Model output discussion - into July 2020

[clark3r]

Gem keeps us very hot until a Monday, big ECM coming up, then late night for the pub run however if ECM clears the heat Saturday I won’t be staying up lol 

[mb018538]

GFS is a massive outlier anyway:

Don’t panic!!

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is a massive outlier anyway:

Don’t panic!!

GFS is a massive.......

I can think of a few words to follow massive to be honest.

Stick with UKMO and EC and you won't be far wrong.

[Captain Shortwave]

Thursday now in the range of the Arpege.

 

The temperatures will depend highly on how quickly the hot air pushes north out of France though. The Arpege does appear to have slightly higher 850s across the U.K. at this point.
 

Edited August 2, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

43 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Over to you ECM . . .

May even flick through the GEM ensembles.

Couple of really hot ones in there, given this is a longer spell than last week, T132:

Let’s see what the ECM thinks.  

[Methuselah]

Considering that fact that its 'coldest' T850 temperature is 6C, I could cope perfectly well with the gfs 12Z op...

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

Looks like the heat might last a little longer than UKMO at same time:

ECM has the main heat further west so would be with us for longer.

[clark3r]

Not quite so hot as before for Friday 32/33 I think uppers not as high on this run 

[Guest]

ECM similar to UKMO, hot Friday and Saturday but turning cooler as an upper cool pool moves down from the north and high pressure reinforces from the south west. 
 

edit - the cool pool never makes it into the south at 168hrs, could be very interesting from here....

Edited August 2, 2020 by Guest

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, clark3r said:

Not quite so hot as before for Friday 32/33 I think uppers not as high on this run 

Not as hot as the 00z

Thursday 28c

Friday 30-31c

Saturday 30-31 Kent

[Zak M]

12z ECM @168... oh la la 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Not as hot as the 00z

Thursday 28c

Friday 30-31c

Saturday 30-31 Kent

Raw values?

[Singularity]

 

Took a step back to look at the broader picture.

There's been a very big adjustment to the pattern to our west for the weekend in the past 24 hours. A flatter polar jet profile vacates LP from our west much faster, such that we have a new ridge looking to build across from the west as opposed to a low digging down and causing more northward build of the hot air from western Europe.

As a result, the setup favours a two-stage hot spell that doesn't peak as high so soon. Much as the 12z ECM looks to be going with. It's a more stable setup, unless something as complicated as the 12z GFS run occurs. Overall, as someone with high metabolism who struggles a lot during very warm nights, I'm happy with this new version of events.

Remains to be seen if it will stick, but these changes to the broad-scale trough-ridge pattern in the N. Atlantic tend not to reverse, at least not fully, when occurring within 5 days range. Unless, of course, it's only GFS doing it .

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @168... oh la la 

Should be pleasant with the breeze coming off the north sea?

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @168... oh la la 

I think most of us would have loved this chart a couple of weeks ago- however the hottest air has been pushed away from the UK. Seems like it would probably rebuild though after a day or two.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Should be pleasant with the breeze coming off the north sea?

16-18c across most of northern England. Only warm place on Sunday on the ecm is the SW at 26c with a keen easterly suppressing temps for many.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

16-18c across most of northern England. Only warm place on Sunday on the ecm is the SW at 26c with a keen easterly suppressing temps for many.

I don't mind, but obviously people up north might not like it.

 

[Djdazzle]

38C for Sunday on the ECM yesterday to 23C today (SE). That is one of the biggest flips of all time at that range. Has to be an outlier.

[Guest]

ECM develops a BIG north sea undercut and despite uppers returning to 18-20C by Monday max temps of just 26C down in the SW both Sun&Mon - Its an odd run post Saturday....

Parts of East Anglia almost under an 850 inversion. Uppers of 17/18C for Norwich @ 18z on Monday with a surface temp of 18C MASSIVE waste of potential. 

Edited August 2, 2020 by Guest

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM develops a BIG north sea undercut and despite uppers returning to 18-20C by Monday max temps of just 26C down in the SW both Sun&Mon - Its an odd run post Saturday....

Yep. Uppers of 16-18c in the south, with 20-26c maxima. Flow all wrong straight off the sea with no land track. Hopefully that’s not the case, would hate to see such warm air wasted. We can get 20c with 5c uppers!

[Djdazzle]

So it’s now looking like 3 hot days In the SE with chance of a 35. If the op is to be believed.

Edited August 2, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Zak M]

20c isotherm in the south on the ECM 216 chart so it might warm up a bit...

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep. Uppers of 16-18c in the south, with 20-26c maxima. Flow all wrong straight off the sea with no land track. Hopefully that’s not the case, would hate to see such warm air wasted. We can get 20c with 5c uppers!

We had 20C in May with 2C uppers......ECM them re-engages a continental flow on Tuesday and raw temps jump back to 32C. Its a messy run....without the undercut the ECM Ops run would have been exceptionally hot for the south from Cornwall to Kent. 

Edited August 2, 2020 by Guest

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

38C for Sunday on the ECM yesterday to 23C today (SE). That is one of the biggest flips of all time at that range. Has to be an outlier.

Last nights op was a big warm outlier though. The warm upper air is still there today, the flow is just the wrong direction. This will be crucial as to surface heat, or surface average like last summer with those 22c uppers that didn’t deliver any heat.

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

16-18c across most of northern England. Only warm place on Sunday on the ecm is the SW at 26c with a keen easterly suppressing temps for many.

Not exactly - it's warm or very warm for most of the southern third of England, bearing in mind these are noon spot temps, not the maximums, which will be 2-4°C higher.

Before that, I'm a bit surprised by the Saturday temp pattern:

...as the SLP pattern that day doesn't suggest a strong enough surface flow to limit temps so much away from the SE corner.

Then again, since I started tracking ECM temps closely a couple of years ago, I've really not been impressed, noting underestimations often on par with GFS (1-3°C, sometimes 4-5°C). Much as MWB has been telling us - and that's for the maximum temp charts, not these noon spot temps!

Bearing this in mind, this run sure has a hot Tuesday. Not that we should really bother with such details with so much shifting about for the preceding few days.