Model output discussion - into July 2020

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Disappointing? Are we looking at the same model?! 

I understand that you live in Northern Ireland but a few days of hot weather can't be that bad surely?! Unless you expect everything to be 2018-esque!

A couple of days of warm weather would be great never mind hot.

The "plume" for tomorrow lasts about 6 hours over here.

[Mark wheeler]

I just watched the Beeb Forecast now saying 35c possible . Also said uncertainty about rain moving in on Monday , well the icon is out .  Not much rain here . Gfs does have this feature more pronounced.

Edited July 30, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What did people expect though? A 3 week heatwave? That ain't gona happen this summer.

Erm. Is a week of dry warm weather out of 13 weeks of Summer too much to ask?

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A couple of days of warm weather would be great never mind hot.

The "plume" for tomorrow lasts about 6 hours over here.

Yes I’ve seen that , Very unfortunate for you in NI hopefully next week is better for you guys , I too wasn’t to chuffed with the ecm as amazingly other models like the GFS and gem had less heat but more widespread conditions and potentially for longer , let’s see what tonight’s and more especially tomorrow’s runs bring .

Edited July 30, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What did people expect though? A 3 week heatwave? That ain't gona happen this summer.

Wanna bet? Lots of support coming through the models that this August is going to be the best since 2003. I have a feeling that tomorrow is just the opening credits!! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

UK version MWB

 

and the gfs/p going for 36c but i suspect a notch or two on those values,can we squeeze 38c?

 

Would be remarkable to record 38C (100f) two years on the trot, especially after 17 years since 10th August 2003.  However, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere hits that temperature tomorrow.

[Captain Shortwave]

GEFs this morning

      

The operational whilst settled, again doesn't bring the heat north as it is messier with the Atlantic trough, however the general ensembles are in line with the GEM op, and possibly the UKMO at day 6 shown below.

The GEM yet again delivers a set up where the mid-thirties will be reached by next weekend.

As for today, Arpege still going for a high of 36C, which is possible anywhere from London northwards into the East Midlands. North Kent I would also put a punt on for high temperatures due to a lack of sea track and tapping the heat directly from France. Also it appears that any cloud and showers will arrive late afternoon at the earliest now.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Methuselah]

7 hours ago, Don said:

Would be remarkable to record 38C (100f) two years on the trot, especially after 17 years since 10th August 2003.  However, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere hits that temperature tomorrow.

I think the previous 100F (prior to 2003) was way back in 1911?

Anywho, today's GFS 00Z is something of a goodie -- two or three weeks' fine weather might, at last, be on the cards:

    

    

    

    

And, there's one mighty fine stonker in those ens... @JON SNOW; and the GFS 00Z, 2m, op is a cold outlier!

    

    

And now for the farm... Holy moly guacamole!   Enjoy your day, folks!

[mb018538]

In the gambling business, they often say there’s nothing sweeter than a repeater....well next Friday/weekend looks like we’re getting furnace heat once again!

[Man With Beard]

The ECM this morning looks like a good set up for a longer heatwave than the current heat "snap" - plenty of support from the GEFS again. 

[Frosty.]

I think the focus should be on today....El Scorchio!

Edited July 31, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mountain shadow]

A much better overnight from the ECMWF,  with the Atlantic held at bay.

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A much better overnight from the ECMWF,  with the Atlantic held at bay.

Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

Exeter have been way behind the pace this summer. It took them ages to drop their “warm and settled” second half of July forecast when practically all other modelling (including their own) were against it.

[johnholmes]

In the longer term after the excitement of today and what might the maximum temperature be, then the anomaly charts are showing a concensus for a more S of West flow into the UK, heights tending to rise ESE-NW of or even over the UK with the marked trough edging west and elongating. See below.

Not a done deal yet but reasonable agreement between the three and EC has been the leader of this pattern change. The 8-14 NOAA also keeps this idea going. Another 24-48 hours showing similar charts and the change would be about 75% likely by next weekend IF this pattern is kept by all three.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[northwestsnow]

The EC mean is absolutely stunning...

Extended heatwave territory..

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

GFS isn’t on board yet. I see it as settled and warm later next week but not the blow torch that is the ECM  

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean is gob smacklingly amazing, not just for today!..holy cow!...could squeeze 36c 97f in the SE today..summer fights back!!

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

GFS isn’t on board yet. I see it as settled and warm later next week but not the blow torch that is the ECM  

I think in all honesty the GFS is on board. The 00z had solid high pressure over the UK for several days from Friday onwards, and likely temperatures of 30C in the SE and mid 20s for a lot of areas - pretty typical UK heatwave conditions - added to that, it was almost a cold outlier within its ensembles! 

Not saying this to you, but saying this as a general point - The regularity of the uppers 20C line reaching the UK perhaps has altered expectations of what a heatwave looks like - it used to be the case that the 20C line would only clip the UK once every 10 years. Now a summer doesn't feel complete unless it happens. But a good old-fashioned UK heatwave involves uppers more Iike 12-16C uppers, and the occasional 32C at surface level.

This kind of heatwave looks a strong favorite for next weekend - maybe a little hotter if the pattern sets up right - but a couple more runs to get through yet to make sure the Atlantic has not been underestimated around D6. 

Edited July 31, 2020 by Man With Beard

[SizzlingHeat]

19 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

GFS isn’t on board yet. I see it as settled and warm later next week but not the blow torch that is the ECM  

The GFS 0z was a huge cool outlier. The ensembles show the average 850s above 15c again from next Friday for a number of days. Some members even get close to 20c again. The mean for next Saturday is 17c widely throughout the UK. I would suggest the GFS is entirely onboard

[Don]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I think the previous 100F (prior to 2003) was way back in 1911?

 

I  do not believe 100f had been officially recorded anywhere in the UK prior to August 2003.  The official record up to that point was 37.3C in Cheltenham August 1990.

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Don said:

I  do not believe 100f had been officially recorded anywhere in the UK prior to August 2003.  The official record up to that point was 37.3C in Cheltenham August 1990.

I think the 1991 figure was 37.1c at Cheltenham.

 

2003 was the first time the UK broke 100f.

 

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes EC is a very nice run,it maybe an outlier though.

All eyes on Exeter later because they have not bought into it,yet.

Met office have had a shocker this year with their 30 day forecasts. Warm and settled weather has been 2 weeks away for 3 months now according to them.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hi folks, it seems I've missed alot these last couple of days.. My dad has Parkinsons and had a bad fall the other day.. And it's resulted in him being admitted to Hospital.. Good news is he's on the mend, and I'm hoping to have him back very shortly.. Talk about stress.. My heart goes out to any of you guys who have various disabilities to contend with. 

A quick update on last night's EC46.. not had time to cover it in great detail yet.. As we all know a little more unsettled through next week, but the 46 is saying a renewed build of heights by later next week, and this holding firm through next Weekend and into the following week... Temperatures also becoming warmer again... I have a feeling August this time around could be shaping up to be much better than our recent affairs.. 

A very good day to you and take care in this heat if you have it to the extreme..

 

[Kentspur]

Already 33c at Heathrow at 11am could the Arpege be right about its 37c hope the cloud stays away until after peak heating time