Model output discussion - into July 2020

[summer blizzard]

The upside at least is that pressure is pretty high over the weekend so humidity should be lower. The easterly off the sea should also make it feel cooler away from the south so probably only Tuesday will feel really bad on the Euro here. Also more storm chances monday-wednesday as pressure falls a bit.

[qwertyK]

I've just seen this thread - is there really a chance of the record being challenged? Not seeing any of these models translate into weather forecasts

Edited August 3, 2020 by qwertyK

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, qwertyK said:

I've just seen this thread - is there really a chance of the record being challenged? Not seeing any of these models translate into weather forecasts

Only a slim chance in the ‘reliable’ timeframe. Likely to be some noteworthy temperatures anyway.

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Only a slim chance in the ‘reliable’ timeframe. Likely to be some noteworthy temperatures anyway.

I can see 38C max but it seems liek it will just be a few days of prolonged 30C heat rather than a sudden spike and things go back to normal. Northolt and Heathrow have just two days of 30C/+30C heat now. 

Edited August 3, 2020 by qwertyK

[Man With Beard]

The ECM ensembles provide hot possibilities, particularly here on the south coast, but they are in general a bit more sane after Sunday.

The main picture - getting hotter and hotter until Saturday, some sort of cooldown on Sunday, and an attempt to reheat early next week. It must be stressed that the Sunday cooldown could be more drastic than on the op run, and very few runs reheat to the extent the op run does. So while the pattern looks well defined, the temperatures are far from decided post-Saturday.

However, one surprise - there are a lot of ensembles that are actually hotter than the op for Friday and Saturday.

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM ensembles provide hot possibilities, particularly here on the south coast, but they are in general a bit more sane after Sunday.

The main picture - getting hotter and hotter until Saturday, some sort of cooldown on Sunday, and an attempt to reheat early next week. It must be stressed that the Sunday cooldown could be more drastic than on the op run, and very few runs reheat to the extent the op run does. So while the pattern looks well defined, the temperatures are far from decided post-Saturday.

However, one surprise - there are a lot of ensembles that are actually hotter than the op for Friday and Saturday.

 

Doesn't surprise me about Friday, the ECM has a relatively cloudy day on Thursday like Arprge and that does limit what can be done the day after, especially as it's not quite as extreme airflow as last Friday.

As per normal, the middle ground is most likely the answer, with the closet to the south you are the better the chance of 

A: keeping the heat

Or

B: retapping into it if it does depart.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

^^ speaking of a cool down latest wrf nmm eu has 2C 850 hpa into Scotland and the 0C 850 hpa into the western isles on Saturday 

[qwertyK]

Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

^^ speaking of a cool down latest wrf nmm eu has 2C 850 hpa into Scotland and the 0C 850 hpa into the western isles on Saturday 

Looking noticebaly cooler in the south too compared to other models

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

^^ speaking of a cool down latest wrf nmm eu has 2C 850 hpa into Scotland and the 0C 850 hpa into the western isles on Saturday 

my god that model is sick in the head

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

^^ speaking of a cool down latest wrf nmm eu has 2C 850 hpa into Scotland and the 0C 850 hpa into the western isles on Saturday 

Pretty sure that model uses GFS data.

[Mapantz]

Just now, qwertyK said:

Looking noticebaly cooler in the south too compared to other models

The UKV isn't to be sniffed at..

[Guest]

Just now, qwertyK said:

Looking noticebaly cooler in the south too compared to other models

Its in the GFS camp, just a few hours slower in clearing the heat. 

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV isn't to be sniffed at..

So any max temp could actually be outside of London this time, makes a change I guess, looks like Kent will be hotter. 

[matt111]

Just now, Mapantz said:

The UKV isn't to be sniffed at..

Warmest temperatures on or near the south coast. Presume the flow is more E or NE on there?

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Warmest temperatures on or near the south coast. Presume the flow is more E or NE on there?

Northerly for much of the South. An offshore wind in that set up, Southern coastal areas would see some pretty high temps if it panned out like that. Might even break my max record!

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Warmest temperatures on or near the south coast. Presume the flow is more E or NE on there?

I doubt If Kent would be so hot if that  were the case.

Edited August 3, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Guest]

Too much excitement for me this evening, sleep needed as lots of swim shorts to buy in the morning if the output still remotely resembles this evenings ECM, GEM & ICON. 

[matt111]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

I doubt If Kent would be so hot if that was the case.

Yes as @Mapantz posted it's a northerly so no onshore winds 

[summer blizzard]

16 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Looking noticebaly cooler in the south too compared to other models

NMM is just a mesoscale model that uses GFS data.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

NMM is just a mesoscale model that uses GFS data.

Would I be right in saying that the GFS was left with egg on its face for July last year at a similar time frame? I’m sure there was a farce on the lead up to it. 

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Indeed it is a outlier 

 

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

.... and it is a warm outlier for days 6-9.  Still looking ruddy hot though!

Edit - Daniel beat me to it!

Has the mean been trending upwards over the last couple of days? 

Someone more knowledgeable than myself will post the anomaly charts... All shall become a little clearer. 

(This place needs an algorithm just to decipher between all the excitement and catastrophes of potential upgrades and downgrades, whilst we hang on individual runs... Myself included) 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking at the EC46 highlights the very warm/Hot conditions later this week, into next week we have High Pressure extending NE sitting just off scandinavia, could be a risk of some thundery Conditions devoloping towards the South at times, and I would say warm and humid could be a decent shout.. Further on we appear to be devoloping a N/S split with Azores ridging further south and pleasent conditions looking increasingly likely as we approach the final 3rd of the month.. Further North does look more changeable at times and cooler also.. So just a ruff summary from me thus evening... Happy Heat chasing folks.. And some absolutely brilliant posts from you guys today... Much more appealing than reading the Exeter 4 week updates..

Edited August 3, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Earthshine]

Regardless of the outcome the past couple of days have been brilliant for model watching.  Big thanks to all keeping us informed with the latest developments!

[SizzlingHeat]

GfS 18z is still not giving up though and clears the heat by Saturday! GFS sticks to its guns 

[DaveL]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV isn't to be sniffed at..

18 in the North Wales lowlands, 35 in Kent!