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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Is the flow off the N sea from 144 I cant quite tell its marginal between 25 and 35

Yep, that undercut sets in again.

5E032A73-B58D-4BEE-A1FE-AD62BA5FC748.thumb.png.034a7542b1371c9462aa62a79dea8232.png

850s of 18-20c across the SW....
Max temps in the mid 20s (26-28c)

E3C54776-082A-402B-8619-EF362FA04442.thumb.jpeg.734fdaf5489846c0217a9230273447cd.jpeg

Disappointing if this comes off. Mid teens in the north.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

You couldn’t make it up At ECM144 / 168 everything is in the perfect position so that the U.K. benefits least from the amazing setup.

Would only take a tiny tweak though to get back the very high temps.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I don't understand why temperatures need to be blast furnace level for people to feel satisfied. Mid 20s and settled is perfectly acceptable and useable.

Some people like the heat? Mid 20s is fine by me too, but if we’ve got very hot upper air over the UK, I want it hot please!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I don't understand why temperatures need to be blast furnace level for people to feel satisfied. Mid 20s and settled is perfectly acceptable and useable.

It is CC, and I wouldn’t like it day in, day out. But some of us like unusual synoptics and noteworthy weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Morning all

UKV delivers 32C on Thursday and still sticking with 35C on Friday - subject to change at this range.

Thursday 12:00 and 15:00

C93A9584-AFA7-40FC-BC89-AC559C865BCF.thumb.png.36af0f23d87936dec5d6bbbf775ea26a.pngC96E4B83-6713-46DB-8E39-64E44316AF9C.thumb.png.61ed0acba424803d4280244f952fb866.png

Friday 12:00 and 15:00

20B32426-AD03-4176-AC43-F40496AA1D43.thumb.png.358ce9238b15c38c04361f7d20b79b6f.png015B63D8-AA2D-48F5-A89F-0A7208B044D3.thumb.png.1978ced5c9b1f2258743a0743f1c53ba.png

In the short term...lovely Autumn day up here tomorrow with coastal gales and heavy rain! 

E42F5B56-C6E1-482E-AADE-7742729354E8.thumb.png.6b3ad39c00f42f3947afcab0a6c43459.pngBFF97162-0728-43F4-9075-F5459601DB03.thumb.png.341861096b71cf8f97603842ad7b0529.png
 

Have a good day everyone!

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Djdazzle said:

It is CC, and I wouldn’t like it day in, day out. But some of us like unusual synoptics and noteworthy weather!

Oh I get that, I like interesting weather too...I just can't see the appeal in sweltering sleepless nights and horrible stuffy days you have to work in. 

The ECM looks fine for the majority of England to my eyes (E and NE coasts might be a tad chilly).

Given the alternative, I.e relentless rain, I don't think the outlook can be sniffed at. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

From my point of view, I'm happy with the ECM. Thought it might have continued the acceleration towards barely a hot day here (Friday hardly gets the 15C 850hpa line in here on the GFS). However it's done the opposite.

Many runs yesterday had Saturday only hot in the SE so were only ever '3 hot days' if you were in the E/SE. However this run is better for the SW and W, who have often had to sit and watch talk of 'hot/very hot days' in the E/SE as if it's affecting the whole country.
Better for potential longevity too.

An easterly undercut would disappointing especially further east.. what happened to those 'hot easterlies' we used to occasionally get?
 

36 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Friday 12:00 and 15:00

20B32426-AD03-4176-AC43-F40496AA1D43.thumb.png.358ce9238b15c38c04361f7d20b79b6f.png015B63D8-AA2D-48F5-A89F-0A7208B044D3.thumb.png.1978ced5c9b1f2258743a0743f1c53ba.png
 

Edit: this shows why I didn't like the trend on many other models. Friday, what looked the most locked in hot day for many is only 'very warm' (or cooler further north) if you're not SE of a line from roughly Lincolnshire to Southampton. 

Hopefully the ECM is right in some form in that the hot airmass backs west again, but perhaps with a lighter easterly at the surface.

Not that the weather wouldn't be lovely in the mid 20's, but my interest in weather is over-riding what I'd find most comfortable, after all on this side of the country we've had nothing notable from the 'record breaking' plumes that central-eastern areas have seen in the last 5 years.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Want to see the NW-SE divide in full glory, look at those UKV temp charts, only a 20 degree temp difference!  

 

Typical to see an undercut in height of summer rather than winter. Whilst cutting off the heat supply, a more better profile for longer term longevity of warm settled weather than the precarious plume. In winter it's usually the short lived arctic northerly shot rather than the slider undercut.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I’d take the ECM as long as the undercut disappears. That HP needs to be a couple of hundred miles further east. And shaped slightly differently.

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Can't complain at the ECM this morning, I'm under 15C+ uppers for at least 5 days from Friday and even with the undercut would likely see 30C plus here on the south coast for each of those 5days. Haven't managed a 5day 30C stretch here since Aug 95....

GFS again going for a much cooler solution than the majority of its ensembles once again while GEMs temp profile is similar to ECM although it clears the heat a quicker on Saturday. 

Re Friday probably looks like we're going to see a max around 35C, uppers are a touch lower than last Friday and slightly flatter jet does look like preventing the highest uppers and hottest surface conditions advecting northwards. Still should be very pleasant. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Fabulous 00z runs if you are wanting summer weather ..

Temps in the main warm to hot on EC,GFS is another outlier surprise surprise..

A decent first half of August looks a good shout..

ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

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Morning -

Location wise for me the ECM is amazing today with a sustained hot spell, & for the UK as a whole the ECM is the best bet. 

The divergence between ECM > GFS ( which incidentally keeps sticking out as a cold outlier ) is driven by how much the trough develops at day 5 & with that how far is drives the colder air SE.

The ECM at 120 is showing just a small wave which trickles into the NW & exits out across wales & the SW

55B48317-2D33-4FDA-9FDB-219814E23C29.thumb.jpeg.7d414514af5621ee5d824843ad73a78e.jpegAC92B601-2E68-4B75-9BCD-1E4AFAFBC875.thumb.jpeg.90a721fe6be42b31f0d0ea90ec4156d6.jpeg

This does introduce cooler air however its overall impact on the hot plume over England is somewhat limited -

The GFS on the other hand shows a lot more energy coming over the top - very progressive allowing the cooler air to mix across the whole of the UK

0F49AF15-177B-4A25-9FED-A205BEBFCDAA.thumb.jpeg.87d2062bc667bd5be86acd948b92d702.jpeg

 

Based on recent performance of the Euros V GFS then the firm favourite is the ECM - however at day 5 it could be that the meeting point is 80/20 to Euro meaning 'slightly' more cooler air influence than the Euro portrays....

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Monday 3 August

Taking a look at all 3 outputs ec-gfs and changes from what wa shown over the past 2-3 days regarding the height rises and ridging out of Europe. Ec still has ridging/heights from France but now a soread of heights w-e right across from n America into n Russia with the trough about 20W; gfs has very slight ridging from w of uk into more pronounced n Scandinavia/n Russia with a flattish troughsouth of Greenland w-e. Quite how this change will affect uk weather is 6 days away and this is the first such pattern and difference between them following the w/e agreement on all 3, see Net Wx notes.

Noaa is now showing a much more rounded trough, still with reasonable height rises over/ene of the uk but less of the pull of air off Europe.

So there are changes likely to be having effect from the end of this week. How long this altered pattern lasts we have to wait and see. But any longer term surface high and heat lasts is open to doubt for sure. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how these 3 charts develop  over the coming week.

The Noaa 8-14 follows on the 6-10 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

Edited by johnholmes
adding chart links
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I don't understand why temperatures need to be blast furnace level for people to feel satisfied. Mid 20s and settled is perfectly acceptable and useable.

I’m happy if it’s sunny and 20 degrees here in the northwest.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The ECM 00z is a hot run for southern England Fri-Sun and Tue-Wed (& counting - model run ends), widely hitting high 20s to low 30s in the raw data.

Mon is cooler but still hits the mid-high 20s if accounting for model bias.

Also factoring in bias: Middle-third of UK sees high 20s to low 30s Fri, then away from N Sea coasts it’s mid-high 20s each day except Mon which is low-mid 20s. So, a very warm spell overall.

 

As a whole it’s a warmer/hotter run than the 12z of yesterday, as the high to the west doesn’t inflate as rapidly before building across N UK, and the shallow low to the south roots itself further west which keeps the flow more easterly in the far south.

UKMO inflates that high even less while it’s to the west and has that more west LP position, so it would likely be a hotter outcome.

With the overland winds I think central-southern areas could be in for an exceptional run of temps by regional standards.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Exactly winter is rubbish, coats, scarfs, gloves, darkness what's to like. When its hot down here its shorts and bikinis all the way, whats not to like  

Interestingly the GEM ensembles are very similar to the GFS ones with the GEM Ops run being a bit of a party pooper compared to the rest of the pack for a time, though it must be stressed its nowhere the big outlier like the GFS Ops run. The mean is above 14C for uppers for a week from the 6th. If someone said that output was likely in early July you'd have chewed your own arm off for it. 

Bikinis? I’ll stick to my shorts thanks Chris!

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I feel like I’m the only person who loves both freezing cold, snowy winters and boiling hot, thundery summers. Love and really interested in the extremes. Love the stats and figures behind it all.

Certainly not the only one. The weather is all about extremes. Shame the people who wrote off summer so smugly last month haven’t explained what went so wrong for them.  The 7 days from Thursday look very interesting, could we see another 37c?  I’m not so sure, but it looks very pleasant down south.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Back to model discussion please?!

We have plenty of other threads to discuss weather preferences.

Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
35 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Never fear the Navgem is here and Scotland joins in on the heat party on this run

E5020BED-B300-4221-9244-E89C9D85875F.png

A3C73066-D2BE-436A-B19A-C62248E53D21.png

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EEA3A1AC-BDD2-41E9-9B51-84A1C086A9E8.png

Bank! Keep posting these Mark as it is always nice to dream! 

Really glad the last day of July brought that exceptionally hot day - something to discuss in the future when we look back on an otherwise very bland Summer month. (Against the 1981-2010 Anomaly)

6BF94C9B-816C-4FAA-8553-8D804BF8F764.thumb.png.9deb66a70d1e86a8697950430f1bd816.png98668B3D-BBBE-41A2-908C-8C744D13E14C.thumb.png.c666026403bfcaaf7b4728ed1632acea.png34081F46-1C50-48E2-8707-4473AA6384C3.thumb.png.5b0f7c75a4f2bd1103b8fc7270c09624.png

B644A9D2-6F76-4DBD-9824-B6CE892FAAD4.thumb.gif.3e62aaeae0e06e271cf4aa0745408395.gif

First below average month of the year for the UK as a whole...December the next one!? :santa-emoji:

Edited by Mr Frost
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