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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I'll do an update on the 500 mb anomaly charts tomorrow as there does appear to be a shift developing.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hi MWB , I’m going to ask probably a silly question to you and others but where do you find the graph for where the operational sits within the ensembles , I’ve looked where I think it might be but can’t seem to find it ? I’d appreciate the help .

Please note the chart I’ve posted is yesterday’s run . 
 

Kind Regards 

Mark

0F4651E9-15CF-40E6-9116-5A85EF5E9297.png

Here it is:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

 

This is another one with more information, you can also search other UK cities

ensemble-euro.png
WEATHER.US

London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Not much talk of the GFS tonight which shows the heat all but gone by Saturday, and back into a westerly regime next week. However chances of a warm up again towards the end of next week, but perhaps not as hot as this Friday. (Appreciate the ECM is more favourable if you like hot weather, but the GFS doesn’t want to know about those extremes at the moment). 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z JMA - el scorchio!!

J204-21.thumb.gif.3afd5584ba56fa200a6bdf1f26591c2a.gif   J216-7.thumb.gif.47a9b7a79f966868892f7f3ba1599b12.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

The Aperge still going for 36’C to the west of London tomorrow. The Arome is showing similar.

All things considered though, I will take a punt at a maximum of 34-35’C.

48CE7F9F-3BBD-4125-88A4-5370589DFD31.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GEFs

gens-21-1-144.png   gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

Tie this in with the operational outputs and last nights ECM suite, you have to admit there is a strong trend towards an amplified ridge building during the second half of next week over Europe with the UK seemingly in a good position to benefit is fine and potentially hot weather is your thing.

Just for fun the GEM

gem-0-144.png?00   gem-0-192.png?00   gem-0-240.png?00

The real difference potentially here compared to the last couple of months is the longwave pattern is shifting towards the chance of a proper heatwave developing instead of a brief plume (June did however last four days before breaking down mind you).

As for tomorrow, Arpege still suggesting a high of 36C close to London (Still feels a little too high), however the metoffice are now suggesting 33C for up here in Peterborough so maybe the mid-thirties is possible....

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

The Aperge still going for 36’C to the west of London tomorrow. The Arome is showing similar.

All things considered though, I will take a punt at a maximum of 34-35’C.

48CE7F9F-3BBD-4125-88A4-5370589DFD31.jpeg

I always feel the ARPEGE and AROME are the "go to" models for temperatures inside T48 - in which case I think 36C is on. But it depends on how quickly cloud moves in from the south. The ARPEGE has it moving in by 3pm, the AROME is an hour later (and looks slightly hotter, maybe 37C). Of course if they are both wrong and cloud moves in earlier still, knock the temps back down a bit. (Edit: the ECM has broken cloud approaching London by 1pm and consequently looks more like a 33C or 34C)

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS PTB 2 Smashes the UK 850 record with +25c Uppers ...

Havent seen many runs like that before...

68EEF54B-69C6-4021-BB7F-9B1C4452D3EA.thumb.png.c4e563ead9ffc74c4eb61615c5acf082.pngAAFDAEC1-C6BD-4027-96A6-1F24D97D43ED.thumb.png.797266d7737dfb0a8ad023d17c2e061f.png

Just been marvelling at that run myself. GFS shows 2m temps of 33-37C widely for a few days. Given it underestimates max temps you'd have to say 40C would be achievable in such an extreme set up.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
52 minutes ago, Kid Thunder said:

Just been marvelling at that run myself. GFS shows 2m temps of 33-37C widely for a few days. Given it underestimates max temps you'd have to say 40C would be achievable in such an extreme set up.

I would have thought 40c would be a possibility under such a set up.

But this is likely to go the same way as a -20c run we see in winter! A watered down version likely, maybe similar to the setup tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM - Whilst clearly a little flatter than yesterday still clearly shows the establishment of heights over most of Europe into week 2 with an Atlantic trough in place.

image.thumb.gif.a55b81d7d0bd5ad9cc0f56cfbd7537b7.gifimage.thumb.gif.7c5cd143e0226ca2859af31ef7979191.gif   
 

As long as the trend remains, there is certainly a good chance of conditions turning very warm or hot by the end of next week, a low but statistically significant chance of something more substantial.
 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Thursday 30 June

Ec and gfs; ec continues with its idea of modest height rises coupled with ridging fro Iberia/western Europe into the se half of the uk, less so for the nw with the main trough around 30W; gfs does not really show this trough position/shape and has no ridging, and its very limited height rises are not directed towards the uk area although the very weak ridging from Africa into central Europe are a change from previous days?

Noaa has very modest height rises but no sign of any ridging and the trough at about 30 W is a rounded one, not like the ec version, so on the 6-10 outlook the jury is still out in my view. Its 8-14 chart is very similar, so overall no clear suggestion of marked heating up although the 500 flow is certainly more s of west than for some time. It is still a fairly strong flow so any idea of a ridge developing, other than the odd day here and there, seems not to be supported on the anomaly charts just yet.

The 12z ec-gfs yesterday did show, I think, gfs also with some ridging, but not this morning.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

 

image.png

Edited by johnholmes
changing wording re gfs
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Both AROME and ARPEGE rapidly sweep the heat through during the day tomorrow with increased cloud cover, in fact I'm sure ARPEGE is contradicting itself and hasn't got a good handle on tomorrow. By early afternoon it has is raining from Birmingham to the south coast and across to east London, while I appreciate its showery activity the suns almost gone by 1/2pm for the London area and even earlier for areas south and west of London. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Both AROME and ARPEGE rapidly sweep the heat through during the day tomorrow with increased cloud cover, in fact I'm sure ARPEGE is contradicting itself and hasn't got a good handle on tomorrow. By early afternoon it has is raining from Birmingham to the south coast and across to east London, while I appreciate its showery activity the suns almost gone by 1/2pm for the London area and even earlier for areas south and west of London. 

 

Which is totally at odds with the BBC and Meto forecasts which show full sun until late afternoon.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

Which is totally at odds with the BBC and Meto forecasts which show full sun until late afternoon.

Arpege seems to be on its own a bit with the extent of the showery activity hence my comment about it not having a good handle on tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A wee bit of spread in them thar GFS 00Z 850 hPa ens::shok:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Wouldn't it be interesting, were a hurricane-remnant to waft 25C uppers in our direction... if only far a day or two?:help::oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A wee bit of spread in them thar GFS 00Z 850 hPa ens::shok:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Wouldn't it be interesting, were a hurricane-remnant to waft 25C uppers in our direction... if only far a day or two?:help::oldlaugh:

We are likely to see ex-Isaias heading out into the mid Atlantic through next week:

405C75F6-9224-466E-AEDF-85302674B53A.thumb.png.55600360e38f50f7646f49a8e6d4bc61.png

You can see it here as the neat little circular low off the eastern seaboard. Likely to play havoc with forecasts as usual, be wary of this as usual.

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Both AROME and ARPEGE rapidly sweep the heat through during the day tomorrow with increased cloud cover, in fact I'm sure ARPEGE is contradicting itself and hasn't got a good handle on tomorrow. By early afternoon it has is raining from Birmingham to the south coast and across to east London, while I appreciate its showery activity the suns almost gone by 1/2pm for the London area and even earlier for areas south and west of London. 

 

Cloud base will be extremely high so less interference with insolation I suspect

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We are likely to see ex-Isaias heading out into the mid Atlantic through next week:

405C75F6-9224-466E-AEDF-85302674B53A.thumb.png.55600360e38f50f7646f49a8e6d4bc61.png

You can see it here as the neat little circular low off the eastern seaboard. Likely to play havoc with forecasts as usual, be wary of this as usual.

I'm thinking/hoping that will phase with the low out west and help hold it there longer to bring a continental source for us late next week/weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Just now, joggs said:

I'm thinking/hoping that will phase with the low out west and help hold it there longer to bring a continental source for us late next week/weekend.

Tbh..I think that's the form...@reimergance of continental source based heat after a 3\4 day cool off. And tbh...next weekend could surpass what we have now..and indeed tomorrow..imo of course but I'll descript things better later today....

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
On ‎29‎/‎07‎/‎2020 at 10:59, MattStoke said:

Obviously we cannot see what the Met Office's internal computer model data is showing but their automated forecasts for Northolt and Heathrow are showing 34'C and 35'C respectively for Friday. That's an increase of 1'C for both locations since yesterday.

Met Office automated forecasts now up to 35'C for Northolt and 36'C for Heathrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter

Looks like some mighty fine summer weather could be a possibility after the first week of August.  I don't think anyone could complain with a chart like this?

30_07_2020.png

Edited by Earthshine
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Looks like some mighty fine summer weather could be a possibility after the first week of August.  I don't think anyone could complain with a chart like this?

30_07_2020.png

GFS 6z is warm and dry too.

Lets hope we've seen the back of this horrendous Summer..

 

image.thumb.png.325eeba60e7c9f0491d3a7147924fc59.png

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