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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

GFS is jumper or cardigan weather in the shade after Saturday. ICON is escaping to the shade whilst swimming in a pool of ice cubes. Massive massive differences. 

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

You really wouldn’t bank on GFS though! This will be yet another cold / unsettled outlier. Almost farcical.

If its not the most rapid of the ensembles to clear the heat through I'd be very surprised. Already out to just 90hrs you can tell GEM isn't going to blow-up the shortwave....

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The 12z GFS is a bit of an eye-opener for me:

gfseuw-2-108.thumb.png.94f66e735c2e84839303496d14309100.png

Notice that ppn over NE England/SE Scotland? Those would be thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms.

In these kinds of setups, there will usually be corrections south and east of where these storms will be, so it's possible that places like southern/eastern England could be affected, although at this stage it's way too far out to be certain. One to watch I would say.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well if the GFS is correct, the ECM will latch onto it later.

I'm not making any calls either way as both scenarios are plausible. Though I suspect the ECM will most likely follow the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The difference between the UKMO and GFS at just T96 is laughable.

But the UKMO is rarely wrong at T96 - T144 yes, T120 sometimes, but T96, no.

The GFS, on the other hand, can only be trusted with Atlantic lows at T72.

I never trust the GFS in these situations. It’s hopeless. The GFSP is at least an improvement but the UKMO and ECM are far more reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The difference between the UKMO and GFS at just T96 is laughable.

But the UKMO is rarely wrong at T96 - T144 yes, T120 sometimes, but T96, no.

The GFS, on the other hand, can only be trusted with Atlantic lows at T72.

Is there stats to show verification success from the models? Or a breakdown of success throughout the seasons? I seem to recall the GFS repeatedly ad nauseum wanting to bring the Atlantic in for days on end in summer 2013, and constantly being pushed back and having a very poor run of form! ECM from my decade of model watching seems to perform much better especially in the summer months from my rough guesstimates. 

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Good news, GEM is much more akin to ICON, in fact its almost a perfect match at T126, and closer UMKO. Without seeing the uppers I'd take a punt UMKO is probably 75% the way towards ICON/GEM and a long way away from GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Good news, GEM is much more akin to ICON, in fact its almost a perfect match at T126, and closer UMKO. Without seeing the uppers I'd take a punt UMKO is probably 75% the way towards ICON/GEM and a long way away from GFS

GEM keeps the real heat (30s+) SE of about Birmingham. Looking like a SE focussed event and for that I'm thankful.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Aperge surface air temperatures for 8am Friday. I’m guessing the chart for the afternoon may be a touch on the warm side.

arpegeuk-31-102-0_hyg3.png

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Aperge surface air temperatures for 8am Friday. I’m guessing the chart for the afternoon may be a touch on the warm side.

arpegeuk-31-102-0_hyg3.png

It's got a small spot of 35c too in the far SE...

arpegeuk-41-99-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

It's got a small spot of 35c too in the far SE...

arpegeuk-41-99-0.png

LOL So Birmingham would be 30 at 8am and 29 at 5pm. Yeah right

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Aperge surface air temperatures for 8am Friday. I’m guessing the chart for the afternoon may be a touch on the warm side.

arpegeuk-31-102-0_hyg3.png

That's not the 8am temps; it's the maximum during the last 12 hours which would run 7pm to 7am in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

It's got a small spot of 35c too in the far SE...

arpegeuk-41-99-0.png

I was expecting it to be higher, to be honest.

it has 32’C for 8am Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
10 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Nervy couple of hours as we wait for the ecm please do not go Pete tong for Saturday.

Aye, looks a repeat of last week on GFS, hot Friday, then fresher from the west for Saturday

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

ARPEGE is quite a bit cooler for Thursday on this 12z run, more in line with the other models.

About 3-4c cooler than the 06z/00z run. I'm guessing Friday will be similarly cooler than it would have been, though still very much on the hot side of things.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Also the GFS seems really rather quick and progressive on shooting the heat east...however whilst many dismissing it, it is worth remembering the same already HAS occurred once, so there is a precedence for a quick heat up and then blast eastwards, no guarantee this evolves into anything more yet.

Most other models thus far though suggest the GFS is being over keen in pushing things eastwards, and that is a well known bias of the GFS. It'll be interesting to see where it sits within its own ensemble mean.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I think Arpege upped its temperature as last week went on.

It’s a bold call by the Met Office going for 37C. I still suspect they were using old data.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also the GFS seems really rather quick and progressive on shooting the heat east...however whilst many dismissing it, it is worth remembering the same already HAS occurred once, so there is a precedence for a quick heat up and then blast eastwards, no guarantee this evolves into anything more yet.

Most other models thus far though suggest the GFS is being over keen in pushing things eastwards, and that is a well known bias of the GFS. It'll be interesting to see where it sits within its own ensemble mean.

There is a definite shift in the ensemble mean around day 5. Doesn't mean it's correct though. I find the GEFS really quite useless.

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