Model output discussion - into July 2020

[clark3r]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Uppers of 21 at day 8...

 

If uppers at 21 if clear sunshine and previous days heat surely a chance the all time record would be at threat?

[Alexis]

4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Just goes to show how much warmer our heatwaves/spikes have gotten, over the years... in 1975, 28C was 'hot', 31C was 'very hot'... and 1976's record of 36C (recorded on only one day!) was exceptional?

I remember when I was younger, 15-20 years ago, the top temp for the entire year would be either 32 or 33C - obviously in the south east. Nowadays we can get 31 or even 32 in the northwest, which hardly ever used to happen.

[Guest]

ECM still very hot at day 10 (240hr)

[Djdazzle]

This is one of the hottest op runs I’ve ever seen. It’s like one of those extreme ensemble members that @JON SNOW loves to post!

[bluearmy]

Second pulse of uppers via the digging Atlantic upper trough is a sure fire way of getting some v high temps although that run seems to have slp a little on the low side overall in fi to provide the cloudless skies we would need to set records ... tbh, I would prefer the probable widespread thunderstorms that it would deliver !!

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

ECM has 37c in Cambridge on August 9 

Here's the crazy chart for next Sunday. Hotter than any chart in the run up to last year's hottest day ever. Would deliver a 40C, very likely. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20200809-1800z.html

However it's also noteworthy that next Friday, at just D6, we already have a chart that is just as hot as the charts the ECM put out for yesterday. 

[clark3r]

Who needs to go to Spain, Spain maybe coming here lol

[ChannelThunder]

Aside from the heat pump they're showing, it's interesting to see such cross-model agreement now when compared to earlier in the summer. Is this related to the fact the skies are once again full of planes by any chance?

[Djdazzle]

Is that a raw 37C? You cannot be serious . . .

[Man With Beard]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Is that a raw 37C? You cannot be serious . . .

It is serious. 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It is serious. 

That would undoubtedly put last years 38.7c under massive threat, and a realistic chance of 40c....probably the hottest run I’ve ever seen!

[Djdazzle]

Surely a hot outlier. Although the evolution is perfectly plausible and has support from other models.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Is that a raw 37C? You cannot be serious . . .

We all need to take a chill, it’s the model version of ‘Super Saturday’ BUT IS THAT A RAW 37c ON ECM? 

Clearly they’ll be flex in the output but as any year ever even had two separate spells that have delivered 35c? 

 

[Mr Frost]

Evening al!

Great posts in here today! Another fantastic week of model/chart viewing for the week ahead! 

Just a quick one - maybe we can squeeze in a bonus 30C day on Thursday before the main event arrives! 

UKV: Thursday 15:00

28C showing in the SE...quite a bit of cloud about so hopefully nearer the time that is not an issue. (These charts will of course change slightly over the coming days) 

 

Have a good night everyone! 

[Singularity]

   

I'll just leave these here. 

After one of the hottest GFS runs I can recall seeing, which when accounting for bias would deliver 9 or 10 days widely into the 30s for England and often more than only just, the ECM 12z has taken a less stable but more intense route. Phenomenal charts at hand but we must keep our heads - we're only just able to have some confidence in the opening stages taking place Thu-Fri, now that GFS has caught most of the way up with respect to the UK-Scandinavian high build.

[Man With Beard]

So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C :

Thursday 31-32

Friday  35-36

Saturday 36-37

Sunday 39-40

Monday 37-38

Tuesday 36-37

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We all need to take a chill, it’s the model version of ‘Super Saturday’ BUT IS THAT A RAW 37c ON ECM? 

Clearly they’ll be flex in the output but as any year ever even had two separate spells that have delivered 35c? 

 

1911 is the only one I can think of.

[B87]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

We all need to take a chill, it’s the model version of ‘Super Saturday’ BUT IS THAT A RAW 37c ON ECM? 

Clearly they’ll be flex in the output but as any year ever even had two separate spells that have delivered 35c? 

 

Not quite, but last summer London had 34c in June, 38c in July, and then 3 consecutive days above 33c in August.

[SMU]

The ECM would be a furnace for the SE of the UK-

Mega hot conditions & occasional thunderstorms 

Bring on the 20C CET

@DAVID SNOW

[bluearmy]

Ec op Sunday 18z sees 577 dam on the Kent coast ....yesterday was 576 

Edited August 1, 2020 by bluearmy

[MattStoke]

I see your ECM and I raise you the GFS Parallel....

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by MattStoke

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I see your ECM and I raise you the GFS Parallel....

A definite record breaker!

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I see your ECM and I raise you the GFS Parallel....

This is getting silly now!

[Don]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op Sunday 18z sees 577 dam on the Kent coast ....yesterday was 576 

40C somewhere in the south east next weekend?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

40C somewhere in the south east next weekend?

It’s possible 

just illustrating the potential next Sunday compared to yesterday following some v hot days when yesterday hadn’t seen such preparation 

next Sunday is a long way off though and plenty of time for things to swing the other way a bit ....

Edited August 1, 2020 by bluearmy