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Model output discussion - into July 2020


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
5 minutes ago, Don said:

July 2020 is looking like a back to front July 2015!

Northolt .

 

GFS at the peak of the heat .

2392D69A-64CC-44D2-9A6C-4AC38BC54EB7.png

223F05C1-1619-4487-8F8D-AFCDAB92D633.png
 

UKMO a little hotter

752C6B3B-94C9-471D-A28C-0E1419339CB2.gif

8762B31B-7424-4E77-B6CA-9D1A2385069F.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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5 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Yes just 36 hours of hot uppers from 12Z Thu to 00Z Saturday for most, very brief really then back to near normal from Saturday. 

Saturday is no longer more than average for 95+% of UK, the 10C 850 Isotherm clears the east coast rapidly by midday on both the GFS & ICON, only parts Kent, Norfolk & Suffolk look like getting to 25C, hardly warm for the 1st August.   

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Saturday is no longer more than average for 95+% of UK, the 10C 850 Isotherm clears the east coast rapidly by midday on both the GFS & ICON, only parts Kent, Norfolk & Suffolk look like getting to 25C, hardly warm for the 1st August.   

I suspect it will still reach 27C or so with the residual warmth from the previous night, which may counteract the falling away of the upper air temps.

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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I suspect it will still reach 27C or so with the residual warmth from the previous night, which may counteract the falling away of the upper air temps.

Maybe but it'll be in the extreme east anywhere west of a line Cambridge down to London will struggle to get above 23/24C - Also in these situations the models do a terrible job in predicting cloud the day after a plume exits. Back in June most places in the west struggle to get above 20C on the Friday while the east was above 30C, forecast for Bournemouth was 27C, only just made 21C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Aprege a couple of 35c there .

CBC082F0-A97A-4EA3-BC2F-4701BA91B10A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

20c isotherm in place for the SE on the 12z ECM

@72

ECM0-72.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Ecm 192 Hrs ,

90C652AC-7761-4C63-8DA6-06DC6B125820.gif
 

And then ....Round 2 anyone ?

6C6D8974-FD54-407C-A05A-16E8D682DF2B.gif

01751874-8DF2-43DC-9CE7-BDC9B88136EF.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

And finally . I’d take this run thanks or the GFS I’m not that picky honest

6C8428B3-1F89-446D-B47D-EC0F34BC423E.gif

69B7FBC3-4C54-4219-9B6F-129F6EE72C8A.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

BANK 

2110688620_ECM1-216(4).thumb.gif.7a080676237145d2605998720679d04a.gif   1518656863_ECM1-240(4).thumb.gif.7704937bd4885a26bf51d191df53ecfc.gif

@216 and @240

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
4 hours ago, Ice Day said:

I agree, 72 hours does though!  I would say your location is looking good for a 'summery few days'.

image.thumb.png.4d9ef719b8cd1481a404a9f031b27ab5.png

and of course removing hours for darkness reduces that by a good 25.5 hours

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Even the mean is bringing a baking day for Friday.. Beyond that its more changeable, but again hints towards the end of the run of things settling down again, especially for more Southern parts of the UK... enjoy the next few days.. 

EDM1-72.gif

EDM0-72.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

0_798362e45be379814222f6fcbf360543.jpg

Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Mean ECM @ day ten,BANK!!!

EDM1-240.thumb.gif.21f06a80b6ffe504c01ff286922476d9.gifgraphe_ens3_rvm1.thumb.png.ac78dc8fc972051be2fe7f1eaaf9b963.png

and the op was a cool outlier at that,second plume anyone.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Mean ECM @ day ten,BANK!!!

EDM1-240.thumb.gif.21f06a80b6ffe504c01ff286922476d9.gifgraphe_ens3_rvm1.thumb.png.ac78dc8fc972051be2fe7f1eaaf9b963.png

and the op was a cool outlier at that,second plume anyone.

 

Love it si...problem is that's the 0z ensemble graph..

Here you go mate... 

graphe0_00_286_73___.png

graphe1_00_286_73___.png

Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Love it si...problem is that's the 0z ensemble graph..

Whoooops!!!

that's what i get for watching who want's to be a millionaire at the same time:vava:

warm outlier it is then:oldlaugh:

graphe_ens3_xid6.thumb.png.00cd50c86cde5653f6829a4a0a3a9400.png

the day ten mean still looks good though Matt

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Whoooops!!!

that's what i get for watching who want's to be a millionaire at the same time:vava:

warm outlier it is then:oldlaugh:

graphe_ens3_xid6.thumb.png.00cd50c86cde5653f6829a4a0a3a9400.png

Didn’t the ecm a few days ago first sniff out the upcoming plume with a outlier op at the time ?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Didn’t the ecm a few days ago first sniff out the upcoming plume with a outlier op at the time ?

To be honest Mark,it's always an outlier in the realms of day ten

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

To be honest Mark,it's always an outlier in the realms of day ten

Here 22nd of Julys Ecm 12z outlier ... tonight’s seems more out of kilter though if that makes sense .

12361F58-852B-46AF-8F15-60FFAD53E878.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Holy sheet!

Iv'e got to weed the Pod People (squashes) on Friday...If I fall asleep - we're all doomed!

image.png.69ecbbba74898fa697bbe7bc1868bf73.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM ensembles provides about 25% support for a fresh injection of warmth from the south by D9/D10 - so not really the majority line. I still think the better chance of new temperature rises will come a few days after that. 

Back to this Friday, ECM op run now has a raw maximum of 32C in the south east, which could transmit to an actual maximum of 34/35C - so maybe a coming together with ARPEGE? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A glimmer on hope and possibly settling down again after next week as we go into August 

CPC,EPS and the ec46 gif courtesy of Matt Hugo.

814day_03.thumb.gif.72fd08e471c9476818076881b31a3da0.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.145b19159daec05135b580d311ef6b56.png

 

i did say last night that there might be a second surge of the Azores hp cell coming to visit,i felt it in my bones:whistling:

enjoy the rest of the week guys and especially Friday,it looks a scorchio now.

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