Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Djdazzle]

21 minutes ago, Zak M said:

20c isotherm well into the south on the 12z UKMO!

GEM and ICON do too; GFS not quite so far north.

Date record of 33.9C looks like going for sure.

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GEM and ICON do too; GFS not quite so far north.

Date record of 33.9C looks like going for sure.

Funny how uppers are almost always lower on the GFS. You wouldn't think there would be much variation this close to Friday but there is quite a big difference still between GFS and the others.

[Zak M]

4 hours ago, Tamara said:

...Like shoals of fish they are starting to point the other way in midstream...

Recent NWP, up to the start of this week, had seemed suspicious the way it had reverted to extrapolating the default summer pattern out in time throughout the first half of August. Quite a subtle, but distinct shift has duly occurred over the last 2 days.

Clear indications now that the return to cooler unsettled conditions after the upcoming plume is not in for a long haul, as by the second half of next week the axis of the upper trough looks set to re-orientate further away to the NW of the country and the Azores ridge allowed to create a downstream extension to extend and sit over and to the east of a greater part of the country.  There is still likely to be some secondary trough inroads swinging around the main upper trough, but crucially the approach of these on a subtly different track - and advecting incursions of tropical continental airmasses ahead of them on a more regular basis and with the rather unseasonal North Atlantic airmass incursions less dominant.

This implies an increased thundery nature to a greater number of the rain bands, with very warm/ hot sunshine in between, and winds much more often from a southerly vector than seen for much of the summer so far.

There, I have said it.,..

This is exactly the reason that I clicked on the follow button beside your profile!

Can't thank you enough for these updates Tamara. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This is exactly the reason that I clicked on the follow button beside your profile!

Can't thank you enough for these updates Tamara. 

You sound like Cathy bates In the film Misery... I'm your number 1 fan she says to the writer Pual Sheldon.. Before keeping him locked up for weeks.. Just kidding Zak.. Tams is an excellent poster

I think the Arpege is a slight upgrade on the earlier run, the record is safe from last year.. But I have a feeling 35C could be breached.. Perhaps a 36C somewhere... And that's dam Hot. 

 

[Zak M]

Is the ECM alright?! 

[Djdazzle]

ECM 192 looks a bit “2003”

[Zak M]

Some proper heat there - that low in the Atlantic stalls there too, so it could last a while.

   

Edited July 29, 2020 by Zak M

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, Zak M said:

Yes Please , it’s finally latched on to the correct solution

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Is the ECM alright?! 

Sort of came out of nowhere, but to be fair this is what the ensembles have been broadly saying in the past 24 hours. 

Regarding Friday this week, ecm raw temps gives several spots as 32C now, add the usual 2-3C uplift and potential is there for 34/35C, just like ARPEGE. 

[Zak M]

   

Has to be an outlier surely - too good to be true.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Sort of came out of nowhere, but to be fair this is what the ensembles have been broadly saying in the past 24 hours. 

Regarding Friday this week, ecm raw temps gives several spots as 32C now, add the usual 2-3C uplift and potential is there for 34/35C, just like ARPEGE. 

It’s sort of appeared out of nowhere - but as @Tamara says, it shouldn’t be too surprising given the shuffling of the cards globally. Always takes the models some time to pick this change up (signals lead the models etc). Not that I’m complaining - we’ve suffered enough this summer. A decent August will somewhat make up for the poor June and July.

[SMU]

If your looking for some heat this is route 1 !

[clark3r]

If bookies were taking bets on what week will be the best of summer I would bet on 2nd week of august right now

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

   

Has to be an outlier surely - too good to be true.

Defo an outlier as it brings the risk of a hot weekend...

[Allseasons-Si]

I have just had a W.T.F moment looking at the ecm...

although the temps won't be as high as this Friday,there could be more wiggle room to match that in ten days.

[Frosty.]

Dreamy charts from the ECM 12z operational, great potential..hopefully the best of this summer is still to come!

[Allseasons-Si]

Days 8-10 from the ecm mean...

"BRING IT ON"

Edited July 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest from cpc

upgrades are flooding in for week two of August,keep em coming

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Days 8-10 from the ecm mean...

"BRING IT ON"

I have been tracking these charts since before 2003 and I honestly do not believe I have ever seen anything like that on a D9 mean chart, 16C uppers on the south coast - that's one of the most remarkable charts I've ever seen - it's as hard to get as a minus 10C mean in January. 

[Mr Frost]

11 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

On that note I am now suffering with plume watch model fatigue so that’s my input done for the week! 

 

Ah go on then one more won’t hurt! 

Latest UKV: Friday 13:00, 14:00 and 15:00.

That is seriously hot! Spot the 35C! 

Would not be surprised to see 30C registered in the SE tomorrow - now showing a high of 29C.

Great model/chart viewing at the moment for the short term and long term - August might just save the Summer for many of us! 

Have a good night everyone!

Edited July 29, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Man With Beard]

If anyone wanted to see all the ecm ensembles at T216, I've posted a link to the control run here

Model charts for United Kingdom (Temperature, 850hPa) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

WEATHER.US

---

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/07/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model...

 

Select "switch members" to get through the 51 members - I gave up counting how many bring the 18C uppers line over the UK either next Friday or Saturday, must be more than half. 

[Zak M]

8-10 day 500mb mean:

ECM to the left, GFS to the right

I think it's clear who wins this. ECM has the low wafting up some warm air from the continent, as the op showed. GFS doesn't really have any of it, but I reckon it will start trending towards what the ECM is showing shortly.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Zak M

[Mark wheeler]

41 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If anyone wanted to see all the ecm ensembles at T216, I've posted a link to the control run here

Model charts for United Kingdom (Temperature, 850hPa) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

WEATHER.US

---

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/07/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Temperature, 850hPa", model...

 

Select "switch members" to get through the 51 members - I gave up counting how many bring the 18C uppers line over the UK either next Friday or Saturday, must be more than half. 

Hi MWB , I’m going to ask probably a silly question to you and others but where do you find the graph for where the operational sits within the ensembles , I’ve looked where I think it might be but can’t seem to find it ? I’d appreciate the help .

Please note the chart I’ve posted is yesterday’s run . 
 

Kind Regards 

Mark

[ribster]

2 hours ago, clark3r said:

If bookies were taking bets on what week will be the best of summer I would bet on 2nd week of august right now

Not exactly a lofty accolade though is it...

[Allseasons-Si]

Guys,thanks for all the likes and support in here,much appreciated and i have never liked so much posts during the summer months as it is usually dead in here and i thank you for all your hard work,i could be mistaken for it to be in the winter months on here right now

anyway to add to the upgrades here is the EPS height and 850's temps anomaly's

last night showed a NW-SE split in temps with the far SE showing a positive temp anomaly,and look at it now

trough stalled further west of the UK where as it was just off the coast of Ireland last evening and more of a positive temp anomaly covering most of the UK

bed beckons and and stay safe all

night guys.