Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looking good for Manchester. Maybe not as intense as last Friday but still some heat on the cards, bit of scatter here so could be anything from mid 20s to low 30s and some warm muggy nights thrown in.

[chapmanslade]

2 hours ago, NTC said:

In other words none of you have any clue what will happen and the models never get anything right. Normality continues. One person says cold other says hot and another is inbetween so one of you can be right. Surely by now you must all realise these models mean nothing not one predicted 37.8c, almost every day in July someone predicted a plus 30 temps for the whole month.

It is probably fair to say that this forum is not the place for you !

Anyway good consistency for some heat again later next week. What is important however is that the heat over France never goes away, so it doesn't take very long for it to return, rather than having to drag it up from Spain. I'm in France for the next few weeks and certainly the first 10 days are looking pretty hot with few days sub 30C and plenty pushing 40C - all this only a few hundred miles south of the UK.

[Sweatyman]

just seen a Beeb forecast on telly and had London at 28c for next Sunday? Thought it'd be more than that?

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

just seen a Beeb forecast on telly and had London at 28c for next Sunday? Thought it'd be more than that?

Beeb forecasts tend to use raw data, and not always from the most up to date model run! And it’s a week away! GFS 6z has a raw temp of 33C next Sun, and I can’t see any model with anything as low as 28C.

Edited August 2, 2020 by Djdazzle

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

just seen a Beeb forecast on telly and had London at 28c for next Sunday? Thought it'd be more than that?

That’s what the latest ec op shows 

Saturday woud have showed 34C

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

just seen a Beeb forecast on telly and had London at 28c for next Sunday? Thought it'd be more than that?

They tend to use the ECM Op run for their forecasts - which does show 28c for Sunday from the 00z run.

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

They tend to use the ECM Op run for their forecasts - which does show 28c for Sunday from the 00z run.

Even that would give around 31C on the ground. But perish the thought that they would use any human input!

[Frosty.]

Well, what can I say..most of the GEFS 6z mean is a PEACH if you love summery weather..in..erm..Summer..charts speak for themselves..you don’t need me to comment..oops!   

Edited August 2, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MattStoke]

Very hot GFSP again. Peak heat next Saturday.

Edited August 2, 2020 by MattStoke

[stodge]

Afternoon all

I see I riled a couple of people because I have the temerity to a) not be a big fan of heat and b) not to see the "record breaking" charts some on here seem to say (the wonder of the GEFS).

The GFS 06Z OP doesn't scream "record breaking heat" to me at all.

The problem with the synoptics is if you build an HP to the east, fine, you get a draw of hot air from the south but nature abhors a vacuum and if you don't get a strong enough build through the British Isles the European trough moves north and fills the gap bringing cooler air and the likelihood of storms (which will please others on here).

This is the example of the LP filling the gap. Indeed, what often happens is we see a shallow LP forming in the North Sea which pulls in a N'ly airflow and sends the heat back south.

Alternatively, as the HP is displaced north and the Azores HP tries to ridge NE, the LP becomes more influential from the south and a S'ly becomes an E'ly. Very warm, yes, thundery, quite possibly but hot, I don't see it.

This is all however far from resolved as we know.

[Gordon Webb]

15 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

I see I riled a couple of people because I have the temerity to a) not be a big fan of heat and b) not to see the "record breaking" charts some on here seem to say (the wonder of the GEFS).

The GFS 06Z OP doesn't scream "record breaking heat" to me at all.

The problem with the synoptics is if you build an HP to the east, fine, you get a draw of hot air from the south but nature abhors a vacuum and if you don't get a strong enough build through the British Isles the European trough moves north and fills the gap bringing cooler air and the likelihood of storms (which will please others on here).

This is the example of the LP filling the gap. Indeed, what often happens is we see a shallow LP forming in the North Sea which pulls in a N'ly airflow and sends the heat back south.

Alternatively, as the HP is displaced north and the Azores HP tries to ridge NE, the LP becomes more influential from the south and a S'ly becomes an E'ly. Very warm, yes, thundery, quite possibly but hot, I don't see it.

This is all however far from resolved as we know.

yeah it's generally a no no to like not heat on here which is unfortunate as all opinions on here should be welcomed , and as for the upcoming warm/hot/scintillating spell depending on your point of view , selfishly speaking however I'd rather not have the same heat as Friday just gone , something a little less hot would do fine

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

38 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

I see I riled a couple of people because I have the temerity to a) not be a big fan of heat and b) not to see the "record breaking" charts some on here seem to say (the wonder of the GEFS).

The GFS 06Z OP doesn't scream "record breaking heat" to me at all.

The problem with the synoptics is if you build an HP to the east, fine, you get a draw of hot air from the south but nature abhors a vacuum and if you don't get a strong enough build through the British Isles the European trough moves north and fills the gap bringing cooler air and the likelihood of storms (which will please others on here).

This is the example of the LP filling the gap. Indeed, what often happens is we see a shallow LP forming in the North Sea which pulls in a N'ly airflow and sends the heat back south.

Alternatively, as the HP is displaced north and the Azores HP tries to ridge NE, the LP becomes more influential from the south and a S'ly becomes an E'ly. Very warm, yes, thundery, quite possibly but hot, I don't see it.

This is all however far from resolved as we know.

It all depends on how far north the uppers get, how far west the low gets from the Atlantic. The next two days will decide it on how the low coming out of N America phases with the big area of low heights over and South of Greenland, and also how the high builds and orientates itself out east. A Euro high with a S/SE feed could push the temperatures and potentially rival some records. There’s still a fair bit to be ironed out. 

My main interest would be some possibly spectacular thunderstorms, even a possibility of a dry storm or two in this setup. 

[swfc]

2 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

It is probably fair to say that this forum is not the place for you !

Anyway good consistency for some heat again later next week. What is important however is that the heat over France never goes away, so it doesn't take very long for it to return, rather than having to drag it up from Spain. I'm in France for the next few weeks and certainly the first 10 days are looking pretty hot with few days sub 30C and plenty pushing 40C - all this only a few hundred miles south of the UK.

Why is not for him he's making a point?anyway seven days is a long time model wise even given Tamara's great post etc.many a run over 48-72 esp in winter has been scuppered ! Imo opinion I'd say a settled August looks a good bet.not to bothered about plumes and record heat but dry and warm is fine

[Mark wheeler]

If you like Heat then the Navgem 6z is a Beauty .

[Djdazzle]

Why does NAVGEM overdo uppers so much? Has nobody tried to fix it?

[Mark wheeler]

Whilst I’m at it and just for fun whilst it’s quiet ,Has anyone taken a look at the CMA today . 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Why does NAVGEM overdo uppers so much? Has nobody tried to fix it?

July 2015 I believe it called spot on! Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol. 

[SMU]

GFS steps towards the UKMO solution with a curvature of isolines coming out of Europe SSE

HOT !

[Man With Beard]

UKMO continues to pump out hot charts for the end of the week. I suspect it this run would end up as one of those that traps the heat over the UK for an extended period after this point, as the Azores High builds in over the top of the heat, but a long way from resolving that one

[Zak M]

Very warm uppers on the UKMO @144:

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Very warm uppers on the UKMO @144:

Looks like 35c+ to me, especially after Thursday and Fridays heat...

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO continues to pump out hot charts for the end of the week. I suspect it this run would end up as one of those that traps the heat over the UK for an extended period after this point, as the Azores High builds in over the top of the heat, but a long way from resolving that one

I don’t think that’s primed for very hot weather. Danger of a low level cool North Sea undercut well Scandi blocking is in outlook. 

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z still looking nae bad, for the weekend:

    

[northwestsnow]

Looking very hot next week,I'm not keen on minima above 20 if I were to be honest...

Later next week could produce some exceptionally hot maxima and minima.

 

[Djdazzle]

Looks like an upgrade for heat on the 12z output so far.