Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120, heat poised to pounce:

Heights/pressure chart:

I like that style of posting Mike - ignore the rest of the ECM and sneak the latest JMA charts in straight after. 

Then usually the GEM gets rushed out as it shows the most extreme uppers that never actually become reality. 

ECM:

 

 

Northern parts get a day and a half of warm/hot temperatures! South East might squeeze out two and a half days! Then we are back in the crud. (South East included) 

ECM 216 & 240 rainfall:

 

You know what though? July has been that bad up here I will take any warmth/sunshine I can get! So bring on that thirty six hours or so of proper Summer weather! 

Thirty miles down the coast from me on this day one month ago - Summer has not paid us a visit since!  (Max of 28C here)

I love Summer but if we (up North) are going to be subjected to these current outlook/charts for the next five weeks - just let it be over already and bring on the good stuff...

 

Hopefully the last few frames of the ECM are a huge outlier.

All the best everyone and have a good night.

Edited July 25, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Djdazzle]

Pretty sure that ECM op will be a big outlier from 144. It’s almost perfection how it unravels from the very promising 120 chart. Still, this is why FI is just that.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I like that style of posting Mike - ignore the rest of the ECM and sneak the latest JMA charts in straight after. 

.

Well it is FI after all, I certainly wouldn’t want to claim to predict anything post day 6 at the moment.  And the end of the 12z ECM is like the end of the world, you won’t notice it until it has happened, then it is too late...

Edited July 25, 2020 by Mike Poole

[ribster]

19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Deep FI. But the ECM is total rubbish, it has to be said.

Was attempting to show an opposing view to the one way street of traffic, easy for someone new to be mislead...

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, ribster said:

Was attempting to show an opposing view to the one way street of traffic, easy for someone new to be mislead...

Which is fine. However, I don’t think many of us think the plume will last long.

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, ribster said:

easy for someone new to be mislead...

I'm not new, but seeing a single chart posted with a caption of "hmm" underneath it wasn't particularly helpful either. 

[Man With Beard]

9 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Using ECM raw temps plus 2-3C (a technique that we used very successfully last July), the forthcoming hot snap might produce UK maximums of:

Thursday 26/27C

Friday 29/30C

Saturday 32/33C

Sunday 24/25C

Still a little too far out for confidence but we should start to get a fairly certain picture by Monday, I'd guess. 

 

Using same calculations on the ECM 12Z

Thursday 26/27C

Friday 30/31C

Saturday 32/33C (strictly SE corner only)

Sunday 25/26C

Away from central/eastern England, Friday is the day to watch, with high 20Cs possible in favoured spots of the NE and Scotland, and 30C possible in the best spots in Wales too. If this forecast doesn't hold, July will have passed without a single hot day in some of these parts.

[Frosty.]

T+144 hours is pretty beautiful from the ECM 12z operational..if you love plumes!!..and the heat persists further SE on Saturday too!

 

Edited July 25, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Which is fine. However, I don’t think many of us think the plume will last long.

The plume itself, no, it is a next weekend thing.  But after, signals of increasing AAM are starting to come into the reliable, CFS take:

Totally against my summer forecast for sure, but could we be about to see a poor summer resurrected by a decent August?  

[Mr Frost]

22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Using same calculations on the ECM 12Z

Thursday 26/27C

Friday 30/31C

Saturday 32/33C (strictly SE corner only)

Sunday 25/26C

Away from central/eastern England, Friday is the day to watch, with high 20Cs possible in favoured spots of the NE and Scotland, and 30C possible in the best spots in Wales too. If this forecast doesn't hold, July will have passed without a single hot day in some of these parts.

Indeed - not hit 20C IMBY so far this month which is truly woeful! Summer 2018 and 2019 raised the bar too high for me! 

UKV for the 30th July - take with a large pinch of salt at this range of course! Lovely Summer’s day for many.

As you say though...31st July is the one to keep an eye on for areas further North. 

 

Great model/chart viewing at last!

Edited July 25, 2020 by Mr Frost

[summer blizzard]

Euro on board with near neutral GLAAM on the positive side. I think some are getting OTT though in thinking that positive GLAAM cures all things.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The plume itself, no, it is a next weekend thing.  But after, signals of increasing AAM are starting to come into the reliable, CFS take:

Totally against my summer forecast for sure, but could we be about to see a poor summer resurrected by a decent August?  

Not so sure Mike, and I would love to be proven wrong, but at this stage it looks to me like a mixed and changeable first half of August, with perhaps a better spell towards mid month. 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro on board with near neutral GLAAM on the positive side. I think some are getting OTT though in thinking that positive GLAAM cures all things.

Nothing cures all things, either in weather or life @summer blizzard, but an upsurge in AAM at the moment really could turn our fortunes around for the rest of summer, although more likely for benefit of the south east and less likely for the north west.  We will see.. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Regarding tonight's ECM operational, perhaps a little severe with those falling Heights and temperatures.. But the mean does show a gradual decline in pressure later.. So perhaps becoming more mixed towards the latter half of next Weekend. 

[Captain Shortwave]

So the ridge building at in the second half of next week looks secure, but how things transpire look uncertain still.

So the Atlantic low looks to join the main trough instead of the hope it would remain cut off. So it will be a brief event, however we also have a large blocking high over northern Russia that will interact with the ridge building through the U.K. subsequently we have a trough west of us and a deep cut off low over Eastern Europe so the risk of our ridge sheering is sufficient to not only block to push of significant heat northwards (See UKMO), but also later on for the jetstream to break through and push back through the U.K. again. Plume events tend to see surface heights over the northern mainland of Europe with winds from the south/south east. Strong sheering of the ridge will put it further north over Scandinavia with cooler air from the east undercutting the heat trying to build nortowards.

Something to watch over the coming 48 hours. Hopefully we will see a cleaner clearance of the low during the first half of this week for a start.

[summer blizzard]

56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Nothing cures all things, either in weather or life @summer blizzard, but an upsurge in AAM at the moment really could turn our fortunes around for the rest of summer, although more likely for benefit of the south east and less likely for the north west.  We will see.. 

Perhaps however the stats for August’s following sub 15.7C July’s are not good.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

Perhaps however the stats for August’s following sub 15.7C July’s are not good.

Well that is a completely different issue isn’t it?   My thoughts about summer, and I posted them on here, you can look them up, were about propensity for Azores ridge in the early part of summer, until La Niña took hold.  None of that really happened, now I think increased AAM will deliver a better more settled last third of summer, although not sure how far north west this will extend.  

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z has the low held back in the Atlantic at the end of the short run, T120 compared with T126 on 12z:

Heat building T120 though:

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z has the low held back in the Atlantic at the end of the short run, T120 compared with T126 on 12z:

Heat building T120 though:

 

Edited July 25, 2020 by Mike Poole
Sorry, seem to have quoted myself.

[ribster]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not new, but seeing a single chart posted with a caption of "hmm" underneath it wasn't particularly helpful either. 

Not new? Stone the crows, point taken though

[Mike Poole]

Pub run out to T120, it is a plume all right , seems to me anyway:

[Mark wheeler]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run out to T120, it is a plume all right , seems to me anyway:

Lots to like on this run so far .

[Mike Poole]

Now here’s the thing, pub run T168 showing the kind of evolution I might expect given earlier discussion re AAM building:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS temperature charts for later next week show the core of the heat through Friday and Saturday, with cooler conditions by Sunday. Some serious Heat in the states I've noticed also.. Approaching 100f over the next couple of days towards New York for instance.. We really have had to endure the crappy end of the stick this Summer.. I hope the roles are reversed come Winter. 

Edit.. I feel the GFS is again under cooking those temperatures by several degrees. 

Edited July 25, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Man With Beard]

My updated predictions based upon the latest ECM 00Z raw temps 

Thurs 27/28C

Friday 31/32C

Saturday 31/32C

Sunday 23/24C