Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00Z temperatures for Friday unchanged from previous runs, so the ARPEGE is a bit on its own with such a high figure, though it seems a fairly reasonable figure bearing in mind the set-up. 

[Methuselah]

Good morning, folks...Going by today's GFS 00Z, Friday will not be suited to working inside polytunnels!

    

But nothing spectacular follows the hot snap, so uncertainty may be the key, as there's plenty of scatter:

    

    

Have a good one, folks!

[mushymanrob]

7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Clusters tonight - looks inevitable that there will be at best a changeable period (at worst unsettled) next week

Plenty of encouragement thereafter though, the majority of ensembles raise heights close to UK by D13

Thats in broad agreement with these..

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by mushymanrob

[Yarmy]

The Arpege mentioned above has the sweet spot around about Heathrow at 4pm:

 

So 36C+ not out of the question somewhere according to that. Not much sign of a thundery breakdown anywhere as yet though.

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Lovely Summer’s day for the people up on the Orkney Islands...gales and heavy rain! 

 

Tell you what Thursday is looking lovely down South...rainfall over my house of course!  
As ever with cloud cover/rainfall at this range...subject to change.

Latest UKV: Thursday 15:00 snapshot - high of 27C.

 

Friday is now showing 32C in the South East - also nudging 30C in places like Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield. 
As others have discussed cloud cover/scattered convection breaking out mid/late afternoon - risk of thunderstorms overnight. (Again subject to change of course at this range)

If I was a betting man I would go with a maximum of 33/34C being recorded on Friday.

So for the first time this month my location will reach 20C (expecting at least 25C) and finally 30C will be registered for the UK this July! 

Have a good day! 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Captain Shortwave]

The deviation in temperatures seems to be coming from a shallow wave that could develop across the south of England that would bring the risk of showers/thunderstorms developing.

   
 

This moves slowly eastwards, ahead of this with a near straight southerly then it will become hot. So it depends on how quickly this shallow feature moves east (if it  does actually exist on the day of course). But you can see why the models are picking up cloud and showers off the surface charts. I am still punting from around the 34c mark.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

22 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wrf nmm eu gets the 20C 850s into tho S / SE and the 14C 850s just about grazing here, still a while to go before any confidence over potential storms but shows an area of 30 C from the SE edging westwards and 24C up here which u can usually add a degree or two on to that 

Bit of an upgrade on the plume, now comfortably gets the +20 C 850s into the S/SE with the +22C 850s not that far off the south coast, also now the +14C 850s much further west and as a result those temperatures get a further degree or two added on. 

[Mark wheeler]

Good old Navgem

 

Like the Aprege has 36c

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Ice Day]

Well, we are nailed on for a few summery and hot days, which at least takes July out on a high.  What happens in early August is now next on the agenda and based on this mornings ECM mean, it looks like days 8-10 are relatively settled, better the further south you are as usual.  Looking at the 850's, it should also be fairly warm. 

   

These 850's would probably equate to temps of low to mid 20's, obviously depending on cloud cover etc.  Not brilliant, but no washout either.  

Edited July 28, 2020 by Ice Day

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Like the Aprege has 36c

 

I hope not!  So easy to achieve exceptionally high temps these days when the setup allows!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Closer inspection of last night's EC weeklies brings more of settled Conditions out towards mid month and out till the end end of the month.. Especially away from the far North where occasional interference from troughs situated over Iceland are possible.. Overall the Azores High is extending ridges more frequently than we have been accustomed to so far this Summer.. Temps perhaps around or slightly above average, but this doesn't mean warmer spells won't be possible at such a range. All in all its a far more positive run for something better to end our Summer on. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Djdazzle]

If we achieve 35C, it will be the third year in a row to do so. When you think how rare it used to be, it’s quite scary.

Since 1950, it has been achieved in 1957, 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019.

[summer blizzard]

I think 34C personally. The setup shifts quicker than 2015/2019 meaning that you don't get even a day's proper preconditioning.

[Man With Beard]

Clusters this morning continue to signal changeable weather next week, and whilst the south may see some pauses on Atlantic activity at times, probably not a great week at all further north. Only consolation, the flow looks generally south of west, so never too cool except under rain bands.

Into the weekend, though, it looks like the pattern may become a little more buckled. Several of the clusters at T288 show potential for a plume or strong continental influence (clusters 3, 4 and 5). Cluster 2 looks like a NW/SE split (could be quite good in the south), whilst cluster 1 is alone in persisting Atlantic dominance for all areas. Not too sure how to summarise the chart, but, with the cluster populations quite evenly split, my punt will be for some sort of ridge to make its presence felt around the timeframe, and that would probably mean something warmer. 

[MKN]

2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

If we achieve 35C, it will be the third year in a row to do so. When you think how rare it used to be, it’s quite scary.

Since 1950, it has been achieved in 1957, 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019.

Where did you find that info? 

[Djdazzle]

14 minutes ago, MKN said:

Where did you find that info? 

I just accumulated it from years of reading about the weather and belonging to forums!

[Gordon Webb]

4 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Well, we are nailed on for a few summery and hot days, which at least takes July out on a high.  What happens in early August is now next on the agenda and based on this mornings ECM mean, it looks like days 8-10 are relatively settled, better the further south you are as usual.  Looking at the 850's, it should also be fairly warm. 

   

These 850's would probably equate to temps of low to mid 20's, obviously depending on cloud cover etc.  Not brilliant, but no washout either.  

Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

Thurs looks very warm and mainly sunny for most and Fri is hot, Sat also fairly warm...so a ‘summery’ few days ...

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

That model has got to be smoking something. That's at 7pm as well so if you add a few degrees onto that it would probably show something around 38-39c.

No its the maximum in the preceding period to 19Z. I think the ICON 06Z also has a couple of 35c now. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Guest

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

That model has got to be smoking something. That's at 7pm as well so if you add a few degrees onto that it would probably show something around 38-39c.

It'll be the maximum temperature within the preceding 12 hour period. The Aperge does though tend to overdo temperatures this far out under these setups.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It'll be the maximum temperature within the preceding 12 hour period. The Aperge does though tend to overdo temperatures this far out under these setups.

Its usually 0.5-1.5C OTT. Usually if you split the difference from ECM/GFS to Arpege thats a decent ballpark.

[Ice Day]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

Wasn't Aware 36 hours constitutes a few days

I agree, 72 hours does though!  I would say your location is looking good for a 'summery few days'.

[Methuselah]

5 hours ago, Don said:

I hope not!  So easy to achieve exceptionally high temps these days when the setup allows!

Well, if it does exceed 36C, I hope it's neither at Heathrow nor Cambridge Botanical Gardens: I'm fed up of hearing about 'jet exhausts' and 'encroachment'... and was hoping for a year off!

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I think 34C personally. The setup shifts quicker than 2015/2019 meaning that you don't get even a day's proper preconditioning.

I think that's a big statement- the conditions are there for somewhere to get higher than that. Also Thursday is looking hot in the south. I don't see how this spell is that much shorter than the June/July spell in 2015, which also only had one very warm/hot day before the really hot one.

[Don]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, if it does exceed 36C, I hope it's neither at Heathrow nor Cambridge Botanical Gardens: I'm fed up of hearing about 'jet exhausts' and 'encroachment'... and was hoping for a year off!

July 2020 is looking like a back to front July 2015!