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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Doncaster
  • Location: Doncaster
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles fairly united until Saturday, but a big divergence by Sunday in southern areas with members fairly evenly spread between 22C and 35C! (raw 1pm temps) Northern areas fairly likely to see less hot conditions by Sunday. 

In other words none of you have any clue what will happen and the models never get anything right. Normality continues. One person says cold other says hot and another is inbetween so one of you can be right. Surely by now you must all realise these models mean nothing not one predicted 37.8c, almost every day in July someone predicted a plus 30 temps for the whole month.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 30/07/2020 at 23:15, Don said:

Would be remarkable to record 38C (100f) two years on the trot, especially after 17 years since 10th August 2003.  However, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere hits that temperature 

Caution the word at this range, Atlantic has some gusto in it at the moment, short term developments can be expected, splitting trough scenario being hinted at, which might make for a quick cut off of the heat supply. Quite complex set up, atlantic energy seems to want to transfer NW-SE rather than SW-NE, always a tricky set up to forecast, hence the ECM shallow split trough development. The trough slider...

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Hot 6z run again - temps in the low 30s every day from Thursday to Tuesday in the SE...though the heat becoming more confined to the E/SE as time progresses as  slightly cooler air, more cloud and some rain affect the west.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
26 minutes ago, NTC said:

In other words none of you have any clue what will happen and the models never get anything right. Normality continues. One person says cold other says hot and another is inbetween so one of you can be right. Surely by now you must all realise these models mean nothing not one predicted 37.8c, almost every day in July someone predicted a plus 30 temps for the whole month.

Agree, nobody knows for certain, but the models aren't worthless. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So possibly a slight upgrade in heat on the 06z for most?

It's a bit messy but on this run, yes! The mini trough goes over the top of the hot area rather than under, keeps the hot air in place, then builds another high in over the top which traps the hot air over the UK, and then to cap it all off, has another stab at a plume for the end of next week. 

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With 13C 850's in place in the south east there's even an outside chance Wednesday could reach 30C the GFS Ops run has 9 further days reaching 30C. Friday probably hottest day with 35/36C likely and 34C on Saturday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is the extent of my confidence so far. Thursday / Friday, I'm very confident it will be hot with temperatures between 30 and 36in Central / Eastern England. Saturday, I'm fairly confident though not 100% that it will be very hot with a maximum between 33C and 38C. Sunday onwards, no, I'm not confident. 

Always hard to be confident on anything that’s a week away. Saturday looking like the hottest day though, which in Summer 2020 is a rarity as most weekends have been average at best.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is the extent of my confidence so far. Thursday / Friday, I'm very confident it will be hot with the maximum figure between 30C and 36C in Central / Eastern England. Saturday, I'm fairly confident though not 100% that it will be very hot with a maximum between 33C and 38C. Sunday onwards, no, I'm not confident. 

Latest BBC forecast has 35c on Friday. Pretty incredible to hit 35c+ twice in the space of a week. Just shows you again to NEVER write off the weather. It can and will surprise you.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A reason touted for the heat 'extreme' we got last week is that the lowest part of the column of air at the surface was heated by the anomalous warmth & dryness of the soil over France & Spain-

With nothing changing over the next week or so in terms of that Factor - what normally might be a range of 33-36 in this set up might suddenly become 35-38 ...

Something to consider when asking why the models keep underdoing the TMax in southerly winds -

Most certainly steve!!i didnt expect the temps to get to nearly 38 degrees that easily but it did!!here in leicester it got to 35 degrees!!looking forward to more heat during the day but defo not at night!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A reason touted for the heat 'extreme' we got last week is that the lowest part of the column of air at the surface was heated by the anomalous warmth & dryness of the soil over France & Spain-

With nothing changing over the next week or so in terms of that Factor - what normally might be a range of 33-36 in this set up might suddenly become 35-38 ...

Something to consider when asking why the models keep underdoing the TMax in southerly winds -

I can’t find the link to the air trajectory chart, but I saw this too. That airmass spent a few days drying and warming over Spain and France as you say, which was underplayed by most models and forecasters. Could we see the same again? 35c is forecast, which looks about right to me. 850s are a few degrees below last Friday, which will probably prevent another 37-38c? 35/36 more likely?

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Will be interested to see how tonight’s runs go, tbh I’m growing in confidence of lengthy hot spell with temps low to mid thirties in the south east and I would discount the record going next weekend.

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I can’t find the link to the air trajectory chart, but I saw this too. That airmass spent a few days drying and warming over Spain and France as you say, which was underplayed by most models and forecasters. Could we see the same again? 35c is forecast, which looks about right to me. 850s are a few degrees below last Friday, which will probably prevent another 37-38c? 35/36 more likely?

 

We will need the > +20c isotherm or around +20c & stationary air for a few days like 2003

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
8 minutes ago, Tamara said:

 

Hopefully this will become a familiar form of relaxation when, eventually all being well, I arrive here at a new home an hour from Lisbon.  Just got to get the builders in to provide a pool!  But first of all fingers crossed that the deposit gets safely paid this coming week:

1483599006_Almeirimhouse.thumb.GIF.16cd36046ff3fcc6908c00d55934c168.GIF

I was going to say lucky you Tamara but not if temperatures there are even worse than the outlook suggests for much of the UK at times. Happy new house settling in though. Is this a permanent move may I ask?

Sadly, from my point of view the 500 mb anomaly charts do just what is expected in your post. Oh well more garden watering, and certainly showers several times per day look likely at times! Sorry folks I will post my usual update eventually.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Latest BBC forecast has 35c on Friday. Pretty incredible to hit 35c+ twice in the space of a week. Just shows you again to NEVER write off the weather. It can and will surprise you.

Well if writing off summer brings us surprises then must do it more often. Good job we have me to save the day!! 

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