Model output discussion - into July 2020

[CheesepuffScott]

And at Friday the 14th, GFS 12z is still churning out the heat... that'd be 8 consecutive days of 30°C+ somewhere in the UK

Edited August 1, 2020 by CheesepuffScott

[Guest]

Good chance of some new records later next week and over the weekend. Possibly by day and night. Excellent outlook.

Going by the GFS underestimation of temps, we'll likely see over a week of 30C+ days  August is shaping up to be quite special!

simshady's gonna hibernate until December now 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Kid Thunder

[Darren Vidamour]

Hello everyone. 

I don't post here often but enjoy reading the various posts each with their own insightfulness.

Im due to go to Jersey on the 8th August for 2 weeks and I am very excited by the prospect of the some major heat building up from the 7th. Does Jersey tend to be cooler due to the surrounding Atlantic Ocean? 

Cheers 

 

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, Darren Vidamour said:

Hello everyone. 

I don't post here often but enjoy reading the various posts each with their own insightfulness.

Im due to go to Jersey on the 8th August for 2 weeks and I am very excited by the prospect of the some major heat building up from the 7th. Does Jersey tend to be cooler due to the surrounding Atlantic Ocean? 

Cheers 

 

Hi Darren

Well sea surface temperatures in the English Channel are above average at the moment, here SST anomaly as of now:

So I don’t think Jersey would be much different to coastal sites in Southern England, and of course you would be getting higher upper temperatures there than the rest of the UK in a plume scenario.  So I think it will be hot at least initially.  

Edited August 1, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

Well that’s an interesting GFS run, the UKMO chart at T144 is a thing of beauty and GEM living up to its name - I reckon the models are smelling another lockdown...

[terrier]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well that’s an interesting GFS run, the UKMO chart at T144 is a thing of beauty and GEM living up to its name - I reckon the models are smelling another lockdown...

Lovely looking charts from the gem ukmo and gfs output tonight 30+ looking highly likely towards next weekend. But as you say that will in turn having people flocking to the beaches again accelerating the return to lockdown once more unfortunately. 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Lovely looking charts from the gem ukmo and gfs output tonight 30+ looking highly likely towards next weekend. But as you say that will in turn having people flocking to the beaches again accelerating the return to lockdown once more unfortunately. 

Virus spread outdoors is negligible. So let’s enjoy the hot sun while we can!

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Virus spread outdoors is negligible. So let’s enjoy the hot sun while we can!

I think it’s been shown around the world that beaches aren’t doing much for the spread. It’s indoor environments like bars and clubs, with people in close quarters causing the issue. Young people especially. Also - plenty of hot climates are seeing plenty of cases, so the heat and sun isn’t killing it off (to keep things weather related!)

[Snowy L]

 

10 minutes ago, terrier said:

Lovely looking charts from the gem ukmo and gfs output tonight 30+ looking highly likely towards next weekend. But as you say that will in turn having people flocking to the beaches again accelerating the return to lockdown once more unfortunately. 

Really? I would think since 4th July families and friends from different households meeting indoors in houses and pubs all the time due to the disgraceful weather would be the biggest cause, not people meeting outside. Anything that brings people outside is good news imo. More weather related, that UKMO 144h chart is the perfect summer chart for me. Not record-breaking heat, but high twenties/low thirties with very low humidity. Would take that instead of a transient plume.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Snowy L

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

 

Really? I would think since 4th July families and friends from different households meeting indoors in houses and pubs all the time due to the disgraceful weather would be the biggest cause, not people meeting outside. Anything that brings people outside is good news imo. More weather related, that UKMO 144h chart is the perfect summer chart for me. Not record-breaking heat, but high twenties/low thirties with very low humidity. Would take that instead of a transient plume.

 

 

However, the UKMO post 144 would very likely become very hot and sultry as the hotter uppers are drawn north and the air stagnates.

[Mike Poole]

To be honest, at T96, the ECM is more bullish of height rises to the east compared to both UKMO and GEM, ECM first:

Think this run could be a cracker.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

The lurking heat below is sufficiently west on this run, that we could see a longer spell of hot weather...

[mb018538]

ECM looks great at 144 too....not quite as perfect as UKMO, but not far off. Here comes the heat!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, and the heat is in, properly in.

Good confidence about next weekend across the model suite. 

[Zak M]

12z ECM @168:

Could be hot for 4-5 days on this run, injecting very warm uppers too. Low 30s possible.

[Guest]

ECM 168 has 19C uppers flirting with the south coast

Absolutely into the low thirties by the weekend, quite widely in the south and east.

[seabreeze86]

Here comes the heat on the ECM we really are overdue a heatwave in August 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192!!

[DaveL]

That trough and likely thundery low is back though! Not so good for the outlook and I need the week to be dry!

[seabreeze86]

This charts has the potential to be very thundery , pressure dropping and heat pumping up from the south. 

[northwestsnow]

Goodness me EC takes the UK into the furnace ...

Mid 30s for the south looks likely,again..

Edited August 1, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Captain Shortwave]

So at day 6 none of the models look particularly alike with regards to that Atlantic trough. The ECM tending to offer the broadest trough.

 

day 7/8

   
Turning very hot, possible thunderstorms by day 8 but probably isolated under that heat low.

Oh to answer the question of what a UKMO solution could pan out like, JMA

[northwestsnow]

Uppers of 21 at day 8...

 

[Zak M]

ECM has 37c in Cambridge on August 9 

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192!!

Another crazy run. I'd have thought this would push 38C close. 

This is probably at the hot end of the runs, though.