not trolling and am not bringing this thread down. I love the input from those with the knowledge and their analysis however there is distinct appetite to ignore the realistic outcome and ramp up the prospects.

I have been following the models and this forum since 2007 and see promising situations fall flat time and time again, with the euros being lauded and other models discounted.

I am of an optimistic outlook with things but to go from a heatwave to one day of hot weather north of Banbury, takes the pee!

I have to say I’ve also been on this forum for years and if I’ve learnt anything from the models ( runs ) is that if the Ukmo doesn’t budge it needs to be taken extremely seriously and is likely to verify especially at short ranges and certainly over the GFS . I’ve seen it copious of times especially in winter when all other models especially the gfs have shown easterlies and the Ukmo doesn’t and the Ukmo comes out on top . nothing is certain but I know where my money is and it’s not GFS

Edited by Mark wheeler
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16 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Im not doubting that the European and Uk models get it right, every model has its day. However, when it comes to the crunch in a scenario where small changes are crucial ones and dictate the direction of travel, GFS leads the way.

Nope.

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Very good by T96. Which is why I don't feel I can reach a conclusion yet.

Lets hope UKMO is on the money. 

Potential for up 30c temps encompassing the midlands and not just the south east for a few days not just Friday.

The maximum potential for extent of heat seems to be to Thursday 13th all output considered.

Breakdown to lower pressure and cooler temps would not seem to fit in with the 6-10 day and 10-14 day anomaly charts.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
12 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

 

I am not trolling and am not bringing this thread down. I love the input from those with the knowledge and their analysis however there is distinct appetite to ignore the realistic outcome and ramp up the prospects.

I have been following the models and this forum since 2007 and see promising situations fall flat time and time again, with the euros being lauded and other models discounted.

I do see where you're coming from, but, unlike when chasing winter charts, we've got rather accustomed in recent years to plume events being continually upgraded nearer the time rather than downgraded, would you agree!

I started posting ECM predicted temperatures last summer in the run up to the hottest day - I remember wondering if I really should post predictions of 38C or 39C on a D6 chart, wondering if it was too much hype, yet that's what the ECM was suggesting (with the adjusted raw), and it was bang on. Last week, it was miles *under* the eventual temperature - they all were - and the GFS was even more wrong. Do we just naturally remember disappointments more than successes?

So whilst I realise the ECM's more outlandish charts of the past 48 hours were perhaps not the most likely final outcome (and there are still plenty of ensembles that go that way, so don't write it off!), I think it is worth posting what the chart says whatever, and then we can all look back and see if it was onto something. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
7 minutes ago, Kid Thunder said:

Nope.

GFS regularly spot the trends at important times (when extraordinary whether compared to UK average is afoot)

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM ensembles for Saturday are still about 60% hot for central/eastern England, though this was about 80% last night.

Normally I'd trust the op at such a short timescale, but given the sudden shift and the UKMO remaining hot, I'm inclined not to this time.

The 12Z runs will surely nail Saturday - it's getting too close.

Ensembles for Sunday - surprisingly, more hot ensembles than we've seen for a few days: 30 out of 51 ensembles would probably give a temperature above 30C in either southern or eastern England, and a small number still mid 30s.

Perhaps fewer hot runs on Monday but, as with previous runs, an increasing number of runs bring the heat back in on Tuesday. A small cluster of members look like last night's op run, though an equal amount return to what I call "averagely warm".

Finally, northern areas (i.e. north of Lancs/Yorkshire). Friday could see high 20s on the east side. Even here, uncertainty on Saturday. Generally low 20s at best - a few runs in mid 20s for certain areas, but depending on the set up this could either be north west or north east! Beyond this, high teens/low 20s Sunday/Monday, maybe mid 20s in favoured spots on either Tuesday or Wednesday (not on all ensembles), hotter runs than this are outliers. 

 

Whats the raw temps for the midlands saturday?

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11 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

GFS regularly spot the trends at important times (when extraordinary whether compared to UK average is afoot)

No, occasionally the GFS spots a trend well in FI and it takes other models time to catch up. This isn't one of those scenarios.

At the moment, nothing has verified and all I see is uncertainty from late weekend onwards. GFS has already started to back down from its overly progressive outlook. ECM is flip-flopping and only the UKMO seems to be consistent.

This isn't the time for back-patting of the GFS or any other model. Not yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
15 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Lets hope UKMO is on the money. 

Potential for up 30c temps encompassing the midlands and not just the south east for a few days not just Friday.

The maximum potential for extent of heat seems to be to Thursday 13th all output considered.

Breakdown to lower pressure and cooler temps would not seem to fit in with the 6-10 day and 10-14 day anomaly charts.

 

GFS has a weekend affair only - as for the mid of the week no way - a bit like last weekend - unfortunately me and the lad have to go to Bournemouth this week - wish us luck :closedeyes:

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