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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, mb018538 said:

Last nights op was a big warm outlier though. The warm upper air is still there today, the flow is just the wrong direction. This will be crucial as to surface heat, or surface average like last summer with those 22c uppers that didn’t deliver any heat.

Yes, I think we’ve gone from the absolute best case scenario in this setup (if you want heat) to the absolute worse.

There was a lot of scatter in the GEFS post Saturday, so the ECM op may reflect it.

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth

I just don't get why people jump on one set of charts and boast like it's gospel. Even without all the histrionics on here the SE looks like getting a few decent days of heat and sun.

Edited by Portsmouth Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Personally I think the gfs 06z was nearer the mark, Thursday and Friday will be hot or very hot possibly Saturday too, that’s good enough for me, models will firm up for Sunday tomorrow

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7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, I think we’ve gone from the absolute best case scenario in this setup (if you want heat) to the absolute worse.

There was a lot of scatter in the GEFS post Saturday, so the ECM op may reflect it.

Wouldn't say its worst case scenario, with a tropical storm playing silly buggers up the US east coast worst case would be that curving out in the Atlantic and heading straight for the UK. Overall I though the 12Z were a little indifferent however ICON was HP all the way, GEM pretty much the same despite clearing the heat so early, I thought GFS was really positive, almost all the ensembles & the parallel were hot (only the Ops run was a bit of a dogs dinner) and ECM still has plenty of potential even with an undercut thrown in. 

Check me out being all positive.....

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, Alderc said:

Wouldn't say its worst case scenario, with a tropical storm playing silly buggers up the US east coast worst case would be that curving out in the Atlantic and heading straight for the UK. Overall I though the 12Z were a little indifferent however ICON was HP all the way, GEM pretty much the same despite clearing the heat so early, I thought GFS was really positive, almost all the ensembles & the parallel were hot (only the Ops run was a bit of a dogs dinner) and ECM still has plenty of potential even with an undercut thrown in. 

I was more referring to extracting the most heat from the setup we have. An cold North Sea undercut is, as you say, a waste!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Worth noting that the ECM raw had maxes on Friday of 32-33c and that was clearly well too low.

Watch the UJV and Arprge, they appear to have a better grip on maximum temperatures.

My guess is not quite as hot as Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up around the top 10 hottest days.

Beyond Friday and huge uncertainty, unfortunately Isasis is going to cause real headaches over the next 24-48hrs for the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

I’m sure someone used to post a UKMO 168hrs Chart ? Is that not available anymore , I take it its behind some sort of paywall .

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

JMA has the +20C isotherm flirting with the West Country at T156:

39B719AE-DBD4-44CE-8675-9557283EE9A9.thumb.gif.00f8278305192e12cfad806de7a9e7df.gifCAF697D3-647D-48EA-8055-8A7074887657.thumb.gif.60678095ada5706c8dedb1b704d6aca7.gif

Small differences are making big differences for the UK with the really hot uppers being quite a narrow protrusion north of heat here.  More runs needed to firm up next weekend, I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
22 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I’m sure someone used to post a UKMO 168hrs Chart ? Is that not available anymore , I take it its behind some sort of paywall .

I have the site in my fave's but not been able to access it for months now,and i get a message saying FORBIDDEN you don't have the permission for the site,maybe lack of funding,i don't know.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

GFS pub run hot from Thursday for many, still. Fresher on Saturday for Scotland+NW, and everywhere else Sunday and Monday but still mid or high 20s for the south and south east.

B0C69932-5893-4F32-B52F-7C213CF3B733.thumb.jpeg.e2480623f85acac9167704995e7f5f8a.jpeg7ADE0CC8-059F-4F83-BDF6-12CDB19EF465.thumb.jpeg.b5283d1f5e87b9002f89505793dc8841.jpegE0E4E2C5-3CC4-47CE-8616-8C8F18B058FE.thumb.jpeg.d16aea485b8e0cc30a8e6879975d0f4a.jpeg3A3FFD7E-1ACF-4717-8E5D-89EC8B985E02.thumb.jpeg.b8c98c83e7098053fda7abd01a6a26e4.jpeg114C9D2A-FE97-482C-AC63-4F18AC57E384.thumb.jpeg.ae37b09bc1faff82d999b73da2a2f9e6.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS 18Z - very hot Thursday to Saturday - doesn't achieve a full Azores high / scandi high link up afterwards, so North Sea air sinks the temperatures afterwards - but still very settled and warm into the new week. 

On ECM ensembles, thurs-sat very hot, afterwards about 30% insanely hot, 70% averagely warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs is miles better than the 12z as we know it was a cooler outlier from days 5/6

trough lift's out futher north at day 6

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.84d5b1156b9b5f06c7f254ab8d17824f.png

then a Scandi/Azores link up from then,days 7/8

gfs-0-168.thumb.png.d2d90f4ef96fb968092591bb7846e428.pnggfs-0-192.thumb.png.3757b3a007780ebd6db146b73b284501.png

and still looking good beyond that,day 10

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.e5211e9b84b43611c23f92549b14f22b.png

please don't be a warm outlier this time

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

A flow off the North Sea on Tuesday.. still reasonably warm for most (esp S+SE). Much better than the majority of days this summer regardless.

BCC87F3A-AD50-4A49-83EC-FF257DC42CA4.thumb.png.aff9c93e81aa049820c9f473a41d210a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 minute ago, CheesepuffScott said:

A flow off the North Sea on Tuesday.. still reasonably warm for most (esp S+SE). Much better than the majority of days this summer regardless.

BCC87F3A-AD50-4A49-83EC-FF257DC42CA4.thumb.png.aff9c93e81aa049820c9f473a41d210a.png

That's an odd chart for a North Sea flow. You'd expect places closer to be cooler but instead that looks more like a standard NW/SE split. Even so, as you say, a pleasantly warm day nonetheless.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Morning crew!

Starting to get a better feel on where we are headed. GFS is again an outlier this morning, so I’ll ignore it off the bat:

A2AE81D9-E45C-4AF1-94F6-C253BEF65C0A.thumb.png.74fb8366472da54f35c4f74767ae75c7.png
 

Thursday to Saturday look hot, with the low to mid 30s likely Friday and Saturday. The SE corner may squeeze another very warm day out on Sunday, though conditions turning much fresher in the NW (for a time anyway) as the high re orientates.

UKMO looks good for a reload/rebuild of pressure into the following week too:

image.thumb.png.2c347f26f29608b466018adccd8fa2f8.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

the last few runs have moderated the expectations re temp records around next weekend - not gone completely as we know from experience that changes in the nwp that appear modest can have big consequences. However, the period of dig south in the Atlantic trough required to push the 20c isotherm across us has lessened and the forecast shape of the surface/upper ridge changed as a result.  Infact, we could end up in a pattern where our airflow remains ostensibly off the North Sea whilst Europe swelters ......... its not like it didn’t happen before .........

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM doesn’t quite get the hot air in as quickly as the UKMO today. Comparing the two - UKMO has the 16c line in by Friday 00z, ECM is 14c at the same time. As a result, the raw data today only has 30-31c on Friday, which is a couple of degrees down. Saturday looks hotter on this run, with a large area of 32c on raw data.

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